1880―2015年汕头降水量变化趋势与全球气候变暖的关系
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摘要
根据汕头气象站1880―2015年逐月降水量资料,采用滤波、线性倾向计算、趋势系数计算、相关分析、谱分析等方法,分析该站近135 a来降水量的变化趋势及其与全球气候变暖的关系,结果得出:1)汕头站近135a来的全年及前汛期、后汛期的降水量变化存在2~7、10和30 a左右的周期变化,没有显著的上升或下降趋势;2)近135 a来汕头的降水量变化与同期全球气候变暖对应关系较为复杂,暖期(1977―2015年)与冷期(1900―1938年)相比,汛期(4―9月)雨量增加68.1 mm,其他月份(旱期)减少64.1 mm,年雨量仅增加4 mm;3)按现用广东省气象局降水气候评价标准,全球气候变暖背景下汕头前汛期降水量正常年景的频率增加、后汛期降水量偏少的概率增多。
In recent years, some investigations have been carried out to study the inter-decadal variability of precipitation in China. The earliest record of rainfall was from 1880 and a total of 127 years of complete records were taken for Shantou. This long precipitation sequence was very important for exploring the rainfall regime for the whole eastern region of Guangdong Province. The long-term changes in precipitation during a whole year, the pre-flood period(Apr.-Jun.), or the post-flood period(Jul.-Sep.), and their relationships with global surface temperature during 1880-2015 were analyzed using precipitation data from the Central Weather Bureau(for years of 1881-1943) and Shantou Meteorology Station(for years of 1951-2015) and global surface temperature data from Had CRUT 4 dataset. The methods of filtering analysis, linear regression analysis, spectral analysis and correlation analysis were adopted in this study. The following findings were highlighted: 1) The inter-annual and inter-decadal variations in precipitation during a whole year, the pre-flood period or the post-flood period were obvious during 1880-2015, and the primary periods for the annual precipitation sequence were 6, 8, 13, and 26 years during 1880-1938 and were 7, 8, 11 and 17 years during 1951-2015. There was no significant long-term increasing or decreasing tendency basing on this long precipitation sequence. For example, the precipitation during a whole year, the pre-flood period or the post-flood period fluctuated after treatment in filtering analysis. 2) The relationship between precipitation during a whole year, the pre-flood period or the post-flood period and global warming was complicated. There was a significant positive correlation between precipitation and global surface temperature during cold periods(1880-1939), especially in the pre-flood periods(Apr.-Jun.). There was no significant correlation between precipitation and global surface temperature during warm periods(1977-2015). But the variation magnitude of precipitation in the pre-flood period and the post-flood period increased with the increase of temperature, which suggested that the risk of drought or flood would increase accordingly. 3) According to the long-term changes in precipitation during a whole year, the pre-flood period or the post-flood period and the current precipitation evaluation standard adopted by the Guangdong Meteorology Administration, the frequency of normal precipitation in the pre-flood period would increase under the background of global warming, and the probability of less precipitation in the post-flood period would increase at the same time. These results were important for exploring the variation characters of precipitation for the eastern region of Guangdong over a long term period and useful for evaluating the possible effect of global warming on precipitation at Shantou in the near future.
