基于逻辑斯蒂模型的主题词被引频次和发文量增长的实证研究
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摘要
【目的/意义】本文将逻辑斯蒂模型引入到主题词被引频次以及相对应的发文量增长规律的研究中,探索主题词被引频次以及相对应的发文量对时间的响应关系。【方法/过程】用Web of Science中所有数据库检索了主题词"chlorophyll fluorescence"以及相对应的发文量,获得了1950—2016年该主题词的被引频次和发文量的数据。然后用逻辑斯蒂模型拟合了该主题词的文献被引频次和发文量。【结果/结论】拟合结果显示,逻辑斯蒂模型可以很好地拟合该主题词文献的被引频次和发文量的增长趋势,且从理论上得出了该主题词的最大年被引频次和最大年发文量将分别达到131 179次和2 385篇。研究结果还表明:该主题词的被引频次和发文量在1982—1983年和1991—1992年拟合值与观测值出现较大的偏差,其原因与这两个时间节点上叶绿素荧光观测技术的重大改进有关。
【Purpose/significance】In this paper, in order to investigate on the increment rule of the subject citation frequency and corresponding quantity of articles, the logistic model was introduced. And the time-response of the subject citation frequency and quantity of articles was studied.【Method/process】The citation data and quantity of articles on the subject of "chlorophyll fluorescence" were obtained from Web of Science database platform from 1950 to 2016 in plant physiology,then these data were fitted by the logistic model.【Result/conclusion】Fitted results showed that the logistic model was able to simulate and predict the increment tendency of the subject citation frequencies and quantity of articles, respectively. It was predicted that the theoretical maximum citations of the subject and total amount of papers issued would be 131 179 per year and 2 385 per year respectively. Additionally, the presented results revealed that the significant differences between the fitted values and the observed data in 1982-1983 and 1991-1992 respectively. The main reasons were that the measured technologies of chlorophyll fluorescence had greatly improved in these two points of time.
【Purpose/significance】In this paper, in order to investigate on the increment rule of the subject citation frequency and corresponding quantity of articles, the logistic model was introduced. And the time-response of the subject citation frequency and quantity of articles was studied.【Method/process】The citation data and quantity of articles on the subject of "chlorophyll fluorescence" were obtained from Web of Science database platform from 1950 to 2016 in plant physiology,then these data were fitted by the logistic model.【Result/conclusion】Fitted results showed that the logistic model was able to simulate and predict the increment tendency of the subject citation frequencies and quantity of articles, respectively. It was predicted that the theoretical maximum citations of the subject and total amount of papers issued would be 131 179 per year and 2 385 per year respectively. Additionally, the presented results revealed that the significant differences between the fitted values and the observed data in 1982-1983 and 1991-1992 respectively. The main reasons were that the measured technologies of chlorophyll fluorescence had greatly improved in these two points of time.
引文
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26 Yin X, van Oijen M, Schapendonk AHCM. Extension of a biochemical model for the generalized stoichiometry of electron transport limited C3 photosynthesis[J]. Plant, Cell&Environment, 2004,(27):1211–1222.
27 Sharkey TD. What gas exchange data can tell us about photosynthesis[J]. Plant, Cell&Environment, 2016,(39):1161–1163.
2 陶慧卿,庄琦,潘卫.关于Google Scholar与Web of Science引文分析的实证研究[J].中国索引, 2008,6(4):57–62.
3 陈仕吉,史丽文,李冬梅,等.论文被引频次标准化方法述评[J].现代图书情报技术,2012, 218(4):54-60.
4 鲍玉芳,马建霞.科学论文被引频次预测的现状分析与研究[J].情报杂志,2015, 34(5):66-71.
5 中国科学技术信息研究所.2011年版中国期刊引证报告(核心版)[M].北京:科学技术文献出版社,2011.
6 叶鹰.高品质论文被引数据及其对学术评价的启示[J].中国图书馆学报,2010,36(1):100-103.
7 赵蓉英,魏绪秋.中美图书情报学领域国际学术论文影响力比较—基于被引频次和使用次数[J].情报理论与实践,2018,41(1):139-145.
8 王妍,郭舒,张建勇.学者影响力评价指标的相关研究[J].图书情报工作,2015, 59(5):106-112.
9 王正兴.引文作用评价分析系统构建及指标设计思路[J].图书情报研究, 2009, 2(1):42–44.
10 苏芳荔.科研合作对期刊论文被引频次的影响[J].图书情报工作, 2011, 55(10):144–148.
11 邱均平,宋艳辉.引文分析领域研究热点前沿与高频作者的二维时空分析[J].图书情报知识, 2011,(6):18–24.
12 刘晓光,高克祥.生长模型预测法在杨树细菌溃疡病流行预测中的应用[J].林业科学, 1998, 34(4):123–128.
13 王力勤,彭白桦.逻辑斯蒂模型及应用[J].成都气象学院学报, 1997, 12(4):337–342.
14 吉蕴,李祖平.逻辑斯蒂模型及应用[J].廊坊学院学报, 2009, 9(5):78–80.
15 张世强,蒋峥.基于灰色系统的逻辑斯蒂模型的建模方法[J].数学的实践与认识, 2010, 40(9):144–148.
16 靖培栋,康仲瑗.关于科技文献增长的数学模型[J].情报学报, 2000, 19(2):90–96.
17 何荣利.关于科学文献增长模型的思考[J].情报杂志,1994, 13(6):40–41, 64.
18 林辉,林伟.科学文献的增长规律和老化规律及其新的一般模型[J].情报杂志, 2010, 29(4):22–25.
19 兰月新.基于动态logistic模型的文献增长规律研究[J].情报科学, 2014, 32(3):86–89, 97.
20 李久平,姚乐野.知识管理文献增长模型研究[J].图书馆理论与实践, 2012, 34(5):36–39.
21 任海英,王德营,王菲菲.主题词组合新颖性与论文学术影响力的关系研究[J].图书情报工作, 2017, 61(9):87–93.
22 Baker NR. Chlorophyll fluorescence:a probe of photosynthesis in vivo[J]. Annual Review of Plant Biology, 2008,(59):89–113.
23 Gosnell CF. The rate of obsolescence in college library book collections by an analysis of three select lists of books for college libraries[D]. New York:New York University,1943.
24 王泽蘅,邱长波.基于logistic回归的影响国际合作论文主导地位的因素分析—以中日比较研究为视角[J].情报杂志, 2017, 36(4):177–182.
25[EB/OL].http://apps.webofknowledge.com/CitationRepor t.do?product=UA&search_mode=CitationReport&SID=7F byYwsrGd5rLOvQiSP&page=1&cr_pqid=6&viewType=su mmary,2018-02-01.
26 Yin X, van Oijen M, Schapendonk AHCM. Extension of a biochemical model for the generalized stoichiometry of electron transport limited C3 photosynthesis[J]. Plant, Cell&Environment, 2004,(27):1211–1222.
27 Sharkey TD. What gas exchange data can tell us about photosynthesis[J]. Plant, Cell&Environment, 2016,(39):1161–1163.