叶尔羌河流域气候变化特征及趋势分析
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摘要
利用叶尔羌河流域五个气象台站长时序逐日气温和降水量数据,运用Mann-Kendall趋势检验和突变检验方法,分析近50多年来叶尔羌河流域气候要素变化特征,利用R/S分析法预测该区域未来气候变化趋势。结果表明:1)叶尔羌河流域属极端干旱区,近50年来降水量呈增加趋势,塔什库尔干、泽普和巴楚降水增加显著,有明显突变点;2)流域气温上升速率范围为0.239-0.375℃/10a,气温的上升均为突变升温,突变时间为20世纪90年代中期,塔什库尔干高海拔山区自2010年后气温增长较平原区迅速;3)通过R/S分析表明,叶尔羌河流域未来气候变化仍然与过去50年来的变化趋势一致,以暖湿趋势为主。
Long time series of daily air temperature and precipitation data,that were recorded at five meteorological observation stations in the Yeerqiang river basin,were employed to analyze the spatial distributions and changes of these meteorological elements in this basin during the past decades.In this research,Mann-Kendall method was used to determine trends in climate data and to detect abrupt changes within the trend and seasonal components,respectively,and R/S method was used to analyze the future trend of climate change.The result shows that the climate of the Yeerqiang River basin was arid; the annual precipitation was increasing in last 50 years,but its trend was not obvious and the abrupt change point did not appear.However,air temperature in this region have showed unprecedented growth rate,and the annual mean temperature increased at a rate of 0.23℃/10 a,and the warming trend hade obvious mutational point,the years was concentrate on the end of the 1980 s to 1990 s.The R/S analysis shows that future climate trend is in accordance with the past 50 years,a warming and wetting evolvement trend is the most likely phenomenon.
Long time series of daily air temperature and precipitation data,that were recorded at five meteorological observation stations in the Yeerqiang river basin,were employed to analyze the spatial distributions and changes of these meteorological elements in this basin during the past decades.In this research,Mann-Kendall method was used to determine trends in climate data and to detect abrupt changes within the trend and seasonal components,respectively,and R/S method was used to analyze the future trend of climate change.The result shows that the climate of the Yeerqiang River basin was arid; the annual precipitation was increasing in last 50 years,but its trend was not obvious and the abrupt change point did not appear.However,air temperature in this region have showed unprecedented growth rate,and the annual mean temperature increased at a rate of 0.23℃/10 a,and the warming trend hade obvious mutational point,the years was concentrate on the end of the 1980 s to 1990 s.The R/S analysis shows that future climate trend is in accordance with the past 50 years,a warming and wetting evolvement trend is the most likely phenomenon.
引文
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[3]Ren G,Ding Y,Zhao Z,et al.Recent progress in studies of climate change in China[J].Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,2012,29(5):958-977.
[4]徐利岗,周宏飞,杜历,等.1951-2008年中国西北干旱区降水时空变化及其趋势[J].中国沙漠,2015,35(3):724-734.
[5]Li Q,Chen Y,Shen Y,et al.Spatial and temporal tends of climate change in Xinjiang,China[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences,2011,21(6):1007-1018.
[6]李秀花,师庆东,郭娟,等.中国西北干旱区1981-2001年NDVI对气候变化的响应分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2009,23(2):12-16.
[7]丁金梅,延军平.近50年陕甘宁地区气候变化特征分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2007,21(6):124-129.
[8]赵丽,杨青,韩雪云,等.1961-2009年新疆极端降水事件时空差异特征[J].中国沙漠,2014,34(2):550-557.
[9]王新萍,杨青.塔克拉玛干沙漠周边地区极端弱降水的时空变化特征[J].中国沙漠,2014,34(5):1376-1385.
[10]陈春艳,赵克明,阿不力米提江,等.暖湿背景下新疆逐时降水变化特征研究[J].干旱区地理,2015,38(4):692-702.
[11]莎车县地方志编纂委员会编.莎车县志[Z].乌鲁木齐:新疆人民出版社,1996:110-111.
[12]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].北京:气象出版社,2007:47-73.
[13]张盛霖,邓高燕,黄勇奇.Mann-Kendall检验法在Excel中的实现与应用[EB/OL].北京:中国科技论文在线,2014.
[14]马雪宁,张明军,黄小燕,等.黄河上游流域近49a气候变化特征和未来变化趋势分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2012,26(6):17-23.
[15]赵爱芳,张明军,孙美平,等.1960-2010年中国西南地区0℃层高度变化特征[J].地理学报,2013,68(7)994-1006.
[16]丁一汇,王会军.近百年中国气候变化科学问题的新认识[J].科学通报,2016,61(10):1029-1041.
[17]白爱娟,刘晓东.从气候标准的改变分析西北地区的气候变化[J].干旱区研究,2005,22(4):458-464.
[18]祁威,张镱锂,高俊刚,等.1971-2009年珠穆朗玛峰地区尼泊尔境内气候变化[J].地理学报,2013,68(1):82-94.