我国“科学-技术-经济”产出的动态关系测度研究——基于“科学-技术”交互的视角
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摘要
正确认识科学、技术和经济三者之间的关系,把握科学技术和经济发展间相互作用的规律,有着极其重要的理论和实际意义。基于此背景,本文从科学与技术交互的视角,运用向量自回归模型、脉冲响应函数以及方差分解的方法,试图对我国科学、技术和经济产出三者间的动态关系进行模型分析。研究结论显示,科学产出和技术产出之间相互促进;相比技术产出,科学产出可以更好地促进经济产出;经济产出促进技术产出的效果要好于对科学产出的促进作用;进一步得出,"科学-技术"交互效应是存在的,并且对经济产出具有重要推动作用,经济发展情况对"科学-技术"交互效应的实现也有着重要影响。
Understanding correctly the relationship among science,technology and economy,and grasping the law of interaction between science and technology and economic development have an extremely important theoretical and practical significance. In fact,a large number of studies usually concentrate on the relationship among science,technology and economy independently,but they do not pay enough attention to the relationship between the "scientific & technical"interaction and economic development. Based on this background,this paper stands at the perspective of the separation of science and technology firstly,and uses the method of Granger causality test to explore the relationship among science,technology and economy. Then from the perspective of the interaction between science and technology,this paper uses the expanded Cobb Douglas production function,vector autoregressive model,impulse response function and variance decomposition method to measure the dynamic relationship of science,technology and economy output in China and demonstrate between the "scientific & technical"interaction and economic development. The scientific output data of this research comes from the Web of Science database and the Chinese CSCD database,and the technical output data comes from the China Statistical Yearbooks on Science and Technology( 1991-2017),and the economic output data comes from the China Statistical Yearbooks( 1991-2017),and the interaction between science and technology is obtained by product term of them. The conclusions show that scientific output is the Granger cause of technical output,and technical output is also the Granger cause of scientific output. It means that scientific output and technological output can promote each other. Scientific output is the Granger cause of economic output,but technical output is not the Granger cause of economic output. Compared with technological output,scientific output can better promote economic output. Economic output is not the Granger cause of scientific output,but in the long run,economic output is the Granger cause of technical output. Economic output promotes technical output better than scientific output. Further,the "scientific & technical"interaction is the Granger cause of economic output,but economic output does not constitute the Granger cause of the"scientific & technical"interaction. It shows that the"scientific & technical"interaction effect exists,and it plays an important role in promoting economic output. The economic development situation also has an important and unstable impact on the realization of the "scientific &technical"interaction effect.
Understanding correctly the relationship among science,technology and economy,and grasping the law of interaction between science and technology and economic development have an extremely important theoretical and practical significance. In fact,a large number of studies usually concentrate on the relationship among science,technology and economy independently,but they do not pay enough attention to the relationship between the "scientific & technical"interaction and economic development. Based on this background,this paper stands at the perspective of the separation of science and technology firstly,and uses the method of Granger causality test to explore the relationship among science,technology and economy. Then from the perspective of the interaction between science and technology,this paper uses the expanded Cobb Douglas production function,vector autoregressive model,impulse response function and variance decomposition method to measure the dynamic relationship of science,technology and economy output in China and demonstrate between the "scientific & technical"interaction and economic development. The scientific output data of this research comes from the Web of Science database and the Chinese CSCD database,and the technical output data comes from the China Statistical Yearbooks on Science and Technology( 1991-2017),and the economic output data comes from the China Statistical Yearbooks( 1991-2017),and the interaction between science and technology is obtained by product term of them. The conclusions show that scientific output is the Granger cause of technical output,and technical output is also the Granger cause of scientific output. It means that scientific output and technological output can promote each other. Scientific output is the Granger cause of economic output,but technical output is not the Granger cause of economic output. Compared with technological output,scientific output can better promote economic output. Economic output is not the Granger cause of scientific output,but in the long run,economic output is the Granger cause of technical output. Economic output promotes technical output better than scientific output. Further,the "scientific & technical"interaction is the Granger cause of economic output,but economic output does not constitute the Granger cause of the"scientific & technical"interaction. It shows that the"scientific & technical"interaction effect exists,and it plays an important role in promoting economic output. The economic development situation also has an important and unstable impact on the realization of the "scientific &technical"interaction effect.
