基于SWAN雷达拼图产品在暴雨过程中的对流云降水识别及效果检验
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摘要
本文基于SWAN雷达拼图产品,选取了组合反射率因子、组合反射率因子水平梯度、回波顶高及垂直累积液态水含量作为识别参数,采用模糊逻辑法对暴雨过程中的对流云与层状云降水进行了分类试验,对发生在重庆的12次区域性暴雨天气过程分类结果进行了验证。并以ADTD地闪资料作为对流云降水的实况观测数据,分别采用了四种不同半径的空间匹配与四种不同时间匹配方式对识别出的对流云降水产品进行了定量检验。检验结果显示:随着空间匹配半径的增大,正确率明显提高,而6 min地闪相对于6 min拼图产品提前6、3、0 min及滞后3 min四种时间匹配方式,其正确率变化很小。对于12次暴雨过程的总体评分较高,检验方法具有清楚的物理意义,在不同的时空匹配方式下的评分结果符合实际情况,同时说明对流云与层状云降水分类效果较好,也是对对流云降水识别定量检验的一次探索。
Based on SWAN(Severe Weather Automatic Nowcast System) radar mosaic products,we selected the composite reflectivity factor and its horizontal gradient,echo top height and vertically integrated liquid water content as identification parameters, and conducted a classification test for convective cloud and stratiform cloud precipitation in rainstorm processes using the fuzzy logic method. The results were verified by 12 regional rainstorm processes that occurred in Chongqing. Taking the Advanced TOA and Direction System lightning data as objective observation data of convective cloud precipitation, we tested the related products quantitatively by four different radiuses of spatial matching and four different time matching methods, respectively. The verification results showed that with the increase of space matching radius, the correct rate improves significantly. However, the correct rate of 6 min cloud-to-ground lightning flashes relative to 6 min mosaic products ahead of 6 min, 3 min, 0 min and lagging 3 min four time matching methods, changes slightly. The overall score of the rainstorm is high and the test method has clear physical meaning. The score results under different temporal and spatial matching patterns are consistent with the actual situation, which means the classification outcome of the convective and stratiform rainfall is good. This is an exploration of convective cloud precipitation quantitative test as well.
Based on SWAN(Severe Weather Automatic Nowcast System) radar mosaic products,we selected the composite reflectivity factor and its horizontal gradient,echo top height and vertically integrated liquid water content as identification parameters, and conducted a classification test for convective cloud and stratiform cloud precipitation in rainstorm processes using the fuzzy logic method. The results were verified by 12 regional rainstorm processes that occurred in Chongqing. Taking the Advanced TOA and Direction System lightning data as objective observation data of convective cloud precipitation, we tested the related products quantitatively by four different radiuses of spatial matching and four different time matching methods, respectively. The verification results showed that with the increase of space matching radius, the correct rate improves significantly. However, the correct rate of 6 min cloud-to-ground lightning flashes relative to 6 min mosaic products ahead of 6 min, 3 min, 0 min and lagging 3 min four time matching methods, changes slightly. The overall score of the rainstorm is high and the test method has clear physical meaning. The score results under different temporal and spatial matching patterns are consistent with the actual situation, which means the classification outcome of the convective and stratiform rainfall is good. This is an exploration of convective cloud precipitation quantitative test as well.
引文
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黄钰,阮征,罗秀明,等,2015.垂直探测雷达的降水云分类方法在北京地区的应用[J].高原气象,34(3):815-824. Huang Y,Ruan Z,Luo X M,et al,2015. Application in classification of precipitation clouds using vertical sounding radar in Beijing[J]. Plateau Meteor,34(3):815-824(in Chinese).
李佰平,戴建华,张欣,等,2016.三类强对流天气临近预报的模糊检验试验与对比[J].气象,42(2):129-143. Li B P,Dai J H,Zhang X,et al,2016. Fuzzy verification test and comparison of three types of severe convective weather nowcasting[J]. Meteor Mon,42(2):129-143(in Chinese).
