南印度洋大气垂直环流与江西6月降水的关系
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摘要
使用江西省82站1959—2016年6月降水资料和NCEP/NCAR逐月再分析资料,研究了南印度洋大气垂直环流与江西6月降水的关系,并运用大尺度局地涡度倾向变化方程诊断了年际、年代际变化引起的局地涡度倾向异常对江西6月降水的贡献,解释了南印度洋大气垂直环流与江西6月降水年际关系发生年代际改变的原因。结果表明南印度洋大气垂直环流与江西6月降水有密切的关系,且两者的年际关系存在年代际变化:(1)二者关系在1960年代末和1990年代初发生了两次转变,1969年前为显著正相关,1969—1989年相关性不明显,1990年后又转变为显著正相关。(2)江西6月降水偏多年,500 hPa上东亚地区从中高纬到低纬为"+-+"距平符号分布,江西区域异常正涡度,低层南北风距平在江西上空交汇;降水偏少年环流异常则相反。(3)南印度洋大气垂直环流可引起东亚环流异常,使江西区域涡度正异常;但其影响与背景场的变化有关。动力诊断表明,1969—1989年南印度洋大气垂直环流年际异常对江西局地涡度为正贡献,但年代际异常为负贡献,削弱了年际异常的作用;1990—2016年阶段年际异常为正贡献,同时年代际异常也为正贡献,加强了年际异常的作用,使得其与江西6月降水的正相关显著。
Based on the June precipitation data from 82 stations in Jiangxi Province and the NCEP/NCAR monthly analysis data from 1959—2016, the relationship between southern Indian Ocean vertical circulation and June rainfall in Jiangxi is analyzed. The large-scale vorticity tendency equation is used to diagnose the contribution of local vorticity anomalies caused by interannual and interdecadal variations towards June rainfall in Jiangxi, which may explain the possible causes of their changed interdecal relationship. The results show that the southern Indian Ocean vertical circulation is closely related to June rainfall in Jiangxi,and their interannual relationship shows interdecadal changes:(1) Their relationship changed twice in the late 1960 s and early 1990 s. It was a significant positive correlation before 1969; during 1969—1989, the southern Indian Ocean vertical circulation had no significant correlation with June rainfall in Jiangxi, and during 1990—2016, the relationship changed to significant positive correlation.(2) In the flood years, the anomalies of East Asia from middle high latitude to low latitude is of"+-+"in the 500 hPa potential height field, with positive anomalous vorticity and 850 hPa north-south wind intersection in Jiangxi. It is the opposite in drought years.(3) The southern Indian Ocean vertical circulation can cause anomalies of the East Asian circulation, and lead to positive anomalies of vorticity in Jiangxi, which is related to the changes of the background field. Dynamic diagnosis shows that during 1969—1989 the interannual anomaly of the southern Indian Ocean vertical circulation contributed positively to the local vorticity in Jiangxi, but the interdecadal anomaly contributed negatively, weakening the role of interannual anomalies; the period from1990 to 2016 is a positive phase, strengthening the role of interannual anomalies, making the southern Indian Ocean vertical circulation correlate positively with June rainfall in Jiangxi.
Based on the June precipitation data from 82 stations in Jiangxi Province and the NCEP/NCAR monthly analysis data from 1959—2016, the relationship between southern Indian Ocean vertical circulation and June rainfall in Jiangxi is analyzed. The large-scale vorticity tendency equation is used to diagnose the contribution of local vorticity anomalies caused by interannual and interdecadal variations towards June rainfall in Jiangxi, which may explain the possible causes of their changed interdecal relationship. The results show that the southern Indian Ocean vertical circulation is closely related to June rainfall in Jiangxi,and their interannual relationship shows interdecadal changes:(1) Their relationship changed twice in the late 1960 s and early 1990 s. It was a significant positive correlation before 1969; during 1969—1989, the southern Indian Ocean vertical circulation had no significant correlation with June rainfall in Jiangxi, and during 1990—2016, the relationship changed to significant positive correlation.(2) In the flood years, the anomalies of East Asia from middle high latitude to low latitude is of"+-+"in the 500 hPa potential height field, with positive anomalous vorticity and 850 hPa north-south wind intersection in Jiangxi. It is the opposite in drought years.(3) The southern Indian Ocean vertical circulation can cause anomalies of the East Asian circulation, and lead to positive anomalies of vorticity in Jiangxi, which is related to the changes of the background field. Dynamic diagnosis shows that during 1969—1989 the interannual anomaly of the southern Indian Ocean vertical circulation contributed positively to the local vorticity in Jiangxi, but the interdecadal anomaly contributed negatively, weakening the role of interannual anomalies; the period from1990 to 2016 is a positive phase, strengthening the role of interannual anomalies, making the southern Indian Ocean vertical circulation correlate positively with June rainfall in Jiangxi.
