有限储存能力视角下可再生能源发展研究
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摘要
发展可再生能源是应对全球气候变暖等气候变化问题的一项重要举措,然而储存能力制约着可再生能源企业产能决策。基于此,研究了可再生能源企业产能的储存能力约束且允许产能缺货情况下多周期产能决策问题,构建成本最小化模型并分析得出最优解的特性,运用数值实验分析了可再生能源企业的运营成本与产能的储存能力、固定成本、储能成本和产能缺货成本之间的相互关系,并阐述了可再生能源生产企业需要综合考虑各种因素取得合理的决策结果以增加自己的产能效益;以及提出了可再生能源发展需要自主创新、高素质人才培养、参与国际合作、公共服务体系建立和拓宽融资渠道等政策建议。
The development of renewable energy development is an important measure to deal with the global warming. However,storage capacity restricts the decision of renewable enterprises on production capacity. Based on this fact,the paper studies the dynamic decision for the renewable energy enterprises under the energy storage capacity and the possibility of capacity shortage. We study the variable costs of each period with no speculative motive for holding and stockout. By developing a forward dynamic programming algorithm,we compute the optimal decision of the renewable energy enterprises for a T-period problem to minimize the setup cost,variable cost,stockout cost and holding cost. Finally,we use a computational experiment to analyze the relationship between the total cost and energy storage capacity,setup cost,holding cost and stockout cost,and put forward the policy that the development of renewable energy needs independent innovation,cultivation of high-quality talents,participation in international cooperation,establishment of public service system and expansion of financing channels.
The development of renewable energy development is an important measure to deal with the global warming. However,storage capacity restricts the decision of renewable enterprises on production capacity. Based on this fact,the paper studies the dynamic decision for the renewable energy enterprises under the energy storage capacity and the possibility of capacity shortage. We study the variable costs of each period with no speculative motive for holding and stockout. By developing a forward dynamic programming algorithm,we compute the optimal decision of the renewable energy enterprises for a T-period problem to minimize the setup cost,variable cost,stockout cost and holding cost. Finally,we use a computational experiment to analyze the relationship between the total cost and energy storage capacity,setup cost,holding cost and stockout cost,and put forward the policy that the development of renewable energy needs independent innovation,cultivation of high-quality talents,participation in international cooperation,establishment of public service system and expansion of financing channels.
引文
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[11]师华.“上网电价计划”的环境与贸易冲突及我国的对策[J].山西大学学报:哲学社会科学版,2014,37(5):80-92.
[12]杜玉琼.“一带一路”背景下我国发展可再生能源补贴的合规性解析[J].四川师范大学学报:社会科学版,2017,44(6):40-45.
[13]张军旗,魏新亚. SCM协定下我国当前可再生能源补贴措施问题分析[J].国际经贸探索,2018,44(4):104-114.
[14]蔡跃洲,李平.技术-经济范式转换与可再生能源产业技术创新[J].财经研究,2017,14(1):16-29.
[15]刘微微,邢菁.可再生能源技术吸收能力对我国能源产业绩效的影响[J].管理学报,2018,40(8):93-99.
[16]Huh S Y,Lee C Y. Diffusion of renewable energy technol-ogies in South Korea on incorporating their competitive in-terrelationships[J]. Energy Policy,2014,69(2):248-257.
[17]毛荐其,孙静林,刘娜.中国储能技术科学能力测度与国际比较[J].科研管理,2016,37(12):19-27.
[18]Ringel M. Fostering the use of renewable energies in theEuropean Union:the race between feed-in tariffs andgreen certificates[J]. Renewable Energy,2006,31(1):1-17.
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[20]李庆,陈敏.中国风电固定上网电价政策的实物期权理论与实证分析[J].中国管理科学,2016,24(5):65-73.
[21]刘层层,李南,楚永杰.可再生能源价格政策在寡头竞争市场中的比较[J].运筹与管理,2017,26(7):64-73.
[22]Boomsma T K,Meade N,Fleten S E. Renewable energyinvestments under different support schemes:A real op-tions approach[J]. European Journal of Operational Re-search,2012,220(1):225-237.
[23]李力,朱磊,范英.不确定条件下可再生能源项目的竞争性投资决策[J].中国管理科学,2017,25(7):11-17.