李国翠,刘黎平,连志鸾,等,2014.利用雷达回波三维拼图资料识别雷暴大风统计研究[J].气象学报,72(1):168-181. Li G C,Liu L P,Lian Z L,et al,2014. Statistical study of the identification of thunderstorm gale based on the radar 3D mosaic data[J]. Acta Meteor Sinica,72(1):168-181(in Chinese).
刘黎平,吴林林,杨引明,2007.基于模糊逻辑的分步式超折射地物回波识别方法的建立和效果分析[J].气象学报,65(2):252-260.Liu L P,Wu L L,Yang Y M,2007. Development of fuzzy-logicaltwo-step ground clutter detection algorithm[J]. Acta Meteor Sinica,65(2):252-260(in Chinese).
马申佳,陈超辉,智协飞,等,2018.基于时空不确定性的对流尺度集合预报效果评估检验[J].气象学报,76(4):578-589. Ma S J,Chen C H,Zhi X F,et al,2018. The assessment and verification of convection-allowing ensemble forecast based on spatial-temporal uncertainties[J]. Acta Meteor Sinica, 76(4):578-589(in Chinese).
郄秀书,刘冬霞,孙竹玲,2014.闪电气象学研究进展[J].气象学报,72(5):1054-1068. Qie X S,Liu D X,Sun Z L,2014. Recent advances in research of lightning meteorology[J]. Acta Meteor Sinica,72(5):1054-1068(in Chinese).
师春香,瞿建华,2002.用神经网络方法对NOAA-AVHRR资料进行云客观分类[J].气象学报,60(2):250-255.Shi C X,Qu J H,2002. Cloud classification for NOAA-AVHRR data by using a neural network[J]. Acta Meteor Sinica,60(2):250-255(in Chinese).
王静,程明虎,2007.用神经网络方法对雷达资料进行降水类型的分类[J].气象,33(7):55-59. Wang J,Cheng M H,2007. Precipitation echo classification of radar reflectivity with artificial neural network[J]. Meteor Mon,33(7):55-59(in Chinese).
肖艳姣,刘黎平,2006.新一代天气雷达网资料的三维格点化及拼图方法研究[J].气象学报,64(5):647-657. Xiao Y J, Liu L P,2006. Study of methods for interpolating data from weather radar network to 3D grid and mosaics[J]. Acta Meteor Sinica,64(5):647-657(in Chinese).
肖艳姣,刘黎平.2007.三维雷达反射率资料用于层状云和对流云的识别研究[J].大气科学,31(4):645-654. Xiao Y J,Liu L P,2007. Identification of stratiform and convective cloud using 3D radar reflectivity data[J]. Chinese J Atmos Sci,31(4):645-654(in Chinese).
杨吉,郑媛媛,夏文梅,等,2015.雷达拼图资料上中尺度对流系统的跟踪与预报[J].气象,41(6):738-744. Yang J,Zheng Y Y,Xia W M,et al,2015. Mesoscale convective systems(MCSs)tracking and nowcasting based on radar mosaic data[J]. Meteor Mon,41(6):738-744(in Chinese).
曾金全,杨超,王颖波,等,2016.基于统计分布特征的闪电强度等级划分[J].暴雨灾害,35(6):585-589. Zeng J Q, Yang C, Wang Y B,et al, 2016. The classification of lightning current intensity based on statistical distribution characteristics[J]. Torrential Rain Disasters,35(6):585-589(in Chinese).
支树林,李婕,陈娟,2018.江西不同类型强对流天气的地闪统计特征及与雷达回波特征对比分析[J].气象,44(2):222-232. Zhi S L,Li J,Chen J,2018. Statistical characteristics of CG flashes and comparison to radar echoes in different types of severe convections in Jiangxi Province[J]. Meteor Mon, 44(2):222-232(in Chinese).