引文
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[10]陈红,薛峰.东亚夏季风和中国东部夏季降水年代际变化的模拟[J].大气科学, 2013, 37(5):1 143-1 153.
[11]丁一汇,孙颖,刘芸芸,等.亚洲夏季风的年际和年代际变化及其未来预测[J].大气科学, 2013, 37(2):253-280.
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[13]余贞寿,孙照渤,曾刚.太平洋SSTA对中国东部夏季降水的影响Ⅰ——观测分析[J].热带气象学报, 2005, 21(5):467-477.
[14]谭桂容,耿新,卢明.热带太平洋低层环流主模态与东亚大气环流的可能联系[J].大气科学学报, 2016, 39(2):145-155.
[15]宗海锋,张庆云,陈烈庭.东亚-太平洋遥相关型形成过程与ENSO盛期海温关系的研究[J].大气科学, 2008, 32(2):220-230.
[16]宗海锋.两个典型ENSO季节演变模态及其与我国东部降水的联系[J].大气科学, 2017, 41(6):1 264-1 283.
[17]熊蜀斐,陆叔鸣,文绮新,等.厄尔尼诺及海温对江西6月降水的影响[J].江西气象科技, 1999,22(4):8-9+23.
[18]马锋敏,张超美,张传江,等. 2011年4月江西降水异常偏少的初步诊断分析[J].气象与减灾研究, 2011, 34(4):16-22.
[19]尹洁. 2004年6月江西降水异常偏少成因初探[J].气象, 2005, 31(11):75-78.
[20] ZHANG R H. Relations of water vapor transport from Indian Monsoon with that over East Asia and the summer rainfall in China[J]. Adv Atmos Sci, 2001,18(5):1 005-1 017.
[21] TAN G R, REN H L, CHEN H S, et al. Detecting primary precursors of January surface air temperature anomalies in China[J]. J Meteor Res, 2017, 31(6):1 096-1 108.
[22] YANG J, LIU Q, XIE S P, et al. Impact of the Indian Ocean SST basin mode on the Asian summer monsoon[J]. Geophy Res Lett, 2007,34(2):155-164.
[23]肖子牛,晏红明,李崇银.印度洋地区异常海温的偶极振荡与中国降水及温度的关系[J].热带气象学报, 2002, 18(4):335-344.
[24]杨明珠,丁一汇.中国夏季降水对南印度洋偶极子的响应研究[J].大气科学, 2007, 31(4):685-694.
[25]谭桂容,孙照渤,闵锦忠,等.北太平洋海温异常的空间模态及其与东亚环流异常的关系[J].大气科学, 2009, 33(5):1 038-1 046.
[26] LIU P, SUI C H. An observational analysis of the oceanic and atmospheric structure of global-scale multi-decadal variability[J]. Adv Atmos Sci, 2014, 31(2):316-330.
[27]覃军,王盘兴.中国东部夏季三个雨带降水的年代际变化及其与中高纬环流和海温的关系[J].热带气象学报, 2005, 21(1):63-71.
[28] DING Y, WANG Z, SUN Y. Inter-decadal variation of the summer precipitation in East China and its association with decreasing Asian summer monsoon. Part I:Observed evidences[J]. Int J Climat, 2008,28(9):1 139-1 161.
[29]张人禾,武炳义,赵平,等.中国东部夏季气候20世纪80年代后期的年代际转型及其可能成因[J].气象学报, 2008, 66(5):697-706.