引文
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[14]A P.Rising R&D intensity and economic growth[J].Economic Inquiry,2014,52(4):1427-1445.
[15]Chu A C,Cozzi G.R&D and economic growth in a cash in advance economy[J].International Economic Review,2014,55(2):507-524.
[16]鞠树成.中国专利产出与经济增长关系的实证研究[J].科学管理研究,2005(5):102-105.Ju Shucheng.Research on relationship between patent output and economic growth in china[J].Scientific Management Research,2005(5):102-105.
[17]赵喜仓,任洋.R&D投入、专利产出效率和经济增长实力的动态关系研究---基于江苏省13个地级市面板数据的PVAR分析[J].软科学,2014,28(10):18-21+26.Zhao Xicang,Ren Yang.Study on the dynamic relationship among R&D input,patent output efficiency and economic growth strength---Based on 13 cities’panel VAR model in Jiangsu province[J].Soft Science,2014,28(10):18-21+26.
[18]Lee L C,Lin P H,Chuang Y W,et al.Research output and economic productivity:A granger causality test[J].Scientometrics,2011,89(2):465-478.
[19]Chong H Y,Digangi S,Jannasch-Pennell A.A time-lag analysis of the relationships among PISA scores,scientific research publication,and economic performance[J].Social Indicators Research,2012,107(2):317-330.
[20]Solarin S A,Yen Y Y.A global analysis of the impact of research output on economic growth[J].Scientometrics,2016,108(2):855-874.
[21]Inglesi-Lotz R,Balcilar M,Gupta R.Time-varying causality between research output and economic growth in US[J].Scientometrics,2014,100(1):203-216.
[22]Ntuli H,Inglesi-Lotz R,Chang T,et al.Does research output cause economic growth or vice versa?Evidence from 34OECD countries[J].Journal of the Association for Information Science&Technology,2015,66(8):1709-1716.
[23]Hatemij A,Ajmi A N,Montasser G E,et al.Research output and economic growth in G7 countries:New evidence from asymmetric panel causality testing[J].Applied Economics,2016,48(24):2301-2308.
[24]吴晓波,郑素丽.科学、技术的互动及其对经济发展的影响:基于panel data的实证研究[J].科学学研究,2005(6):740-745.Wu Xiaobo,Zheng Suli.Science,technology and their contribution to economic development:Empirical study of China[J].Studies in Science of Science,2005(6):740-745.
[25]官建成,何颖.科学-技术-经济的联结与创新绩效的国际比较研究[J].管理科学学报,2009,12(5):61-77.Guan Jiancheng,He Ying.Linkage amongst science,technology and economy and international comparison of innovation performance[J].Journal of Management Sciences in China,2009,12(5):61-77.
[26]黄远浙,俞立平,杨丽华.科学、技术与经济增长:一个新的分析框架---基于科学与技术分离的实证研究[J].科学学研究,2013,31(7):961-969.Huang Yuanzhe,Yu Liping,Yang Lihua.A new analysis framework on science,technology and economic growth[J].Studies in Science of Science,2013,31(7):961-969.
[27]刘宁.科学、技术对经济增长贡献的绩效研究---基于科学与技术分离的视角[J].科学学与科学技术管理,2013,34(10):03-12.Liu Ning.Study on effect and efficiency of science and technology to economic growth:Based on the separation of science and technology perspective[J].Science of Science and Management of S.&T.,2013,34(10):03-12.
[28]Rosenberg N.Exploring the black box:Technology,economics,and history[M].Cambridge University Press,1994.
[29]Inglesi-Lotz R,Pouris A.The influence of scientific research output of academics on economic growth in South Africa:An autoregressive distributed lag(ARDL)application[J].Scientometrics,2013,95(1):129-139.
[30]刘则渊,陈悦.新巴斯德象限:高科技政策的新范式[J].管理学报,2007(3):346-353.Liu Zeyuan,Chen Yue.New pasteur’s quadrant:New paradigm of high-tech policies[J].Chinese Journal of Management,2007(3):346-353.
[31]眭纪刚.科学与技术:关系演进与政策涵义[J].科学学研究,2009,27(6):801-807.Sui Jigang.Science and technology:Relationship evolution and policy meaning[J].Studies in Science of Science,2009,27(6):801-807.
