京津冀地区产业结构和用水结构变动关系
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摘要
水资源对社会经济发展至关重要。研究产业结构和用水结构变动关系,揭示经济发展与水资源利用的内在联系,对缺水地区水资源进行合理配置,特别是对处于特殊战略地位的京津冀地区具有重要意义。利用2002-2016年北京市、天津市、河北省产业结构及用水结构数据,采用产业结构与用水结构协调度等指标对京津冀地区产业结构与用水结构的演变趋势进行了评价,并基于成分数据的线性回归方法建立了京津冀地区产业结构与用水结构的线性回归模型,进一步研究产业结构与用水结构的相关关系,结果表明:北京市第三产业增加值比重与第三产业用水比重高度相关,河北省第二产业增加值比重与第二产业用水比重之间也表现出较强的相关性。
Water resources are of vital importance to social and economic development.The relationship between industrial structure and water consumed structure,revealing the link between economic development and water resources utilization and allocating water resources rationally,is of great significance to the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from strategic point of view.In this paper,we used the industrial structure and water consumed structure data from Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei Province during 2002 to 2016,and the indicators,such as,the coordination degree of industrial structure and water consumed structure,to investigate the evolution trends of industrial structure and water consumed structure in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.The linear regression method based on the component data was also used to establish a linear regression model between industrial structure and water consumption structure.The results showed that the proportion of the added value of the tertiary industry in Beijing was highly related to the proportion of water consumption of the tertiary industry.The proportion of the added value of the secondary industry in Hebei Province and the proportion of water consumed in the secondary industry also showed a strong correlation.
Water resources are of vital importance to social and economic development.The relationship between industrial structure and water consumed structure,revealing the link between economic development and water resources utilization and allocating water resources rationally,is of great significance to the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from strategic point of view.In this paper,we used the industrial structure and water consumed structure data from Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei Province during 2002 to 2016,and the indicators,such as,the coordination degree of industrial structure and water consumed structure,to investigate the evolution trends of industrial structure and water consumed structure in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.The linear regression method based on the component data was also used to establish a linear regression model between industrial structure and water consumption structure.The results showed that the proportion of the added value of the tertiary industry in Beijing was highly related to the proportion of water consumption of the tertiary industry.The proportion of the added value of the secondary industry in Hebei Province and the proportion of water consumed in the secondary industry also showed a strong correlation.
引文
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[14]章平.产业结构演进中的用水需求研究-以深圳为例[J].技术经济,2010,29(7):65-71.(ZHANG P.Empirical study on the water demand during the evolution of industrial structure:evidence from Shenzhen.[J].Technology Economics,2010,29(7):65-71.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1002-980X.2010.07.012.
[15]王惠文,黄薇.成分数据的线性回归模型[J].系统工程,2003(2):102-106.(WANG H W,HUANG W.ASimple linear regression model based on the compositional data[J].Systems Engineering,2003(2):102-106.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1001-4098.2003.02.022.
[16]原静.成分数据组合预测模型及其应用[D].太原:山西大学,2012.(YUAN J.Combination forecasting model of component data and its application[D].Taiyuan:Shanxi University,2012.(in Chinese))
[17]蒋蕾,陈远生,李璐.近20年北京市产业取水与节水变化分析[J].自然资源学报,2011,26(6):1040-1051.(JIANG L,CHEN Y S,LI L.Dynamic analysis on the industrial water withdrawal and water saving of Beijing in the past 20years[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2011,26(6):1040-1051.(in Chinese))DOI:10.11849/zrzyxb.2011.06.015.
[18]刘洋,李丽娟.京津冀地区产业结构演进特征分析[J].南水北调与水利科技,2018,16(4):7-16,25.(LIU Y,LI L J.Analysis on characteristics of industrial structure evolution in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region[J].South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science&Technology,2018,16(4):7-16,25.(in Chinese))DOI:10.13476/j.cnki.nsbdqk.2018.0091.
[19]钟科元,陈莹,陈兴伟,等.福建省用水结构与产业结构相关性的区域变化[J].南水北调与水利科技,2015,13(3):593-596,605.(ZHONG K Y,CHEN Y,CHEN X W,et al.Analysis of the correlation between water consumed structure and industrial structure in different regions of Fujian Province.[J].South-toNorth Water Transfers and Water Science&Technology,2015,13(3):593-596,605.(in Chinese))DOI:10.13476/j.cnki.nsbdq k.2015.03.043.
[2]雷社平,解建仓,阮本清.产业结构与水资源相关分析理论及其实证[J].运筹与管理,2004(1):100-105.(LEI S P,XIE J C,RUAN B Q.The correlation analysis and demonstration between industrial structure and water[J].Operations Research and Management Science,2004(1):100-105.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1007-3221.2004.01.020.
[3]云逸,邹志红,王惠文.北京市用水结构与产业结构的成分数据回归分析[J].系统工程,2008(4):67-71.(YUN Y,ZOU Z H,WANG H W.A Regression model based on the compositional data of Beijing′s Water consumed structure and industrial structure[J].Systems Engineering,2008(4):67-71.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1001-4098.2008.04.012.