仲凌志,刘黎平,顾松山,2007.层状云和对流云的雷达识别及在估测雨量中的应用[J].高原气象,26(3):593-602.Zhong L Z,Liu L P,Gu S S,2007. A algorithm identifying convective and stratiform in mixed precipitation and its application to estimating precipitation[J]. Plateau Meteor,26(3):593-602(in Chinese).
Adler R F,Negri A J,1988. A satellite infrared technique to estimate tropical convective and stratiform rainfall[J]. J Appl Meteor,27(1):30-51.
Baldwin M E,Kain J S, Lakshmivarahan S,2005. Development of an automated classification procedure for rainfall systems[J]. Mon Wea Rev,133(4):844-862.
Baum B A,Tovinkere V,Titlow J,et al,1997. Automated cloud classification of global AVHRR data using a fuzzy logic approach[J].J Appl Meteor,36(11):1519-1540.
Biggerstaff M I,Listemaa S A,2000. An improved scheme for convective/stratiform echo classification using radar reflectivity[J].J Appl Meteor,39(12):2129-2150.
Chen M X,Wang Y C,Gao F,et al,2012. Diurnal variations in convective storm activity over contiguous North China during the warm season based on radar mosaic climatology[J]. J Geophys Res,117(D20):D20115. DOI:10. 1029/2012JD018158.
Chen X C,Zhao K,Xue M,2014. Spatial and temporal characteristics of warm season convection over Pearl River Delta Region,China,based on 3 years of operational radar data[J]. J Geophys Res. 119(22):12447-12465. DOI:10. 1002/2014JD021965.
Churchill D D, Houze R A Jr, 1984. Development and structure of winter monsoon cloud clusters on 10 December 1978[J]. J Atmos Sci,41(6):933-960.
Houze R A Jr,1973. A climatological study of vertical transports by cumulus-scale convection[J]. J Atmos Sci,30(6):1112-1123.
Rao T N,Kirankumar N V P,Radhakrishna B,et al,2008a. Classification of tropical precipitating systems using wind profiler spectral moments. PartⅠ:algorithm description and validation[J]. J Atmos Oceanic Technol,25(6):884-897.
Rao T N,Kirankumar N V P,Radhakrishna B,et al,2008b. Classification of tropical precipitating systems using wind profiler spectral moments. PartⅡ:statistical characteristics of rainfall systems and sensitivity analysis[J]. J Atmos Oceanic Technol,25(6):898-908.
Rao T N,Rao D N,Mohan K,et al,2011. Classification of tropical precipitating systems and associated Z-R relationships[J]. J Geophys Res,106(D16):17699-17711.
Steiner M,Houze R A Jr, Yuter S E, 1995. Climatological characterization of three-dimensional storm structure from operational radar and rain gauge data[J]. J Appl Meteor,34(9):1978-2007.
Williams C R,Ecklund W L,Gage K S, 1995. Classification of precipitating clouds in the tropics using 915-MHz wind profilers[J].J Atmos Oceanic Technol,12(5):996-1012.
Zadeh L A,1968. Fuzzy algorithms[J]. Inf Control, 12(2):94-102.
曹俊武,刘黎平,葛润生,2005.棋糊逻辑法在双线偏振雷达识别降水粒子相态中的研究[J].大气科学,29(5):827-836. CaoJ W,Liu L P,Ge R S,2005. A study of fuzzy logic method in classification of hydrometeors based on polarimetric radar measurement[J].Chinese J Atmos Sci,29(5):827-836(in Chinese).
方德贤,李红斌,董新宁,等,2016.风暴分类识别技术在人工防雹中的应用[J].气象,42(9):1124-1134. Fang D X,Li H B,Dong X N,et al,2016. Application of storm auto classification technology in artificial hail prevention[J], Meteor Mon,42(9):1124-1134(in Chinese).