In recent years, some investigations have been carried out to study the inter-decadal variability of precipitation in China. The earliest record of rainfall was from 1880 and a total of 127 years of complete records were taken for Shantou. This long precipitation sequence was very important for exploring the rainfall regime for the whole eastern region of Guangdong Province. The long-term changes in precipitation during a whole year, the pre-flood period(Apr.-Jun.), or the post-flood period(Jul.-Sep.), and their relationships with global surface temperature during 1880-2015 were analyzed using precipitation data from the Central Weather Bureau(for years of 1881-1943) and Shantou Meteorology Station(for years of 1951-2015) and global surface temperature data from Had CRUT 4 dataset. The methods of filtering analysis, linear regression analysis, spectral analysis and correlation analysis were adopted in this study. The following findings were highlighted: 1) The inter-annual and inter-decadal variations in precipitation during a whole year, the pre-flood period or the post-flood period were obvious during 1880-2015, and the primary periods for the annual precipitation sequence were 6, 8, 13, and 26 years during 1880-1938 and were 7, 8, 11 and 17 years during 1951-2015. There was no significant long-term increasing or decreasing tendency basing on this long precipitation sequence. For example, the precipitation during a whole year, the pre-flood period or the post-flood period fluctuated after treatment in filtering analysis. 2) The relationship between precipitation during a whole year, the pre-flood period or the post-flood period and global warming was complicated. There was a significant positive correlation between precipitation and global surface temperature during cold periods(1880-1939), especially in the pre-flood periods(Apr.-Jun.). There was no significant correlation between precipitation and global surface temperature during warm periods(1977-2015). But the variation magnitude of precipitation in the pre-flood period and the post-flood period increased with the increase of temperature, which suggested that the risk of drought or flood would increase accordingly. 3) According to the long-term changes in precipitation during a whole year, the pre-flood period or the post-flood period and the current precipitation evaluation standard adopted by the Guangdong Meteorology Administration, the frequency of normal precipitation in the pre-flood period would increase under the background of global warming, and the probability of less precipitation in the post-flood period would increase at the same time. These results were important for exploring the variation characters of precipitation for the eastern region of Guangdong over a long term period and useful for evaluating the possible effect of global warming on precipitation at Shantou in the near future.
引文
[1]广东省气象局资料室.广东气候[M].广州:广东科技出版社,1987.
[2]鹿世瑾.华南气候[M].北京:气象出版社,1990.
[3]广东省地方志编纂委员会.广东省志·气象志[M].广州:广东人民出版社,1996.
[4]钱光明.广东省气候应用技术手册[M].北京:气象出版社,2008.
[5]陈特固,曾侠,张江勇,刘爱君,钱光明,余克服.全球变暖背景下的广东省降水量及旱涝变化趋势[J].广东气象,2007,29(1):5-10.
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[7]Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology.Southern Oscillation index(SOI)since 1876[EB/OL].[2016-08-10].http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/currents/soi2.shtml.
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[9]广东省气象局气候中心.广东省月气候影响评价[R].广州:广东省气象局气候中心,2015.
[10]房一采,赵春雨,王颖,顾正强,陈海山,吴捷.新、旧气候态的差异及对东北地区气候业务的影响[J].气候变化研究进展,2016,12(3):193-201.
[11]温珍治.厦门近113a来降水量变化特征分析[J].台湾海峡,2007,26(1):17-25.
[12]丁一汇,王会军.近百年中国气候变化科学问题的新认识[J].科学通报,2016,61(10):1029-1041.
[13]中国气象局气候中心.中国气候变化监测公报(2015年)[M].北京:科学出版社,2016:1-97.
[14]世界气象组织.WMO2015年全球气候状况声明[R].日内瓦:世界气象组织,2016:WMO-NO.1167.
[15]黄先香,炎利军,施能.华南前汛期旱涝影响因子和预报方法[J].热带气象学报,2006,22(5):431-438.
[16]马慧,陈桢华,毛文书,王谦谦.华南前汛期降水异常及其环流特征分析[J].热带气象学报,2009,25(1):89-96.
[17]唐晓春,袁中友.近60年来厄尔尼诺事件对广东省旱灾的影响[J].地理研究,2010,29(11):1932-1939.
[18]郭雪,王志伟,俞胜彬,郭玉喜.20世纪我国东部地区的降水及极端旱涝事件变化规律[J].干旱气象,2013,31(3):474-481.
[19]王米雪,延军平,李双双.1960―2013年中国东南沿海地区旱涝时空变化特征及其趋势分析[J].资源科学,2014,36(11):2307-2315.
[20]钟权加,张立凤,丁瑞强,秦箭煌.华南夏季降水的变化特征及其热带太平洋海温异常的关系[J].气候变化研究进展,2016,12(1):28-36.
[21]杨绮薇,黄增明,林爱兰.华南登陆台风频数的变化及其与ENSO事件的关系[J].气象,2001,27(3):12-15.
[22]DING Y H,WANG Z Y,SUN Y.Inter-decadal variation of the summer precipitation in East China and its association with decreasing Asian summer monsoon.Part I:Observed evidences[J].International Journal of Climatology,2008,28:1139-1161.
[23]慕巧珍,王绍武,朱锦红,龚道溢.近百年夏季西太平洋副热带高压的变化[J].大气科学,2001,25(6):787-797.
