“一带一路”贸易网络对中国贸易效率的影响——兼论与TPP、TTIP、RCEP的比较
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摘要
文章运用复杂网络分析法结合随机前沿模型,研究"一带一路"贸易网络的拓扑特征及其对中国进出口贸易效率的影响。在引入TPP、TTIP和RCEP等巨型自贸区贸易网络进行对比的同时,充分考虑了贸易无效率项的异质性。结果表明:区域贸易网络逐渐形成明显的"马太效应",分别以德国、法国和美国为核心的贸易网络社区规模持续扩大,以中国为轴心的贸易网络社区凝聚力不足、离心力增大,面临被边缘化的风险;任务贸易与价值链条交织产生的网络张力,有助于提升我国出口效率、缓解不确定性冲击;对于高中心性发达国家能源资源、高技术产品进口的过度依赖不利于提升进口效率,且长期被动进口的劣势地位也将加剧进口效率的波动。
Using complex network analysis method combined with stochastic frontier model, this article dives into the topological characteristics of the "Belt and Road" trade network and its impacts on the efficiency of China' s import and export trade. Meanwhile, the trade networks such as TPP, TTIP and RCEP are introduced jointly for comparison. Further, the heterogeneity of trade inefficiency items is fully considered. The research results show that the trade network gradually forms an obvious "Matthew effect",with the scale of the trade network communities with the core of Germany, France and the United States, continuing to expand, and showing strong unipolar characteristics and exclusiveness. While,the trade network community with China as the center appears to be of insufficient cohesive force and decreasing centrifugal force, facing the risk of being marginalized. The network tension generated by the intertwined task trade and value chain helps to improve China' s export efficiency and alleviate various uncertainties. By contrast,excessive reliance on energy resource and high-tech product import from high-centralize developed counties is not conducive to China' s import efficiency, and such passive import disadvantage will also increase the fluctuation of import efficiency.
Using complex network analysis method combined with stochastic frontier model, this article dives into the topological characteristics of the "Belt and Road" trade network and its impacts on the efficiency of China' s import and export trade. Meanwhile, the trade networks such as TPP, TTIP and RCEP are introduced jointly for comparison. Further, the heterogeneity of trade inefficiency items is fully considered. The research results show that the trade network gradually forms an obvious "Matthew effect",with the scale of the trade network communities with the core of Germany, France and the United States, continuing to expand, and showing strong unipolar characteristics and exclusiveness. While,the trade network community with China as the center appears to be of insufficient cohesive force and decreasing centrifugal force, facing the risk of being marginalized. The network tension generated by the intertwined task trade and value chain helps to improve China' s export efficiency and alleviate various uncertainties. By contrast,excessive reliance on energy resource and high-tech product import from high-centralize developed counties is not conducive to China' s import efficiency, and such passive import disadvantage will also increase the fluctuation of import efficiency.
引文
[1]DUEAS M,FAGIOLO G.Modeling the international-trade network:a gravity approach[J].Journal of economic interaction and coordination,2013,8(1):155-178.
[2]BLONDEL D,GUILLAUME L,LAMBIOTTE R,et al.Fast unfolding of communities in large networks[J].Journal of statistical mechanics,2008(10):155-168.
[3]NEWMAN M,GIRVAN M.Finding and evaluating community structure in networks[J].Physical review E,2004,69(2):026113.
[4]MEEUSEN W,VAN DEN BROECK J.Efficiency estimation from Cobb-Douglas production functions with composed error[J].International economic review,1977:435-444.
[5]WANG Hungjen.Heteroscedasticity and non-monotonic efficiency effects of a stochastic frontier model[J].Journal of productivity analysis,2002,18(3):241-253.
[6]GREENE W.Fixed and random effects in stochastic frontier models[J].Journal of productivity analysis,2005,23(1):7-32.
[7]张会清.中国与“一带一路”沿线地区的贸易潜力研究[J].国际贸易问题,2017(7):85-95.
[8]陈淑梅,全毅.TPP、RCEP谈判与亚太经济一体化进程[J].亚太经济,2013(02):3-9.
[9]JOHNSON C.Five facts about value-added exports and implications for macroeconomics and trade research[J].Journal of economic perspectives,2014,28(2):119-42.
(1)“一带一路”沿线国家的界定主要参考《推动共建丝绸之路经济带和21世纪海上丝绸之路的愿景与行动》及2018年3月国家“一带一路”官网(www.yidaiyilu.gov.cn)上列出68个国家,限于篇幅,不再详列。
(2)DOTS数据库全面地涵盖了1947年至今所有IMF成员、非成员及世界主要区域的进出口数据,考虑到多数国家进口均按照到岸价(CIF)计算,而出口多按照离岸价(FOB)计算,且各国通常倾向于高估出口而严格监控进口,故而得到的进口数据更为精确,因此文中采用DOTS中的进口数据测度双边贸易关系。
[2]BLONDEL D,GUILLAUME L,LAMBIOTTE R,et al.Fast unfolding of communities in large networks[J].Journal of statistical mechanics,2008(10):155-168.
[3]NEWMAN M,GIRVAN M.Finding and evaluating community structure in networks[J].Physical review E,2004,69(2):026113.
[4]MEEUSEN W,VAN DEN BROECK J.Efficiency estimation from Cobb-Douglas production functions with composed error[J].International economic review,1977:435-444.
[5]WANG Hungjen.Heteroscedasticity and non-monotonic efficiency effects of a stochastic frontier model[J].Journal of productivity analysis,2002,18(3):241-253.
[6]GREENE W.Fixed and random effects in stochastic frontier models[J].Journal of productivity analysis,2005,23(1):7-32.
[7]张会清.中国与“一带一路”沿线地区的贸易潜力研究[J].国际贸易问题,2017(7):85-95.
[8]陈淑梅,全毅.TPP、RCEP谈判与亚太经济一体化进程[J].亚太经济,2013(02):3-9.
[9]JOHNSON C.Five facts about value-added exports and implications for macroeconomics and trade research[J].Journal of economic perspectives,2014,28(2):119-42.
(1)“一带一路”沿线国家的界定主要参考《推动共建丝绸之路经济带和21世纪海上丝绸之路的愿景与行动》及2018年3月国家“一带一路”官网(www.yidaiyilu.gov.cn)上列出68个国家,限于篇幅,不再详列。
(2)DOTS数据库全面地涵盖了1947年至今所有IMF成员、非成员及世界主要区域的进出口数据,考虑到多数国家进口均按照到岸价(CIF)计算,而出口多按照离岸价(FOB)计算,且各国通常倾向于高估出口而严格监控进口,故而得到的进口数据更为精确,因此文中采用DOTS中的进口数据测度双边贸易关系。