近40 a河南省夏季降水变化特征分析
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摘要
基于河南省111个气象站1971—2010年的逐日降水数据,分析了河南省夏季不同强度降水事件的时空演特征。结果表明:近40 a来,河南省夏季降雨量整体呈上升趋势,各等级降水事件对夏季降雨量贡献率依次是:小雨、中雨、大雨及暴雨,其中小雨和中雨对夏季降雨量的贡献呈下降趋势,而大雨和暴雨对夏季降雨量的贡献呈上升趋势;大部分区域在降雨量增加同时,降雨日数却在减少,即降雨呈现出极端化发展的趋势。借助小波分析表明,降雨量、降雨日数和降雨强度均表现出2~3 a左右的低频振荡周期,且降雨量和降雨日数的周期具有较好的一致性。为探究降水变化成因,本文对河南省夏季旱涝年大气环流场进行了合成分析,分析表明:偏旱年其500 h Pa高空的100°E)以东大部分区域为位势高度正距平区,不利于东部的冷空气南下,850 h Pa低空盛行偏北风且多下沉运动,水汽较难输送到河南省上空;而偏涝年高空110°E以东为位势高度负距平区,短波槽活动频繁,110°E以西为高压脊区,其低空多偏南风,有利于孟加拉湾的暖湿气流北上,配合较强的垂直上升运动,旺盛的对流和充足的水汽均利于降水过程的发生。
Based on data at 111 basic meteorological stations in Henan province from 1971 to 2010, the spatial and temporal characteristics of summer precipitation events were analyzed. The results show that in the last four decades, the amount of summer rainfall in Henan province is increasing. The contribution level of each precipitation events for summer rainfall rate is in the following order: light rain, moderate rain,heavy rain and rainstorm. The contribution of light rain and moderate rain to summer precipitation is decreasing, while the contribution of heavy rain and rainstorm is increasing. In most regions, the amount of precipitation increases while the days of rainstorm decreases, indicating the more frequent of extreme precipitation events. Wavelet analysis shows that the precipitation, precipitation intensity and the number of days of heavy precipitation all have the oscillation period of 2-3 a, and the cycles of precipitation and rain days are consistent. In order to explore the causes of precipitation change, in this paper we conducted an atmospheric circulation field synthetic analysis for the drought and flood years, respectively. Analysis shows that in drought years, the positive anomaly was in most regions of the east of 100°E at 500 h Pa level,and most part of Henan province were located in the descending-motion zone. Therefore, water vapor is difficult to transport to Henan province. On the contrary, the negative anomaly and frequent short-wave activity were found in most regions in the east of 110°E during flood years. The region of the west of 110°E during flood years was controlled by the high pressure ridges, and the southerly wind in lower level carried the warm moist flow from the Bay of Bengal to Henan. Therefore, the strong convection and sufficient water vapor are beneficial to precipitation.
Based on data at 111 basic meteorological stations in Henan province from 1971 to 2010, the spatial and temporal characteristics of summer precipitation events were analyzed. The results show that in the last four decades, the amount of summer rainfall in Henan province is increasing. The contribution level of each precipitation events for summer rainfall rate is in the following order: light rain, moderate rain,heavy rain and rainstorm. The contribution of light rain and moderate rain to summer precipitation is decreasing, while the contribution of heavy rain and rainstorm is increasing. In most regions, the amount of precipitation increases while the days of rainstorm decreases, indicating the more frequent of extreme precipitation events. Wavelet analysis shows that the precipitation, precipitation intensity and the number of days of heavy precipitation all have the oscillation period of 2-3 a, and the cycles of precipitation and rain days are consistent. In order to explore the causes of precipitation change, in this paper we conducted an atmospheric circulation field synthetic analysis for the drought and flood years, respectively. Analysis shows that in drought years, the positive anomaly was in most regions of the east of 100°E at 500 h Pa level,and most part of Henan province were located in the descending-motion zone. Therefore, water vapor is difficult to transport to Henan province. On the contrary, the negative anomaly and frequent short-wave activity were found in most regions in the east of 110°E during flood years. The region of the west of 110°E during flood years was controlled by the high pressure ridges, and the southerly wind in lower level carried the warm moist flow from the Bay of Bengal to Henan. Therefore, the strong convection and sufficient water vapor are beneficial to precipitation.