[24]公丕芹,李昕旸.碳交易机制下可再生能源投资价值与投资时机研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2017,27(3):22-29.
[25]Nguyen M H,Nguyen-Van P. Growth and convergencein a model with renewable and nonrenewable resources[EB/OL].(2008-10-25)[2018-04-16]. http:∥www2. toulouse. inra. fr/lerna/travaux/cahiers.
[26]Simone B,Rieeardo M P,Federieo M P. Models of with-drawing renewable and non-renewable resources based onOdum’s energy systems theory and Daly's quasi-sustain-ability principle[J]. Ecological Modelling,2009,220(16):1926-1930.
[27]Acemoglu D,Aghion P,Bursztyn L,Hemous D. The En-vironment and Directed Technical Change[J]. AmericanEconomic Review,2012,102(1):131-166.
[28]陈雅琳,高吉喜,李咏红.中国化石能源以生物质能源替代的潜力及环境效应研究[J].中国环境科学,2010,30(10):1425-1431.
[29]石敏俊,周晟吕.低碳技术发展对中国实现减排目标的作用[J].管理评论,2017(6):48-53.
[30]Requate T. Environmental policy under imperfect competi-tion:a survey[EB/OL].(2005-12-01)[2018-04-16]. https:∥www. econstor. eu/dspace/bitstream/10419/22000/1/EWP-2005-12. pdf.
[31]高建刚.再生能源生产和消费中的外部性与最优政策———以生物质能为例[J].北京理工大学学报:社会科学版,2018,18(1):38-44.
[32]孔令丞,朱振宁,涂改革,张为四.可再生能源发电并网的多方合意合约设计[J].系统管理学报,2018,27(1):10-22.
[33]Held A,Ragwitz M,Mario Haas. On the success of pdicystrategies for the promotion of electricity from renewableenergy sources in the EU[J]. Energy&Environment,2006,17(6):849-868.
[34]刘洽,赵秋红.政策对发电企业能源决策的影响及最优化模型[J].系统工程理论与实践,2015,35(7):1717-1725.
[35]Federgruen A,Tzur M. A Simple Forward Algorithm toSolve General Dynamic Lot Sizing Models with n Periods in0(n log n)or 0(n)Time[J]. Management Science,1991,37(8):909-925.
[2]Bilgili F,Kosak E,Bulut U. The dynamic impact of renew-able energy consumption on CO2emissions:A revisited En-vironment Kuznets Curve approach[J]. Renewable&Sus-tainable Energy Reviews,2016,54(1):838-845.
[3]Bhattacharya M,Paramati S R,Ozturk I,et al. The effectof renewable energy consumption on economic growth:Evi-dence from top 38 countries[J]. Applied Energy,2016,162(1):733-741.
[4]Mahesh A,Jasmin Kss. Role of renewable energy invest-ment in India:An alternative to CO2mitigation[J]. Re-newable&Sustainable Energy Reviews,2013,26(10):414-424.
[5]Jebli M B,Youssef S B,Ozturk I. Testing environmentalKuznets curve hypothesis:The role of renewable and non-renewable energy consumption and trade in OECD countries[J]. Ecological Indicators,2016,60(1):824-831.
[6]Lee C W,Zhong J. Top down strategy for renewable energyinvestment:Conceptual framework and implementation[J].Renewable Energy,2014,68(14):761-773.
[7]Gullberg A T,Ohlhorst D,Schreurs M. Towards a low car-bon energy future-Renewable energy cooperation betweenGermany and Norway[J]. Renewable Energy,2014,68(15):216-222.
[8]肖兴国.能源发展转型的法律路径:从资源优势走向竞争[J].中州学刊,2013(11):44-50.
[9]王文举,陈真玲.改革开放40年能源产业发展的阶段性特征及其战略选择[J].改革,2018(5):55-65.
[10]马丽梅,史丹,裴庆冰.国家能源低碳转型与可再生能源发展:限制因素、供给特征与成本竞争力比较[J].经济社会体制比较,2018(5):71-79.
[11]师华.“上网电价计划”的环境与贸易冲突及我国的对策[J].山西大学学报:哲学社会科学版,2014,37(5):80-92.