[24]黄建斌,王绍武,龚道溢,周天军,闻新宇,张自银,朱锦红.近千年的大气涛动[J].科学通报,2010,55(19):1932-1936.
[25]石伟,王绍武.1857―1987年南方涛动指数[J].气象,1989,15(5):29-33.
(1)https://crudata.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature;
(2)http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis-monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears-ERSSTv3b.shtml;
(3)http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest.txt。
[2]鹿世瑾.华南气候[M].北京:气象出版社,1990.
[3]广东省地方志编纂委员会.广东省志·气象志[M].广州:广东人民出版社,1996.
[4]钱光明.广东省气候应用技术手册[M].北京:气象出版社,2008.
[5]陈特固,曾侠,张江勇,刘爱君,钱光明,余克服.全球变暖背景下的广东省降水量及旱涝变化趋势[J].广东气象,2007,29(1):5-10.
[6]BUTLER J H,MONTZKA S A.The NOAA annual greenhouse gas index(AGGI).NOAA/ESRL Global Monitoring Division[EB/OL].[2016-10-05].http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/aggi/aggi.html.
[7]Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology.Southern Oscillation index(SOI)since 1876[EB/OL].[2016-08-10].http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/currents/soi2.shtml.
[8]CHIN P C.Tropical cyclone climatology for the China Seas and Western Pacific(from 1884-1970)[R].Hong Kong:Royal Observatory,1972,1:base data.
[9]广东省气象局气候中心.广东省月气候影响评价[R].广州:广东省气象局气候中心,2015.
[10]房一采,赵春雨,王颖,顾正强,陈海山,吴捷.新、旧气候态的差异及对东北地区气候业务的影响[J].气候变化研究进展,2016,12(3):193-201.
[11]温珍治.厦门近113a来降水量变化特征分析[J].台湾海峡,2007,26(1):17-25.
[12]丁一汇,王会军.近百年中国气候变化科学问题的新认识[J].科学通报,2016,61(10):1029-1041.
[13]中国气象局气候中心.中国气候变化监测公报(2015年)[M].北京:科学出版社,2016:1-97.
[14]世界气象组织.WMO2015年全球气候状况声明[R].日内瓦:世界气象组织,2016:WMO-NO.1167.
[15]黄先香,炎利军,施能.华南前汛期旱涝影响因子和预报方法[J].热带气象学报,2006,22(5):431-438.
[16]马慧,陈桢华,毛文书,王谦谦.华南前汛期降水异常及其环流特征分析[J].热带气象学报,2009,25(1):89-96.
[17]唐晓春,袁中友.近60年来厄尔尼诺事件对广东省旱灾的影响[J].地理研究,2010,29(11):1932-1939.
[18]郭雪,王志伟,俞胜彬,郭玉喜.20世纪我国东部地区的降水及极端旱涝事件变化规律[J].干旱气象,2013,31(3):474-481.
[19]王米雪,延军平,李双双.1960―2013年中国东南沿海地区旱涝时空变化特征及其趋势分析[J].资源科学,2014,36(11):2307-2315.
[20]钟权加,张立凤,丁瑞强,秦箭煌.华南夏季降水的变化特征及其热带太平洋海温异常的关系[J].气候变化研究进展,2016,12(1):28-36.
[21]杨绮薇,黄增明,林爱兰.华南登陆台风频数的变化及其与ENSO事件的关系[J].气象,2001,27(3):12-15.
[22]DING Y H,WANG Z Y,SUN Y.Inter-decadal variation of the summer precipitation in East China and its association with decreasing Asian summer monsoon.Part I:Observed evidences[J].International Journal of Climatology,2008,28:1139-1161.
[23]慕巧珍,王绍武,朱锦红,龚道溢.近百年夏季西太平洋副热带高压的变化[J].大气科学,2001,25(6):787-797.
[24]黄建斌,王绍武,龚道溢,周天军,闻新宇,张自银,朱锦红.近千年的大气涛动[J].科学通报,2010,55(19):1932-1936.
[25]石伟,王绍武.1857―1987年南方涛动指数[J].气象,1989,15(5):29-33.
(1)https://crudata.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature;
(2)http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis-monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears-ERSSTv3b.shtml;
(3)http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest.txt。