[32]Cobb C W,Douglas P H.A theory of production[J].American Economic Review,1928,18(1):139-165.
[33]J.Sengupta.Estimating technical change by nonparametric methods[J].Applied Economics,2004(12):23-35.
[34]高铁梅.计量经济分析方法与建模[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2006:249-268.Gao Tiemei.Econometric analysis method and modeling[M].Beijing:Tsinghua University Press,2006:249-268.
[35]李敬,陈澍,万广华,付陈梅.中国区域经济增长的空间关联及其解释---基于网络分析方法[J].经济研究,2014,49(11):04-16.Li Jing,Chen Shu,Wan Guanghua,Fu Chenmei.Study on the spatial correlation and explanation of regional economic growth in China:Based on analytic network process[J].Economic Research Journal,2014,49(11):04-16.
[2]赵红州.科学史数理分析[M].石家庄:河北教育出版社,2001:260-261.Zhao Hongzhou.Mathematical analysis of history of science[M].Shijiazhuang:Hebei Education Press,2001:260-261.
[3]德雷克·普赖斯,陈悦.关于研究的研究[J].科学学研究,2013,31(12):1781-1789.D J D S Price,Chen Yue.Research on research[J].Studies in Science of Science,2013,31(12):1781-1789.
[4]夏清月.试论科学、技术、经济间的关系[J].系统工程理论与实践,1989(2):37-41.Xia Qingyue.Discussion on the relationship between science,technology and economy[J].Systems Engineering-Theory&Practice,1989(2):37-41.
[5]万必奇.论当代科学、技术、经济发展模式[J].自然辩证法通讯,1993(6):31-34+30.Wan Biqi.Discussion on the contemporary science,technology and economic development mode[J].Journal of Dialectics of Nature,1993(6):31-34+30.
[6]Aghion P,David P A,Foray D.Science,technology and innovation for economic growth:Linking policy research and practice in‘STIG Systems’[J].Mpra Paper,2009,38(4):681-693.
[7]刘则渊,王海山.近代世界哲学高潮和科学中心关系的历史考察[J].科研管理,1981(1):09-23.Liu Zeyuan,Wang Haishan.Examining the historical relationship between the climax of modern world philosophy and the center of science[J].Science Research Management,1981(1):09-23.
[8]赵红洲.科学能力学引论[M].北京:科学出版社,1984:192.Zhao Hongzhou.Introduction to scientific competence theory[M].Beijing:Science Press,1984:192.
[9]Tussen R J W,Buter R K,Leeuwen T N V.Technological relevance of science:An assessment of citation linkages between patents and research papers[J].Scientometrics,2000,47(2):389-412.
[10]Smith Adam,郭大力,王亚南.国民财富的性质和原因的研究[M].北京:商务印书馆,1974.Smith Adam,Guo Dali,Wang Yanan.An inquiry into the nature and causes of the wealth of nations[M].Beijing:Commercial Press,1974.
[11]List F.The national system of political economy[M].The Two Narratives of Political Economy.John Wiley&Sons,Inc.2004:243-246.
[12]熊彼特.经济发展理论[M].北京:商务印书局,1990.J.A.Schumpeter.The theory of economic development[M].Beijing:Commercial press,1990.
[13]Romer P M.Increasing returns and long-run growth[J].Journal of Political Economy,1986,94(5):1002-1037.
[14]A P.Rising R&D intensity and economic growth[J].Economic Inquiry,2014,52(4):1427-1445.
[15]Chu A C,Cozzi G.R&D and economic growth in a cash in advance economy[J].International Economic Review,2014,55(2):507-524.
[16]鞠树成.中国专利产出与经济增长关系的实证研究[J].科学管理研究,2005(5):102-105.Ju Shucheng.Research on relationship between patent output and economic growth in china[J].Scientific Management Research,2005(5):102-105.
[17]赵喜仓,任洋.R&D投入、专利产出效率和经济增长实力的动态关系研究---基于江苏省13个地级市面板数据的PVAR分析[J].软科学,2014,28(10):18-21+26.Zhao Xicang,Ren Yang.Study on the dynamic relationship among R&D input,patent output efficiency and economic growth strength---Based on 13 cities’panel VAR model in Jiangsu province[J].Soft Science,2014,28(10):18-21+26.
