贵州高原1960-2016年降水变化特征及重心转移分析
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摘要
利用贵州高原34个气象站1960-2016年共57 a的降水资料,基于协同克里金法、Mann-Kendall趋势检验法、气候倾向率、重心模型等方法分析了贵州高原降水在不同时间尺度下的时空分布规律以及降水重心的转移趋势。结果表明:(1)贵州高原多年平均降水量呈现南多北少特征。在南部与东部存在3个多雨中心,分别位于西南暖湿气流的北上通道(兴义-安顺一带)、苗岭山脉的迎风坡(都匀-独山一带)以及武陵山脉的迎风坡(铜仁-松桃一带);少雨区位于乌蒙山脉背风坡的威宁-毕节一带。(2) 1960-2016年降水量年代变化呈现出波动性,2010s的降水变异性最大,1990s的降水变异性最小;年际变化较为剧烈,呈不显著减少的趋势,在空间上呈现中部西部减少、东部增加的趋势;降水季节差异显著,春季、秋季降水显著减少,夏季、冬季的降水不明显增加;各月降水变化情况不同,1、3月降水增加最明显,4月降水下降最明显。(3)降水重心呈西南-东北向分布,有明显的东移趋势。贵州高原降水量的减少可能与西南季风的减弱有关。研究结果对贵州地区水资源配置及洪涝灾害预防具有重要意义。
Based on the precipitation data of 34 meteorological stations in Guizhou Plateau from 1960 to 2016,the study analyzed the spatial-temporal distribution of precipitation and its barycenter shift in Guizhou Plateau at different time scales using the Co-Kriging method, Mann-Kendall trend test method, the climate tendency rate and barycenter model. The results indicate that:(1) The average annual precipitation over the Guizhou Plateau was characterized by decreasing from the south and the east to the northwest.There were three rainy centers in the south and east of Guizhou Plateau, respectively located in the northward transport path of the southwest warm and humid airflow(Xingyi-Anshun area), the windward slope of the Miaoling Mountains(Duyun-Dushan area) and the windward slope of the Wuling Mountains(Tongren-Songtao area); And the less rainy area was located in Weining and Bijie, where is the leeward slope of the Wumeng Mountains.(2) The chronological changes of precipitation from 1960 to 2016 presented volatility, the precipitation variability of 2010 s was the largest, and the precipitation variability of 1990 s was the smallest; the interannual variation was more dramatic,showing a not-significant decrease trend, which presented a spatial reduction in the central and western regions and increase in eastern regions. The differences in seasonal precipitation was obviously, precipitation decreased significantly in spring and autumn, and did not increase significantly in summer and winter.The change of precipitation in each month was different. The increase in precipitation was most significant in January and March, and the decline in precipitation in April was the most significant.(3) The precipitation barycenter was distributed in the southwest-northeast direction, and there had been a clear eastward shift in the past 57 years.The decrease of precipitation in Guizhou Plateau had the possibility of being associated with the weakening of the Southwest Monsoon. The above results are of great significance to the allocation of water resources and the prevention of flood disasters in Guizhou.
Based on the precipitation data of 34 meteorological stations in Guizhou Plateau from 1960 to 2016,the study analyzed the spatial-temporal distribution of precipitation and its barycenter shift in Guizhou Plateau at different time scales using the Co-Kriging method, Mann-Kendall trend test method, the climate tendency rate and barycenter model. The results indicate that:(1) The average annual precipitation over the Guizhou Plateau was characterized by decreasing from the south and the east to the northwest.There were three rainy centers in the south and east of Guizhou Plateau, respectively located in the northward transport path of the southwest warm and humid airflow(Xingyi-Anshun area), the windward slope of the Miaoling Mountains(Duyun-Dushan area) and the windward slope of the Wuling Mountains(Tongren-Songtao area); And the less rainy area was located in Weining and Bijie, where is the leeward slope of the Wumeng Mountains.(2) The chronological changes of precipitation from 1960 to 2016 presented volatility, the precipitation variability of 2010 s was the largest, and the precipitation variability of 1990 s was the smallest; the interannual variation was more dramatic,showing a not-significant decrease trend, which presented a spatial reduction in the central and western regions and increase in eastern regions. The differences in seasonal precipitation was obviously, precipitation decreased significantly in spring and autumn, and did not increase significantly in summer and winter.The change of precipitation in each month was different. The increase in precipitation was most significant in January and March, and the decline in precipitation in April was the most significant.(3) The precipitation barycenter was distributed in the southwest-northeast direction, and there had been a clear eastward shift in the past 57 years.The decrease of precipitation in Guizhou Plateau had the possibility of being associated with the weakening of the Southwest Monsoon. The above results are of great significance to the allocation of water resources and the prevention of flood disasters in Guizhou.
引文
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[5]贺晋云,张明军,王鹏,等.近50年西南地区极端干旱气候变化特征[J].地理学报,2011,66(9):1179-1190.[He J Y,Zhang M J,Wang P,et al.Climate characteristics of the extreme drought events in southwest China during recent 50 Years[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2011,66(9):1179-1190.]