[30]黄荣辉,陈际龙,刘永.我国东部夏季降水异常主模态的年代际变化及其与东亚水汽输送的关系[J].大气科学, 2011, 35(4):589-606.
[31] XU Z Q, FAN K, WANG H J. Decadal variation of summer precipitation over China and associated atmospheric circulation after the late1990s[J]. J Climate, 2015, 28(10):4 086-4 106.
[32] WU B, ZHOU T J, LI T. Impacts of the Pacific-Japan and circumglobal teleconnection patterns on the interdecadal variability of the East Asian summer monsoon[J]. J Climate, 2016, 29(9):3 253-3 271.
[33]徐康,何金海,祝从文.近50年中国东部夏季降水与贝加尔湖地表气温年代际变化的关系[J].气象学报, 2011, 69(4):570-580.
[34]徐康,祝从文,何金海.近50年环贝加尔湖区变暖对中国华北夏季降水的影响机理[J].高原气象, 2011, 30(2):309-317.
[35]卢明,谭桂容,陈海山,等.江淮夏季降水异常与西印度洋地区大气环流异常的关系[J].气象科学, 2013, 33(5):510-518.
[36]孙鸣婧,谭桂容,卢明.西印度洋大气垂直环流与江淮夏季降水关系的年代际变化[J].热带气象学报, 2016, 32(2):237-245.
[37] TAN G R, REN H L, CHEN H S. Quantifying synoptic eddy feedback onto the low-frequency flow associated with anomalous temperature events in January over China[J]. Int J Climat, 2015, 35(8):1 976-1 983.
[2]黄荣辉,徐予红,周连童.我国夏季降水的年代际变化及华北干旱化趋势[J].高原气象, 1999, 18(4):465-476.
[3]杜银,张耀存,谢志清.东亚副热带西风急流位置变化及其对中国东部夏季降水异常分布的影响[J].大气科学, 2009, 33(3):581-592.
[4]邓伟涛,孙照渤,曾刚,等.中国东部夏季降水型的年代际变化及其与北太平洋海温的关系[J].大气科学, 2009, 33(4):835-846.
[5] WU B, ZHOU T J, LI T. Seasonally evolving dominant interannual variability modes of East Asian climate[J]. J Climate, 2009, 22(11):2 992-3 005.
[6] FANG Y H, CHEN K Q, CHEN H S, et al. The remote responses of early summer cold vortex precipitation in northeastern China compared with the previous sea surface temperatures[J]. Atmospheric Research, 2018:399-409.
[7]赵振国,陈国珍.初夏西太平洋副高南北位置长期变化的成因及预报[J].热带气象学报, 1995, 11(3):223-230.
[8] HE J H, ZHOU B, WEN M, et al. Vertical circulationst ructure, interannua, variation features and variation mechanism of western Pacific subtropical high[J]. Adv Atmos Sci, 2001, 18(4):497-510.
[9]管兆勇,蔡佳熙,唐卫亚,等.长江中下游夏季气温变化型与西太平洋副高活动异常的联系[J].气象科学, 2010, 30(5):666-675.
[10]陈红,薛峰.东亚夏季风和中国东部夏季降水年代际变化的模拟[J].大气科学, 2013, 37(5):1 143-1 153.
[11]丁一汇,孙颖,刘芸芸,等.亚洲夏季风的年际和年代际变化及其未来预测[J].大气科学, 2013, 37(2):253-280.
[12]邹力,倪允琪. ENSO对亚洲夏季风异常和我国夏季降水的影响[J].热带气象学报, 1997, 13(4):19-27.
[13]余贞寿,孙照渤,曾刚.太平洋SSTA对中国东部夏季降水的影响Ⅰ——观测分析[J].热带气象学报, 2005, 21(5):467-477.
[14]谭桂容,耿新,卢明.热带太平洋低层环流主模态与东亚大气环流的可能联系[J].大气科学学报, 2016, 39(2):145-155.
[15]宗海锋,张庆云,陈烈庭.东亚-太平洋遥相关型形成过程与ENSO盛期海温关系的研究[J].大气科学, 2008, 32(2):220-230.