[4]刘晓霞,解建仓.山西省用水结构与产业结构变动关系[J].系统工程,2011,29(4):45-52.2008(04):67-71.(LIU X X,XIE J C.The relationship between water consumed structure and industrial structure in Shanxi Province[J].Systems Engineering,2011,29(4):45-52.(in Chinese))
[5]苏伟洲,王成璋,杜念霜.水资源与产业结构关系及产业结构调整倒逼机制研究[J].科技进步与对策,2015,32(6):80-84.(SU W Z,WANG C Z,DU N S.Research on the Relationship between Water Resources and Industrial Structure and the Mechanism of Industrial Structure Adjustment[J].Science&Technology Progress and Policy,2015,32(6):80-84.(in Chinese))DOI:10.6049/kjjbydc.2014120631.
[6]雷社平,解建仓,黄明聪,等.区域产业用水系统的协调度分析[J].水利学报,2004(5):14-19.(LEI S P,XIE JC,HUANG M C,et al.Coordination degree analysis of regional industry water use system[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2004(5):14-19.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3321/j.issn:0559-9350.2004.05.003.
[7]袁少军,王如松,胡聃,等.城市产业结构偏水度评价方法研究[J].水利学报,2004(10):43-47.(YUAN S J,WANG R S,HU D,et al.Method for assessing the partiality of urban industrial structure to high water consumption[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2004(10):43-47.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3321/j.issn:0559-9350.2004.10.007.
[8]蒋桂芹,于福亮,赵勇.区域产业结构与用水结构协调度评价与调控---以安徽省为例[J].水利水电技术,2012,43(6):8-11,15.(JIANG G Q,YU F L,ZHAOY.Assessment and regulation of coordinated degree between regional industrial structure and water utilization structure-A case of Anhui Province[J].Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering,2012,43(6):8-11,15.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-0860.2012.06.003.
[9]贾程程,张礼兵,徐勇俊,等.基于信息熵的山东省用水结构与产业结构协调性分析[J].水电能源科学,2016,34(5):17-19.(JIA C C,ZHANG L B,XU Y J,et al.Analysis of coordination between water structure and industrial structure in Shandong Province based on information entropy[J].International Journal Hydroelectric Energy,2016,34(5):17-19.(in Chinese))
[10]刘宝勤,姚治君,高迎春.北京市用水结构变化趋势及驱动力分析[J].资源科学,2003(2):38-43.(LIU BQ,YAO Z J,GAO Y C.Trend and driving forces of water consumed structure changes in Beijing[J].Resources Science,2003(2):38-43.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3321/j.issn:1007-7588.2003.02.007.
[11]贾绍凤,张士锋,夏军,等.经济结构调整的节水效应[J].水利学报,2004(3):111-116.(JIA S F,ZHANGS F,XIA J,et al.Effect of economic structure adjustment on water saving[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2004(03):111-116.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3321/j.issn:0559-9350.2004.03.019.
[12]孙才志,谢巍.中国产业用水变化驱动效应测度及空间分异[J].经济地理,2011,31(4):666-672.(SUN CZ,XIE W.Driving effect measurement and spatial differentiation of industrial water use change in China[J].Economic Geography,2011,31(4):666-672.(in Chinese))DOI:10.15957/j.cnki.jjdl.2011.04.024.
[13]潘雄锋,刘凤朝,郭蓉蓉.我国用水结构的分析与预测[J].干旱区资源与环境,2008(10):11-14.(PAN XF,LIU F C,GUO R R.Analysis and prediction of water use structure in China[J].Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2008(10):11-14.(in Chinese))DOI:10.13448/j.cnki.jalre.2008.10.019.
[14]章平.产业结构演进中的用水需求研究-以深圳为例[J].技术经济,2010,29(7):65-71.(ZHANG P.Empirical study on the water demand during the evolution of industrial structure:evidence from Shenzhen.[J].Technology Economics,2010,29(7):65-71.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1002-980X.2010.07.012.
[15]王惠文,黄薇.成分数据的线性回归模型[J].系统工程,2003(2):102-106.(WANG H W,HUANG W.ASimple linear regression model based on the compositional data[J].Systems Engineering,2003(2):102-106.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1001-4098.2003.02.022.
[16]原静.成分数据组合预测模型及其应用[D].太原:山西大学,2012.(YUAN J.Combination forecasting model of component data and its application[D].Taiyuan:Shanxi University,2012.(in Chinese))
[17]蒋蕾,陈远生,李璐.近20年北京市产业取水与节水变化分析[J].自然资源学报,2011,26(6):1040-1051.(JIANG L,CHEN Y S,LI L.Dynamic analysis on the industrial water withdrawal and water saving of Beijing in the past 20years[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2011,26(6):1040-1051.(in Chinese))DOI:10.11849/zrzyxb.2011.06.015.
[18]刘洋,李丽娟.京津冀地区产业结构演进特征分析[J].南水北调与水利科技,2018,16(4):7-16,25.(LIU Y,LI L J.Analysis on characteristics of industrial structure evolution in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region[J].South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science&Technology,2018,16(4):7-16,25.(in Chinese))DOI:10.13476/j.cnki.nsbdqk.2018.0091.
[19]钟科元,陈莹,陈兴伟,等.福建省用水结构与产业结构相关性的区域变化[J].南水北调与水利科技,2015,13(3):593-596,605.(ZHONG K Y,CHEN Y,CHEN X W,et al.Analysis of the correlation between water consumed structure and industrial structure in different regions of Fujian Province.[J].South-toNorth Water Transfers and Water Science&Technology,2015,13(3):593-596,605.(in Chinese))DOI:10.13476/j.cnki.nsbdq k.2015.03.043.