[12]杜玉琼.“一带一路”背景下我国发展可再生能源补贴的合规性解析[J].四川师范大学学报:社会科学版,2017,44(6):40-45.
[13]张军旗,魏新亚. SCM协定下我国当前可再生能源补贴措施问题分析[J].国际经贸探索,2018,44(4):104-114.
[14]蔡跃洲,李平.技术-经济范式转换与可再生能源产业技术创新[J].财经研究,2017,14(1):16-29.
[15]刘微微,邢菁.可再生能源技术吸收能力对我国能源产业绩效的影响[J].管理学报,2018,40(8):93-99.
[16]Huh S Y,Lee C Y. Diffusion of renewable energy technol-ogies in South Korea on incorporating their competitive in-terrelationships[J]. Energy Policy,2014,69(2):248-257.
[17]毛荐其,孙静林,刘娜.中国储能技术科学能力测度与国际比较[J].科研管理,2016,37(12):19-27.
[18]Ringel M. Fostering the use of renewable energies in theEuropean Union:the race between feed-in tariffs andgreen certificates[J]. Renewable Energy,2006,31(1):1-17.
[19]Verbruggen A,Lauber V. Basic concepts for designing re-newable electricity support aiming at a full-scale transi-tion by 2050[J]. Energy Policy,2009,37(12):5732-5743.
[20]李庆,陈敏.中国风电固定上网电价政策的实物期权理论与实证分析[J].中国管理科学,2016,24(5):65-73.
[21]刘层层,李南,楚永杰.可再生能源价格政策在寡头竞争市场中的比较[J].运筹与管理,2017,26(7):64-73.
[22]Boomsma T K,Meade N,Fleten S E. Renewable energyinvestments under different support schemes:A real op-tions approach[J]. European Journal of Operational Re-search,2012,220(1):225-237.
[23]李力,朱磊,范英.不确定条件下可再生能源项目的竞争性投资决策[J].中国管理科学,2017,25(7):11-17.
[24]公丕芹,李昕旸.碳交易机制下可再生能源投资价值与投资时机研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2017,27(3):22-29.
[25]Nguyen M H,Nguyen-Van P. Growth and convergencein a model with renewable and nonrenewable resources[EB/OL].(2008-10-25)[2018-04-16]. http:∥www2. toulouse. inra. fr/lerna/travaux/cahiers.
[26]Simone B,Rieeardo M P,Federieo M P. Models of with-drawing renewable and non-renewable resources based onOdum’s energy systems theory and Daly's quasi-sustain-ability principle[J]. Ecological Modelling,2009,220(16):1926-1930.
[27]Acemoglu D,Aghion P,Bursztyn L,Hemous D. The En-vironment and Directed Technical Change[J]. AmericanEconomic Review,2012,102(1):131-166.
[28]陈雅琳,高吉喜,李咏红.中国化石能源以生物质能源替代的潜力及环境效应研究[J].中国环境科学,2010,30(10):1425-1431.
[29]石敏俊,周晟吕.低碳技术发展对中国实现减排目标的作用[J].管理评论,2017(6):48-53.
[30]Requate T. Environmental policy under imperfect competi-tion:a survey[EB/OL].(2005-12-01)[2018-04-16]. https:∥www. econstor. eu/dspace/bitstream/10419/22000/1/EWP-2005-12. pdf.
[31]高建刚.再生能源生产和消费中的外部性与最优政策———以生物质能为例[J].北京理工大学学报:社会科学版,2018,18(1):38-44.
[32]孔令丞,朱振宁,涂改革,张为四.可再生能源发电并网的多方合意合约设计[J].系统管理学报,2018,27(1):10-22.
[33]Held A,Ragwitz M,Mario Haas. On the success of pdicystrategies for the promotion of electricity from renewableenergy sources in the EU[J]. Energy&Environment,2006,17(6):849-868.
[34]刘洽,赵秋红.政策对发电企业能源决策的影响及最优化模型[J].系统工程理论与实践,2015,35(7):1717-1725.
[35]Federgruen A,Tzur M. A Simple Forward Algorithm toSolve General Dynamic Lot Sizing Models with n Periods in0(n log n)or 0(n)Time[J]. Management Science,1991,37(8):909-925.