PCRA法在瓦斯爆燃最高温度预测中的应用
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摘要
采用主成分回归分析(PCRA)法实现瓦斯爆燃最高温度预测.选取爆燃最高温度影响因素分别为点火能量、环境温度、环境湿度、瓦斯浓度、氧气浓度、惰性气体浓度、管道长度、点火头与管道开口端的距离,共8个.通过影响因素主成分分析,得出瓦斯浓度与氧气浓度对瓦斯爆燃最高温度影响作用最大.通过计算瓦斯爆燃最高温度影响因素主成分得分,构建瓦斯爆燃最高温度预测模型.结果表明:PCRA法预测瓦斯爆燃最高温度最大误差为4.17%,最小仅为0.13%,证明了PCRA法在瓦斯爆燃最高温度预测中的科学性.
PCRA method is used to predict gas explosion maximum temperature. Eight maximum temperature influencing factors of gas explosion are selected, namely ignition energy, ambient temperature, humidity, gas concentration, oxygen concentration, concentration of the inert gas, pipeline length, distance between ignition head and pipeline export.After principal component analysis on gas explosion influcing factors, it is found that the gas concentration and the oxygen concentration have the greatest influence on maximum temperature of gas explosion. The principal component scores of maximum temperature influencing factors are calculated and the maximum temperature regression prediction model is built. Results of example analysis show that: the maximum and minimum error of principal component regression is 4.17% and 0.13%, which proves the scientificalness of predicting maximum temperature.
PCRA method is used to predict gas explosion maximum temperature. Eight maximum temperature influencing factors of gas explosion are selected, namely ignition energy, ambient temperature, humidity, gas concentration, oxygen concentration, concentration of the inert gas, pipeline length, distance between ignition head and pipeline export.After principal component analysis on gas explosion influcing factors, it is found that the gas concentration and the oxygen concentration have the greatest influence on maximum temperature of gas explosion. The principal component scores of maximum temperature influencing factors are calculated and the maximum temperature regression prediction model is built. Results of example analysis show that: the maximum and minimum error of principal component regression is 4.17% and 0.13%, which proves the scientificalness of predicting maximum temperature.
引文
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[2]张延松.瓦斯爆燃诱导沉积煤尘爆燃研究[M].中国矿业大学出版社,2011.
[3]聂百胜.煤体瓦斯运移理论及应用[M].科学出版社,2014.
[4]景国勋,段振伟,程磊.瓦斯煤尘爆燃特性及传播规律研究进展[J].中国安全科学学报,2009, 04:67-72.
[5]司荣军.矿井瓦斯煤尘爆燃传播规律研究[D].山东科技大学,2007.
[6]司荣军.矿井瓦斯煤尘爆燃传播实验研究[J].中国矿业,2008, 12:81-84.
[7]张如明,何学秋,聂百胜.煤矿瓦斯爆燃阻隔爆技术现状及展望[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2011, 07:15-19.
[8]王新,李润之,张延松.瓦斯爆燃引起沉积煤尘爆燃传播实验研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2009, 04:73-77.
[9]约翰逊.实用多元统计分析[M].清华大学出版社,2008.
[10]胡波.实用统计分析方法与技术[M].化学工业出版社,2013.
[11]何晓群.多元统计分析[M].中国人民大学出版社,2015.s