1981—2015年阳春市日照时数变化特征
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摘要
利用阳春国家气象观测站1981—2015年日照时数资料,采用线性倾向估计、累积距平、M-K突变检验、滑动t检验、小波分析等方法,分析了近35年阳春市日照时数的变化特征。结果表明,近35年阳春市年日照时数总体呈减少趋势,减少幅度为32.7 h/10 a,其中夏、秋、冬季均呈减少趋势,而春季日照时数则无明显变化趋势;日照时数年变化主要呈一峰一谷型,峰值出现在夏季,谷值出现在春季;年日照时数在时间序列上存在明显的突变,突变现象主要发生在2004年;近35年日照时数变化主要存在16.0、4.0、2.5年的准周期振荡。
Using the data of sunshine hours in Yangchun national meteorological observatory from 1981 to 2015,the change characteristics of sunshine hours in Yangchun City in recent 35 years were analyzed by linear inclination estimation,cumulative anomaly,M-K mutation test,sliding t test and wavelet analysis.The results showed that the annual sunshine hours in Yangchun City showed a decreasing trend of about32.7 h/10 a in the last 35 years,and the summer,autumn and winter showed a decreasing trend,while the sunshine hours in spring was no significant change trend.The annual variation of sunshine hours was mainly peak-valley type,the peak appeared in the summer,the valley appeared in the spring.There were obvious mutations in the time series of the sunshine hours,and the mutation occurred mainly in 2004.The change of sunshine hours in the past 35 years was mainly 16.0,4.0 and 2.5 years of quasi-periodic oscillation.
Using the data of sunshine hours in Yangchun national meteorological observatory from 1981 to 2015,the change characteristics of sunshine hours in Yangchun City in recent 35 years were analyzed by linear inclination estimation,cumulative anomaly,M-K mutation test,sliding t test and wavelet analysis.The results showed that the annual sunshine hours in Yangchun City showed a decreasing trend of about32.7 h/10 a in the last 35 years,and the summer,autumn and winter showed a decreasing trend,while the sunshine hours in spring was no significant change trend.The annual variation of sunshine hours was mainly peak-valley type,the peak appeared in the summer,the valley appeared in the spring.There were obvious mutations in the time series of the sunshine hours,and the mutation occurred mainly in 2004.The change of sunshine hours in the past 35 years was mainly 16.0,4.0 and 2.5 years of quasi-periodic oscillation.
引文
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[4]关磊,邱继玲,尚新梅,等.日照时数变化特征及其对农业的影响[J].中国农业信息,2015(9):90.
[5]曹海珺,曹海鑫,田奉俊,等.日照时数与水稻产量性状的相关分析[J].安徽农学通报,2012,18(19):48-49.
[6]李慧群,付遵涛,闻新宇,等.中国地区日照时数近50年来的变化特征[J].气候与环境研究,2013,18(2):203-209.
[7]叶瑜,苏永秀,李政,等.近50年广西日照时数时空变化特征分析[J].中国农学通报,2013(14):196-201.
[8]彭云峰,王琼.近50年福建省日照时数的变化特征及其影响因素[J].中国农业气象,2011(3):350-355.
[9]丁丽佳,郑有飞,王春林,等.粤东地区近52年日照时数的气候变化特征分析[J].中国农学通报,2011,27(1):175-181.
[10]陈洁雯,郭圳勉,许沛林.佛冈县1957~2011年日照变化特征[J].广东气象,2012,34(5):19-21.
[11]伍红雨,杜尧东,潘蔚娟.近48年华南日照时数的变化特征[J].中山大学学报(自然科学版),2011,50(6):120-124,129.
[12]林良勋,冯业荣,黄忠,等.广东预报员技术手册[M].北京:气象出版社,2006.
[13]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].北京:气象出版社,2007.