引文
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[25]翟盘茂,任福民,张强,等.中国降水极值变化趋势检测[J].气象学报,1999,57(2):208-216
[26]鲍名,黄荣辉.近40 a我国暴雨的年代际变化特征[J].大气科学,2006,30(6):1 057-1 067
[27]卢爱刚.半个世纪以来黄土高原降水的时空变化[J].生态环境报,2009,18(3):957-959
[28]王颖,施能,顾俊强,等.中国雨日的气候变化[J].大气科学,2006,30(1):162-170
[29]申乐琳,何金海,周秀骥,等.近50年来中国夏季降水及水汽输送特征研究[J].气象学报,2010,68(6):918-931
[30]黄勇,张红,冯妍.近38年安徽省夏季降水日数和强度的分布与变化特征[J].长江流域资源与环境,2012,21(2):157-167
[31]姜彤,施雅风.全球变暖、长江水灾与可能损失[J].地球科学进展.2003,18(2):277-284
[32]焦建丽,康雯瑛.河南省年降水的区域特征分析[J].华北水利水电学院学报,2007,28(4):7-10
[33]李蔼恂,肖辉,周筠珺,等.河南省春季和秋季降水时空变化的特征研究[J].气候与环境研究,2012,17(6):884-896
[2]Alexander LV,Zhang X,Peterson TC,et al.Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation[J].J Geophys Res,2006,111,D05109,doi:10.1029/2005JD006290
[3]Bernstein L,Bosch P,Canziani O,et al.Summary for policymakers[R].Climate Change:Synthesis Report,2007
[4]Simpson J,Adler R F,North G R.A proposed Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission(TRMM)satellite[J].Bull Amer Meteor Soc,1988,69(3):278-295
[5]蔡敏,张智.河套地区大雨以上降水日数的气候变化特征分析[J].暴雨灾害,2014,33(4):401-406
[6]柳春,王东勇,郑淋淋.近30a安徽省汛期降水日变化特征分析[J].暴雨灾害,2017,36(1):53-59
[7]王国荣,王令.北京地区夏季短时强降水时空分布特征[J].暴雨灾害,2013,32(3):276-279
[8]陈文海,柳艳香,马柱国.中国1951-1997年气候变化趋势的季节特征[J].高原气象,2002,21(3):251-257
[9]孙凤华,杨素英,任国玉,等.东北地区降水日数、强度和持续时间的年代际变化[J].应用气象学报,2007,18(5):610-617
[10]Chen L J,Chen D L,Wang H J,et al.Regionalization of Precipitation Regimes in China[J].Atmos Ocean Sci Lett,2009,2(5):301-307
[11]秦爱民,钱维宏.近41年中国不同季节降水气候分区及趋势[J].高原气象,2006,25(3):495-502
[12]钟海玲,李栋梁,陈晓光,等.近40 a来河套及其邻近地区降水变化趋势的初步研究[J].高原气象,2006,25(5):900-905
[13]陈冬冬,戴永久.近五十年我国西北地区降水强度变化特征[J].大气科学,2009,33(5):923-935
[14]魏凤英,张婷.淮河流域夏季降水的振荡特征及其气候背景的联系[J].中国科学(D辑),2009,39(10):1 360-1 374
[15]吕俊梅,祝从文,琚建华,等.近百年中国东部夏季降水年代际变化特征及其原因[J].大气科学,2014,38(4):782-794
[16]刘扬,刘屹岷.我国西南地区秋季降水年际变化的空间差异及其成因[J].大气科学,2016,40(6):1 215-1 226
[17]白松竹,李春芳,王磊.近45年5—9月阿勒泰地区强降水气候变化趋势与突变特征[J].暴雨灾害,2009,28(1):84-87
[18]蔡敏,张智.河套地区大雨以上降水日数的气候变化特征分析[J].暴雨灾害,2014,33(4):401-406
[19]吴贤云,叶成志,王琪.两湖流域雨季降水气候特征分析[J].暴雨灾害,2016,35(6):497-503.
[20]Houghton J T,Ding Y,Griggs D J,et al.Climate Change:Scientif-ic Basis,IPCC TAR Working Group 1[R].Cambridge:The Press Syndicate of Cambridge University,2001
[21]Goswami B N,Venugopal V,Sengupta D,et al.Increasing trend of extreme rain events over India in a warming environment[J].Science,2006,314(5804):1 442-1 445
[22]Alexander L V,Zhang X,P eterson T C,et al.Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,2006,111(D5),doi:10.1029/2005JD006290.
[23]Parry M L,Canziani O F,Palutikof J P,et al.Climate Change 2007:Impacts,Adaptation and Vulnerability Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change[M].Cambridge,U K:Cambridge University Press,2007
[24]施雅风.全球变暖影响下中国自然灾害的发展趋势[J].自然灾害学报,1996,5(2):102-116
[25]翟盘茂,任福民,张强,等.中国降水极值变化趋势检测[J].气象学报,1999,57(2):208-216
[26]鲍名,黄荣辉.近40 a我国暴雨的年代际变化特征[J].大气科学,2006,30(6):1 057-1 067
[27]卢爱刚.半个世纪以来黄土高原降水的时空变化[J].生态环境报,2009,18(3):957-959
[28]王颖,施能,顾俊强,等.中国雨日的气候变化[J].大气科学,2006,30(1):162-170
[29]申乐琳,何金海,周秀骥,等.近50年来中国夏季降水及水汽输送特征研究[J].气象学报,2010,68(6):918-931
[30]黄勇,张红,冯妍.近38年安徽省夏季降水日数和强度的分布与变化特征[J].长江流域资源与环境,2012,21(2):157-167
[31]姜彤,施雅风.全球变暖、长江水灾与可能损失[J].地球科学进展.2003,18(2):277-284
[32]焦建丽,康雯瑛.河南省年降水的区域特征分析[J].华北水利水电学院学报,2007,28(4):7-10
[33]李蔼恂,肖辉,周筠珺,等.河南省春季和秋季降水时空变化的特征研究[J].气候与环境研究,2012,17(6):884-896