WRF模式对乌鲁木齐机场一次冻雾天气的数值预报对比试验分析
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摘要
利用WRF模式和GFS资料对2016年11月28—29日乌鲁木齐机场一次冻雾天气过程进行预报,针对不同微物理过程、近地层、陆面过程、边界层等方案设计了13个预报方案组合,并将预报结果与观测资料进行对比分析发现,此次冻雾过程预报中,模式对陆面过程、近地层、边界层等参数化方案组合较为敏感,最优方案组合微物理过程为WDM6、近地层方案为QNSE,陆面过程方案为Noah,边界层方案QNSE。以最优的方案组合预报结果对此次冻雾进行分析,发现利用模式预报的环流形势、层结条件、温湿条件、混合条件等能够很好的判断出此次冻雾过程。就此个例而言,WRF模式预报的机场上空稳定层的变化,湿层结构、风场的水平和垂直结构等,对冻雾的生消以及冻雾过程中的能见度变化有一定的指示意义。
A freezing fog event occurred at Urumqi airport during 28-29 November 2016 is simulated by using WRF model and GFS data, and the simulated results from 13 different combinations of WRF model schemes,such as microphysical schemes,surface-layer schemes,LSM schemes and PBL schemes are compared. Results shows that the simulation are sensitive to different combinations of WRF model schemes. The optimized scheme for this freezing fog simulation is the combination of WDM6 microphysical scheme,QNSE surface-layer scheme,Noah LSM and QNSE PBL. The simulation from this combination shows that the freezing fog event can be well diagnosed by using the forecasted circulation pattern,stratification condition,temperature and relative humidity. In this case,the change of stable stratification above the airport,the horizontal and vertical structure of relative humidity and wind field simulated by WRF model have valuable guidance to the occurrence and dispersion of the freezing fog and the change of visibility.
A freezing fog event occurred at Urumqi airport during 28-29 November 2016 is simulated by using WRF model and GFS data, and the simulated results from 13 different combinations of WRF model schemes,such as microphysical schemes,surface-layer schemes,LSM schemes and PBL schemes are compared. Results shows that the simulation are sensitive to different combinations of WRF model schemes. The optimized scheme for this freezing fog simulation is the combination of WDM6 microphysical scheme,QNSE surface-layer scheme,Noah LSM and QNSE PBL. The simulation from this combination shows that the freezing fog event can be well diagnosed by using the forecasted circulation pattern,stratification condition,temperature and relative humidity. In this case,the change of stable stratification above the airport,the horizontal and vertical structure of relative humidity and wind field simulated by WRF model have valuable guidance to the occurrence and dispersion of the freezing fog and the change of visibility.
引文
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[3]黄政,袁成松,包云轩,等.基于不同参数化方案的高速公路大雾过程的数值模拟试验[J].气象,2016,42(8):944-953.
[4]周梅,银燕,王巍巍.2006年12月24—27日大范围大雾过程数值模拟[J].应用气象学报,2008,19(5):602-610.
[5]梁爱民,张庆红,刘开宇,等.华北地区一次大雾过程的三维变分同化试验[J].气象学报,2007,65(5):792-803.
[6]刘开宇,梁爱民,蔡军,等.贵阳机场一次辐射大雾的数值模拟研究[J].贵州气象,2007,31(3):10-13.
[7]王金兰,寿绍文,刘泽军,等.河南省一次大雾的数值模拟及生消机制分析[J].气象与环境科学.2008,31(1):39-44.
[8]《新疆短期天气预报指导手册》编写组.新疆短期天气预报指导手册[M].乌鲁木齐:新疆人民出版社,1986.
[9]王春红.乌鲁木齐国际机场2009年秋冬初雾天气的数值模拟分析[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2011,5(5):15-19.
[10]王楠,杨洪儒,梁艳.近37 a乌鲁木齐机场雾的不均匀性特征分析[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2015,9(4):43-49.
[11]万小雁,包云轩,严明良,等.不同陆面方案对沪宁高速公路团雾的模拟[J].气象科学,2010,30(4).487-494.
[12]彭双姿,刘从省,屈右铭,等.一次大范围辐射雾天气过程的观测和数值模拟分析[J].气象,2012,38(6):679-687.
[13]包云轩,丁秋冀,袁成松,等.沪宁高速公路一次复杂性大雾过程的数值模拟试验[J].大气科学,2013,37(1):124-136.
[14]荣昕.基于WRF-CHEM模式的连续雾霾过程数值模拟及其能见度参数化[D].南京:南京信息工程大学,2013,25-26.
[15]石春娥,李耀孙,杨军,等.MM5和WRF对中国东部地区冬季边界层模拟效果比较[J].高原气象,2015,34(2):389-399.
[16]周旺,刘昊,樊斌.重庆机场辐射雾消散机制[J].气象,2008,34(T1):231-237.