[16]宗海锋.两个典型ENSO季节演变模态及其与我国东部降水的联系[J].大气科学, 2017, 41(6):1 264-1 283.
[17]熊蜀斐,陆叔鸣,文绮新,等.厄尔尼诺及海温对江西6月降水的影响[J].江西气象科技, 1999,22(4):8-9+23.
[18]马锋敏,张超美,张传江,等. 2011年4月江西降水异常偏少的初步诊断分析[J].气象与减灾研究, 2011, 34(4):16-22.
[19]尹洁. 2004年6月江西降水异常偏少成因初探[J].气象, 2005, 31(11):75-78.
[20] ZHANG R H. Relations of water vapor transport from Indian Monsoon with that over East Asia and the summer rainfall in China[J]. Adv Atmos Sci, 2001,18(5):1 005-1 017.
[21] TAN G R, REN H L, CHEN H S, et al. Detecting primary precursors of January surface air temperature anomalies in China[J]. J Meteor Res, 2017, 31(6):1 096-1 108.
[22] YANG J, LIU Q, XIE S P, et al. Impact of the Indian Ocean SST basin mode on the Asian summer monsoon[J]. Geophy Res Lett, 2007,34(2):155-164.
[23]肖子牛,晏红明,李崇银.印度洋地区异常海温的偶极振荡与中国降水及温度的关系[J].热带气象学报, 2002, 18(4):335-344.
[24]杨明珠,丁一汇.中国夏季降水对南印度洋偶极子的响应研究[J].大气科学, 2007, 31(4):685-694.
[25]谭桂容,孙照渤,闵锦忠,等.北太平洋海温异常的空间模态及其与东亚环流异常的关系[J].大气科学, 2009, 33(5):1 038-1 046.
[26] LIU P, SUI C H. An observational analysis of the oceanic and atmospheric structure of global-scale multi-decadal variability[J]. Adv Atmos Sci, 2014, 31(2):316-330.
[27]覃军,王盘兴.中国东部夏季三个雨带降水的年代际变化及其与中高纬环流和海温的关系[J].热带气象学报, 2005, 21(1):63-71.
[28] DING Y, WANG Z, SUN Y. Inter-decadal variation of the summer precipitation in East China and its association with decreasing Asian summer monsoon. Part I:Observed evidences[J]. Int J Climat, 2008,28(9):1 139-1 161.
[29]张人禾,武炳义,赵平,等.中国东部夏季气候20世纪80年代后期的年代际转型及其可能成因[J].气象学报, 2008, 66(5):697-706.
[30]黄荣辉,陈际龙,刘永.我国东部夏季降水异常主模态的年代际变化及其与东亚水汽输送的关系[J].大气科学, 2011, 35(4):589-606.
[31] XU Z Q, FAN K, WANG H J. Decadal variation of summer precipitation over China and associated atmospheric circulation after the late1990s[J]. J Climate, 2015, 28(10):4 086-4 106.
[32] WU B, ZHOU T J, LI T. Impacts of the Pacific-Japan and circumglobal teleconnection patterns on the interdecadal variability of the East Asian summer monsoon[J]. J Climate, 2016, 29(9):3 253-3 271.
[33]徐康,何金海,祝从文.近50年中国东部夏季降水与贝加尔湖地表气温年代际变化的关系[J].气象学报, 2011, 69(4):570-580.
[34]徐康,祝从文,何金海.近50年环贝加尔湖区变暖对中国华北夏季降水的影响机理[J].高原气象, 2011, 30(2):309-317.
[35]卢明,谭桂容,陈海山,等.江淮夏季降水异常与西印度洋地区大气环流异常的关系[J].气象科学, 2013, 33(5):510-518.
[36]孙鸣婧,谭桂容,卢明.西印度洋大气垂直环流与江淮夏季降水关系的年代际变化[J].热带气象学报, 2016, 32(2):237-245.
[37] TAN G R, REN H L, CHEN H S. Quantifying synoptic eddy feedback onto the low-frequency flow associated with anomalous temperature events in January over China[J]. Int J Climat, 2015, 35(8):1 976-1 983.