[6]赵恕.季风与贵州的雨季[J].气象学报,1965(1):96-106.[Zhao S.Monsoons and rainy season in Kweichow[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,1965,35(1):96-106.]
[7]吴端耀,罗娅,王青,等.2001-2014年贵州省林草植被覆盖度时空变化及其与气温降水变化的关系[J].贵州师范大学学报(自然科学版),2017,35(1):1-7.[Wu D Y,Luo Y,Wang Q,et al.Spatio-temporal variation of vegetation coverage in forest and grassland and its relationship with temperature and precipitation changes in Guizhou Province during 2001-2014[J].Journal of Guizhou Normal University(Natural Sciences),2017,35(1):1-7.]
[8]秦剑,据建华,解明恩,等.低纬高原天气气候[M].北京:气象出版社,1997:38-50.[Qin J.Ju J H.Xie M E.et.al.Weather&climate over low latitude plateau[M].Beijing China Meteorological Press,1997:38-50.]
[9]伍红雨,王谦谦.近49年贵州降水异常的气候特征分析[J].高原气象,2003,22(1):65-70.[Wu H Y,Wang Q QClimate characteristics analysis of Guizhou precipitation anomaly in recent 49 years[J].Plateau Meteorology,200322(1):65-70.]
[10]严小冬,金建德,雷云.近50年贵州降水时空分布分析[J]贵州气象,2004,28(s1):3-7.[Yan X D,Jin J D,Lei YSpatial and temporal distribution of precipitation in Guizhou in recent50years[J].Journal of Guizhou Meteorology,2004,28(s1):3-7]
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[12]张勇荣,马士彬,闫利会.贵州省近55年降水事件变化特征[J].长江科学院院报,2017,34(1):40-44.[Zhang Y RMa S B,Yan L H,et al.Variation characteristics of precipitation events in Guizhou Province in recent 55 years[J]Journal of Yangtze River Scientific Research Institute2017,34(1):40-44.]
[13]高志强,刘纪远.1980-2000年中国LUCC对气候变化的响应[J].地理学报,2006,61(8):865-872.[Gao Z Q,Liu J YThe LUCC responses to climatic changes in China from1980 to 2000[J],Acta Geographica Sinica,2006,61(8)865-872.]
[14]徐建华,岳文泽.近20年来中国人口重心与经济重心的演变及其对比分析[J].地理科学,2001,21(5):385-389[Xu J H,Yue W Y.Evolvement and comparative analysis of the population center gravity and the economy gravity center in recent twenty years in China[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2001,21(5):385-389.]
[15]刘斌涛,陶和平,宋春风,等.基于重心模型的西南山区降水侵蚀力年内变化分析[J].农业工程学报,2012,28(21)113-120.[Liu B T,Tao H P,Song C F,et al.Study on annual variation of rainfall erosivity in southwest China using gravity center model[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering(Transactions of the CSAE),2012,28(21):113-120.]
[16]陈素景,李丽娟,李九一,等.近55年来澜沧江流域降水时空变化特征分析[J].地球信息科学学报,2017,19(3):365-373.[Chen S J,Li L J,Li J Y,et al.Analysis of the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of precipitation in the Lancang River Basin over thepast 55 years[J].Journal of Geo-information Science,2017,19(3):365-373.]
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[18]黄蓉,胡泽勇,关婷,等.藏北高原气温资料插补及其变化的初步分析[J].高原气象,2014,33(3):637-646.[Huang R,Hu Z Y,Guan T,et al.Interpolation of temperature data in Northern Qinghai-Xizang Plateau and preliminary analysis on its recent variation[J].Plateau Meteorology,2014,33(3):637-646.]
[19]Jarvis A,Reuter H I,Nelson A,et al.Hole-filled seamless SRTM data V4,International Centre for Tropical Agriculture(CIAT)[EB/OL].http://srtm.csi.cgiar.org/,2008-08-19.
[20]汤国安,杨昕.ArcGIS地理信息系统空间分析实验教程[M].北京:科学出版社,2012:448-469.[Tang G A,Yang X.ArcGIS:Spatical analysis experiment course of geographical information system[M].Beijing:Science Press,2012:448-469.]
[21]Goovaerts P.Geostatistical approaches for incorporating elevation into the spatial interpolation of rainfall[J].Journal of Hydrology,2000,228(1-2):113-129.
[22]孙然好,刘清丽,陈利顶.基于地统计学方法的降水空间插值研究[J].水文,2010,30(1):14-17.[Sun R H,Liu Q L,Chen L D.Study on precipitation interpolation based on the geostatistical analyst method[J].Journal of China Hydrology,2010,30(1):14-17.]
[23]刘爱利,王培法,丁园圆.地统计学概论[M].北京:科学出版社,2012.[Liu A L,Wang P F,Ding Y Y.Introduction to Geost atistics[M].Beijing:Science Press,2012.]
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