近30年来云南省不同等级降水时空变化特征分析
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摘要
利用1987—2016年云南省29个气象站点逐日降水资料,将云南省划分为6个流域,运用线性趋势和小波分析法,分析了云南省不同流域不同等级降水日数和强度的时空变化特征。结果表明:(1)云南省微量降水、小雨、中雨和大雨降水日数和强度整体呈减小趋势,暴雨呈增加趋势,其中微量降水日数和强度、小雨降水日数呈极显著减小趋势;(2)各等级降水强度平均贡献率呈现出中雨>大雨>小雨>暴雨>微量降水;(3)各等级降水强度普遍存在22 a和29 a的长周期变化特征;(4)微量降水日数和强度呈现出东北多西南少的分布特征,小雨、中雨、大雨和暴雨降水日数和强度呈现出西南多东北少的分布特征,微量降水日数和强度减少幅度呈现出由东南向西北递增的趋势,小雨降水日数和强度减小幅度较大区域主要集中在中西部,减小幅度较小区域主要集中在长江流域中部和澜沧江流域南部,中雨降水日数和强度减小幅度呈现出由中部向东北和西南递减的趋势,大雨降水日数和强度减小幅度较大区域主要集中在西北和东南部,减小幅度较小的区域主要集中在中南部,暴雨降水日数和强度上升幅度较大区域均集中在西南和东部。研究结果可为区域农业生产和农业用水提供基础性参考。
Based on the daily precipitation data of 29 meteorological stations from 1987 to 2016 in Yunnan Province,the Yunnan province is divided into 6 basins,the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of different grade precipitation days and intensity in different basins of Yunnan Province are analyzed by the linear regression and Morlet wavelet analysis method.The results show that:(1)Trace rain,light-rain,moderate rain and heavy rain days and intensity show a decreasing trend,and torrential rain days and intensity showan increasing trend,and trace rain days and intensity,light-rain days showed a highly significant decreasing trend;(2)The average contribution rate of precipitation at different grades is in the order of moderate rain > heavy rain > light-rain > torrential rain >trace rain;(3)The different grades precipitation intensity universal show periodic variations on 22,28 and 29 years;(4)Light-rain,moderate-rain,heavy-rain and torrential-rain precipitation days and intensity at all levels show a gradual increasingtrend from the northeast to the southwest,while trace-rain days and intensity show an opposite pattern.Trace-rain days and intensity decreasing trend is more and more obvious from southeast to northwest of Yunnan Province.The obvious decreasing of days and intensity of light rain is mainly concentrated in the central and west.The region of smaller decreasing of days and intensity of light rain is mainly concentrated in the central part of Yangtze River Basin and the southern part of the Lancang River Basin.moderate-rain days and intensity decreasing trend is more and more obvious from middle to northeast and southwest.The obvious decreasing of days and intensity of heavy-rain is mainly concentrated in the northwest and southeast.The region of smaller decreasing of days and intensity of heavy-rain is mainly concentrated in the central and south.The obvious increasing of days and intensity of torrential rain is mainly concentrated in the southwest and east.The results can provide a basic reference for regional agricultural production and agricultural water in this region.
Based on the daily precipitation data of 29 meteorological stations from 1987 to 2016 in Yunnan Province,the Yunnan province is divided into 6 basins,the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of different grade precipitation days and intensity in different basins of Yunnan Province are analyzed by the linear regression and Morlet wavelet analysis method.The results show that:(1)Trace rain,light-rain,moderate rain and heavy rain days and intensity show a decreasing trend,and torrential rain days and intensity showan increasing trend,and trace rain days and intensity,light-rain days showed a highly significant decreasing trend;(2)The average contribution rate of precipitation at different grades is in the order of moderate rain > heavy rain > light-rain > torrential rain >trace rain;(3)The different grades precipitation intensity universal show periodic variations on 22,28 and 29 years;(4)Light-rain,moderate-rain,heavy-rain and torrential-rain precipitation days and intensity at all levels show a gradual increasingtrend from the northeast to the southwest,while trace-rain days and intensity show an opposite pattern.Trace-rain days and intensity decreasing trend is more and more obvious from southeast to northwest of Yunnan Province.The obvious decreasing of days and intensity of light rain is mainly concentrated in the central and west.The region of smaller decreasing of days and intensity of light rain is mainly concentrated in the central part of Yangtze River Basin and the southern part of the Lancang River Basin.moderate-rain days and intensity decreasing trend is more and more obvious from middle to northeast and southwest.The obvious decreasing of days and intensity of heavy-rain is mainly concentrated in the northwest and southeast.The region of smaller decreasing of days and intensity of heavy-rain is mainly concentrated in the central and south.The obvious increasing of days and intensity of torrential rain is mainly concentrated in the southwest and east.The results can provide a basic reference for regional agricultural production and agricultural water in this region.