勾亚彬,刘黎平,杨杰,等,2014.基于雷达组网拼图的定量降水估测算法业务应用及效果评估[J].气象学报,72(4):731-748. Gou Y B,Liu L P,Yang J,et al,2014. Operational application and evaluation of the quantitative precipitation estimates algorithm based on the multi-radar mosaic[J]. Acta Meteor Sinica,72(4):731-748(in Chinese).
黄钰,阮征,罗秀明,等,2015.垂直探测雷达的降水云分类方法在北京地区的应用[J].高原气象,34(3):815-824. Huang Y,Ruan Z,Luo X M,et al,2015. Application in classification of precipitation clouds using vertical sounding radar in Beijing[J]. Plateau Meteor,34(3):815-824(in Chinese).
李佰平,戴建华,张欣,等,2016.三类强对流天气临近预报的模糊检验试验与对比[J].气象,42(2):129-143. Li B P,Dai J H,Zhang X,et al,2016. Fuzzy verification test and comparison of three types of severe convective weather nowcasting[J]. Meteor Mon,42(2):129-143(in Chinese).
李国翠,刘黎平,连志鸾,等,2014.利用雷达回波三维拼图资料识别雷暴大风统计研究[J].气象学报,72(1):168-181. Li G C,Liu L P,Lian Z L,et al,2014. Statistical study of the identification of thunderstorm gale based on the radar 3D mosaic data[J]. Acta Meteor Sinica,72(1):168-181(in Chinese).
刘黎平,吴林林,杨引明,2007.基于模糊逻辑的分步式超折射地物回波识别方法的建立和效果分析[J].气象学报,65(2):252-260.Liu L P,Wu L L,Yang Y M,2007. Development of fuzzy-logicaltwo-step ground clutter detection algorithm[J]. Acta Meteor Sinica,65(2):252-260(in Chinese).
马申佳,陈超辉,智协飞,等,2018.基于时空不确定性的对流尺度集合预报效果评估检验[J].气象学报,76(4):578-589. Ma S J,Chen C H,Zhi X F,et al,2018. The assessment and verification of convection-allowing ensemble forecast based on spatial-temporal uncertainties[J]. Acta Meteor Sinica, 76(4):578-589(in Chinese).
郄秀书,刘冬霞,孙竹玲,2014.闪电气象学研究进展[J].气象学报,72(5):1054-1068. Qie X S,Liu D X,Sun Z L,2014. Recent advances in research of lightning meteorology[J]. Acta Meteor Sinica,72(5):1054-1068(in Chinese).
师春香,瞿建华,2002.用神经网络方法对NOAA-AVHRR资料进行云客观分类[J].气象学报,60(2):250-255.Shi C X,Qu J H,2002. Cloud classification for NOAA-AVHRR data by using a neural network[J]. Acta Meteor Sinica,60(2):250-255(in Chinese).
王静,程明虎,2007.用神经网络方法对雷达资料进行降水类型的分类[J].气象,33(7):55-59. Wang J,Cheng M H,2007. Precipitation echo classification of radar reflectivity with artificial neural network[J]. Meteor Mon,33(7):55-59(in Chinese).
肖艳姣,刘黎平,2006.新一代天气雷达网资料的三维格点化及拼图方法研究[J].气象学报,64(5):647-657. Xiao Y J, Liu L P,2006. Study of methods for interpolating data from weather radar network to 3D grid and mosaics[J]. Acta Meteor Sinica,64(5):647-657(in Chinese).
肖艳姣,刘黎平.2007.三维雷达反射率资料用于层状云和对流云的识别研究[J].大气科学,31(4):645-654. Xiao Y J,Liu L P,2007. Identification of stratiform and convective cloud using 3D radar reflectivity data[J]. Chinese J Atmos Sci,31(4):645-654(in Chinese).
杨吉,郑媛媛,夏文梅,等,2015.雷达拼图资料上中尺度对流系统的跟踪与预报[J].气象,41(6):738-744. Yang J,Zheng Y Y,Xia W M,et al,2015. Mesoscale convective systems(MCSs)tracking and nowcasting based on radar mosaic data[J]. Meteor Mon,41(6):738-744(in Chinese).