[18]Lee L C,Lin P H,Chuang Y W,et al.Research output and economic productivity:A granger causality test[J].Scientometrics,2011,89(2):465-478.
[19]Chong H Y,Digangi S,Jannasch-Pennell A.A time-lag analysis of the relationships among PISA scores,scientific research publication,and economic performance[J].Social Indicators Research,2012,107(2):317-330.
[20]Solarin S A,Yen Y Y.A global analysis of the impact of research output on economic growth[J].Scientometrics,2016,108(2):855-874.
[21]Inglesi-Lotz R,Balcilar M,Gupta R.Time-varying causality between research output and economic growth in US[J].Scientometrics,2014,100(1):203-216.
[22]Ntuli H,Inglesi-Lotz R,Chang T,et al.Does research output cause economic growth or vice versa?Evidence from 34OECD countries[J].Journal of the Association for Information Science&Technology,2015,66(8):1709-1716.
[23]Hatemij A,Ajmi A N,Montasser G E,et al.Research output and economic growth in G7 countries:New evidence from asymmetric panel causality testing[J].Applied Economics,2016,48(24):2301-2308.
[24]吴晓波,郑素丽.科学、技术的互动及其对经济发展的影响:基于panel data的实证研究[J].科学学研究,2005(6):740-745.Wu Xiaobo,Zheng Suli.Science,technology and their contribution to economic development:Empirical study of China[J].Studies in Science of Science,2005(6):740-745.
[25]官建成,何颖.科学-技术-经济的联结与创新绩效的国际比较研究[J].管理科学学报,2009,12(5):61-77.Guan Jiancheng,He Ying.Linkage amongst science,technology and economy and international comparison of innovation performance[J].Journal of Management Sciences in China,2009,12(5):61-77.
[26]黄远浙,俞立平,杨丽华.科学、技术与经济增长:一个新的分析框架---基于科学与技术分离的实证研究[J].科学学研究,2013,31(7):961-969.Huang Yuanzhe,Yu Liping,Yang Lihua.A new analysis framework on science,technology and economic growth[J].Studies in Science of Science,2013,31(7):961-969.
[27]刘宁.科学、技术对经济增长贡献的绩效研究---基于科学与技术分离的视角[J].科学学与科学技术管理,2013,34(10):03-12.Liu Ning.Study on effect and efficiency of science and technology to economic growth:Based on the separation of science and technology perspective[J].Science of Science and Management of S.&T.,2013,34(10):03-12.
[28]Rosenberg N.Exploring the black box:Technology,economics,and history[M].Cambridge University Press,1994.
[29]Inglesi-Lotz R,Pouris A.The influence of scientific research output of academics on economic growth in South Africa:An autoregressive distributed lag(ARDL)application[J].Scientometrics,2013,95(1):129-139.
[30]刘则渊,陈悦.新巴斯德象限:高科技政策的新范式[J].管理学报,2007(3):346-353.Liu Zeyuan,Chen Yue.New pasteur’s quadrant:New paradigm of high-tech policies[J].Chinese Journal of Management,2007(3):346-353.
[31]眭纪刚.科学与技术:关系演进与政策涵义[J].科学学研究,2009,27(6):801-807.Sui Jigang.Science and technology:Relationship evolution and policy meaning[J].Studies in Science of Science,2009,27(6):801-807.
[32]Cobb C W,Douglas P H.A theory of production[J].American Economic Review,1928,18(1):139-165.
[33]J.Sengupta.Estimating technical change by nonparametric methods[J].Applied Economics,2004(12):23-35.
[34]高铁梅.计量经济分析方法与建模[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2006:249-268.Gao Tiemei.Econometric analysis method and modeling[M].Beijing:Tsinghua University Press,2006:249-268.
[35]李敬,陈澍,万广华,付陈梅.中国区域经济增长的空间关联及其解释---基于网络分析方法[J].经济研究,2014,49(11):04-16.Li Jing,Chen Shu,Wan Guanghua,Fu Chenmei.Study on the spatial correlation and explanation of regional economic growth in China:Based on analytic network process[J].Economic Research Journal,2014,49(11):04-16.