引文
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[15]王冰,边玉明,张秋良,等.近45年内蒙古大兴安岭林区不同等级降水变化特征[J].生态学杂志,2017,11(36),3235-3242.
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[17]刘丽娜,刘卫林,查思慧.抚河临水流域降雨量变化特征及趋势分析[J].人民珠江,2017,38(10):27-32.
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[19]王颖,施能,顾俊强,等.中国雨日的气候变化[J].大气科学,2006,30(1):162-170.
[20]郭媛媛,董春卿.太原地区近30年雨日雨量的气候变化趋势分析[C]//第26届中国气象学会年会气候变化分会场论文集,2009.
[2]MA L,ZHANG T,FRAUENFELD OW,et al.Evaluation of precipitation from the ERA-40,NCEP-1,and NCEP-2 Reanalyses and CMAP-1,CMAP-2,and GPCP-2 with ground-based measurements in China[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,2009,114(D9):105.
[3]王大钧,陈列,丁裕国.近40年来中国降水量、雨日变化趋势及与全球温度变化的关系[J].热带气象学报,2006,22(3):283-289.
[4]王颖,封国林,施能,等.江苏省雨日及降水量的气候变化研究[J].气象科学,2007,27(3):287-293.
[5]陈冬冬,戴永久.近五十年我国西北地区降水强度变化特征[J].大气科学,2009,33(5):923-935.
[6]杨霞,赵逸舟,王莹,等.近30年新疆降水量及雨日的变化特征分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2011,25(8):82-87.
[7]陈勇,范昱,钟金莲.近60年长沙雨日及降水量的气候变化研究[J].安徽农业科学,2014,40(12):7265-7268.
[8]陈操操,谢高地,甄霖.泾河流域降雨量变化特征分析[J].资源科学,2007,29(2):172-177.
[9]秦剑,琚建华,解明恩.低纬高原天气气候[M].北京:气象出版社,1997.
[10]曹言,王杰,黄英,等.云南省气候干湿状况时空变化特征研究[J].水电能源科学,2017,35(8):6-9.
[11]陶云,张万诚,段长春,等.云南2009—2012年4年连旱的气候成因研究[J].云南大学学报(自然科学版),2014,36(6):866-874.
[12]符传博,吴涧,丹利.近50年云南省雨日及降水量的气候变化[J].高原气象,2011,30(4):1027-1033.
[13]王理萍,王树仿,张刘东,等.1960—2013年云南省降水时空变化特征分析[J].水电能源科学,2016,34(12):20-24.
[14]白静漪,管兆勇.华东地区夏季不同等级降水变化特征分析[J].气象科学,2014,34(4):365-372.
[15]王冰,边玉明,张秋良,等.近45年内蒙古大兴安岭林区不同等级降水变化特征[J].生态学杂志,2017,11(36),3235-3242.
[16]曹言,王杰,张雷,等.滇中地区极端降水事件的时空变化特征分析[J].人民长江,2017,48(21):50-55.
[17]刘丽娜,刘卫林,查思慧.抚河临水流域降雨量变化特征及趋势分析[J].人民珠江,2017,38(10):27-32.
[18]彭贵芬,刘盈曦.云南年降水多周期叠加与连续特大气象干旱关系及趋势预估研究[J].云南大学学报(自然科学版),2014,36(4):530-537.
[19]王颖,施能,顾俊强,等.中国雨日的气候变化[J].大气科学,2006,30(1):162-170.
[20]郭媛媛,董春卿.太原地区近30年雨日雨量的气候变化趋势分析[C]//第26届中国气象学会年会气候变化分会场论文集,2009.