曾金全,杨超,王颖波,等,2016.基于统计分布特征的闪电强度等级划分[J].暴雨灾害,35(6):585-589. Zeng J Q, Yang C, Wang Y B,et al, 2016. The classification of lightning current intensity based on statistical distribution characteristics[J]. Torrential Rain Disasters,35(6):585-589(in Chinese).
支树林,李婕,陈娟,2018.江西不同类型强对流天气的地闪统计特征及与雷达回波特征对比分析[J].气象,44(2):222-232. Zhi S L,Li J,Chen J,2018. Statistical characteristics of CG flashes and comparison to radar echoes in different types of severe convections in Jiangxi Province[J]. Meteor Mon, 44(2):222-232(in Chinese).
仲凌志,刘黎平,顾松山,2007.层状云和对流云的雷达识别及在估测雨量中的应用[J].高原气象,26(3):593-602.Zhong L Z,Liu L P,Gu S S,2007. A algorithm identifying convective and stratiform in mixed precipitation and its application to estimating precipitation[J]. Plateau Meteor,26(3):593-602(in Chinese).
Adler R F,Negri A J,1988. A satellite infrared technique to estimate tropical convective and stratiform rainfall[J]. J Appl Meteor,27(1):30-51.
Baldwin M E,Kain J S, Lakshmivarahan S,2005. Development of an automated classification procedure for rainfall systems[J]. Mon Wea Rev,133(4):844-862.
Baum B A,Tovinkere V,Titlow J,et al,1997. Automated cloud classification of global AVHRR data using a fuzzy logic approach[J].J Appl Meteor,36(11):1519-1540.
Biggerstaff M I,Listemaa S A,2000. An improved scheme for convective/stratiform echo classification using radar reflectivity[J].J Appl Meteor,39(12):2129-2150.
Chen M X,Wang Y C,Gao F,et al,2012. Diurnal variations in convective storm activity over contiguous North China during the warm season based on radar mosaic climatology[J]. J Geophys Res,117(D20):D20115. DOI:10. 1029/2012JD018158.
Chen X C,Zhao K,Xue M,2014. Spatial and temporal characteristics of warm season convection over Pearl River Delta Region,China,based on 3 years of operational radar data[J]. J Geophys Res. 119(22):12447-12465. DOI:10. 1002/2014JD021965.
Churchill D D, Houze R A Jr, 1984. Development and structure of winter monsoon cloud clusters on 10 December 1978[J]. J Atmos Sci,41(6):933-960.
Houze R A Jr,1973. A climatological study of vertical transports by cumulus-scale convection[J]. J Atmos Sci,30(6):1112-1123.
Rao T N,Kirankumar N V P,Radhakrishna B,et al,2008a. Classification of tropical precipitating systems using wind profiler spectral moments. PartⅠ:algorithm description and validation[J]. J Atmos Oceanic Technol,25(6):884-897.
Rao T N,Kirankumar N V P,Radhakrishna B,et al,2008b. Classification of tropical precipitating systems using wind profiler spectral moments. PartⅡ:statistical characteristics of rainfall systems and sensitivity analysis[J]. J Atmos Oceanic Technol,25(6):898-908.
Rao T N,Rao D N,Mohan K,et al,2011. Classification of tropical precipitating systems and associated Z-R relationships[J]. J Geophys Res,106(D16):17699-17711.
Steiner M,Houze R A Jr, Yuter S E, 1995. Climatological characterization of three-dimensional storm structure from operational radar and rain gauge data[J]. J Appl Meteor,34(9):1978-2007.
Williams C R,Ecklund W L,Gage K S, 1995. Classification of precipitating clouds in the tropics using 915-MHz wind profilers[J].J Atmos Oceanic Technol,12(5):996-1012.
Zadeh L A,1968. Fuzzy algorithms[J]. Inf Control, 12(2):94-102.