基于“平均值概念”的“残差示踪法”——黄土高原降水重建的应用（英文）
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摘要
本文对定量重建黄土高原降水的传统方法进行了回顾分析,提出了利用新发展的"残差示踪法"定量重建黄土高原古降水变化的两种新方法。一种是利用黄土磁化率和粉尘通量指标的关系进行降水重建的磁化率方法(SUS-approach),另一种是利用黄土~(10)Be浓度与~(10)Be产率和粉尘通量指标的关系进行降水重建的~(10)Be方法(~(10)Be-approach)。上述两种方法定量重建的洛川地区13万年以来降水变化曲线高度一致,但与前人利用现代观测数据建立的气候回归方程等传统方法重建的降水记录具有明显的差异。本文所建立的降水曲线具有明显的细节特征,揭示了粉尘稀释作用对降水指标的影响,显示了该方法的优势。文章同时指出,"残差示踪法"的数学涵义是基于"平均值概念"(MVC),并对此从统计学角度进行了论证。最后,就本文所提出的运用线性回归后的残差进行示踪的新方法与传统的示踪方法之差异作了对比分析。
The traditional trace methods for paleoprecipitation reconstruction over Chinese Loess Plateau are first analyzed. Then, two practical applications of the newly developed "Residual Trace Approach" to quantitatively reconstruct the paleoprecipitation over the Chinese Loess Plateau are described. One is the "SUS-approach" that uses paired measurements of magnetic susceptibility and dust flux in loess-paleosol sediments as proxies, the other is the "~(10)Be-approach" that uses both atmospheric ~(10)Be production rate and loess dust flux as proxies. The reconstructed precipitation curves of the past 130 ka over Luochuan loess plateau site by the two approaches are highly correlated. However, they are different to some extent from the other precipitation curves calculated by the individual climofunctions of the previous studies using traditional trace methods, and the detailed variations evident in the new approach offer an advantage over the traditional methods in revealing the dust dilution effect on the reconstructed precipitation. Furthermore, it is pointed out that the mathematical connotation of the "Residual Trace Approach" is equivalent to the "Mean Value Concept(MVC)" which is further explained from a statistical point of view. Finally, the difference of the "Residual Trace Approach" from the traditional trace method is compared.
The traditional trace methods for paleoprecipitation reconstruction over Chinese Loess Plateau are first analyzed. Then, two practical applications of the newly developed "Residual Trace Approach" to quantitatively reconstruct the paleoprecipitation over the Chinese Loess Plateau are described. One is the "SUS-approach" that uses paired measurements of magnetic susceptibility and dust flux in loess-paleosol sediments as proxies, the other is the "~(10)Be-approach" that uses both atmospheric ~(10)Be production rate and loess dust flux as proxies. The reconstructed precipitation curves of the past 130 ka over Luochuan loess plateau site by the two approaches are highly correlated. However, they are different to some extent from the other precipitation curves calculated by the individual climofunctions of the previous studies using traditional trace methods, and the detailed variations evident in the new approach offer an advantage over the traditional methods in revealing the dust dilution effect on the reconstructed precipitation. Furthermore, it is pointed out that the mathematical connotation of the "Residual Trace Approach" is equivalent to the "Mean Value Concept(MVC)" which is further explained from a statistical point of view. Finally, the difference of the "Residual Trace Approach" from the traditional trace method is compared.
引文
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An Z S,Sun D H.1995.Discussion on the monsoon variation over the Loess Plateau in the Last Glacial Cycle[M].Beijing:Science Press.
Beer J,Shen C D,Heller F,et al.1993.10Be and magnetic susceptibility in Chinese Loess[J].Geophysical Research Letters,20:57-60.
Caillet S,Arpagaus P,Monna F,et al.2001.Factors controlling7Be and 210Pb atmospheric deposition as revealed by sampling individual rain events in the region of Geneva,Switzerland[J].Journal of Environmental Radioactivity,53:241-256.
Christl M,Lippold J,Steinhilber F,et al.2010.Reconstruction of global 10Be production over the past 250 ka from highly accumulating Atlantic drift sediments[J].Quaternary Science Review,29:2663-2672.
Evans M E,Heller F.2001.Magnetism of loess/palaeosol sequences:recent developments[J].Earth-Science Reviews,54:129-144.
Guyodo Y,Valet J P.1999.Global changes in intensity of the Earth’s magnetic fi eld during the past 800 kyr[J].Nature,399:249-252.
Han J M,Lu H Y,Wu N Q,et al.1996.The magnetic susceptibility of modern soils in China and its use for paleoclimate reconstruction[J].Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica,40:262-275.
Heller F,Shen C D,Beer J,et al.1993.Quantitative estimates of pedogenic ferromagnetic mineral formation in Chinese loess and palaeoclimatic implications[J].Earth and Planetary Science Letters,114:385-390.
Ishikawa Y,Murakami H,Sekine T,et al.1995.Precipitation scavenging studies of radionuclides in air using cosmogenic7Be[J].Journal of Environmental Radioactivity,26:19-36.
Kukla G,Heller F,Liu X M,et al.1988.Pleistocene climates in China dated by magnetic susceptibility[J].Geology,16:811-814.
Maher B A,Thompson R,Zhou L P,et al.1994.Spatial and temporal reconstructions of changes in the Asian palaeomonsoon:A new mineral magnetic approach[J].Earth and Planetary Science Letters,125:461-471.
Porter S C,Hallet B,Wu X H,et al.2001.Dependence of nearsurface magnetic susceptibility on dust accumulation rate and precipitation on the Chinese Loess Plateau[J].Quaternary Research,55:271-283.
Shen C D,Beer J,Heller F,et al.2000.10Be-susceptibility model and quantitative estimates of pedogenic ferromagnetic material fl ux in Chinese loess[J].Nuclear Instruments and Methods in Physics Research Section B:Beam Interactions with Materials and Atoms,172:551-554.
Song S H.2006.Reconstruction of climatic history based on coral in South China Sea and the related data analysis method[D].Beijing:Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences.
Wallbrink P J,Murray A S.1994.Fallout of 7Be in South Eastern Australia[J].Journal of Environmental Radioactivity,25:213-228.
Wang Y J,Cheng H,Edwards R L,et al.2001.A high-resolution absolute-dated Late Pleistocene monsoon record from Hulu Cave,China[J].Science,294:2345-2349.
Wang Y J,Cheng H,Edwards R L,et al.2008.Millennial-and orbital-scale changes in the East Asian monsoon over the past 224,000 years[J].Nature,451:1090-1093.
Zhou W J,Priller A,Beck W,et al.2007a.Disentangling geomagnetic and precipitation signals in an 80-kyr Chinese loess record of 10Be[J].Radiocarbon,49:139-160.
Zhou W J,Chen M B,Xian F,et al.2007b.The mean value concept in mono-linear regression of multi-varaibles and its application to trace studies in geosciences[J].Science in China Series D:Earth Sciences,50:1828-1834.
Zhou W J,Xian F,Beck W,et al.2010a.Reconstruction of130-kyr relative geomagnetic intensities from 10Be in two Chinese loess sections[J].Radiocarbon,52:129-147.
Zhou W J,Xian F,Du Y J,et al.2014a.The last 130 ka precipitation reconstruction from Chinese loess 10Be[J].Journal of Geophysical Research:Solid Earth,119:191-197.
Zhou W J,Beck W,Kong X H,et al.2014b.Timing of the Brunhes-Matuyama magnetic polarity reversal in Chinese loess using 10Be[J].Geology,42:467-470.
周卫健,孔祥辉,鲜锋,等.2010b.中国黄土10Be重建古地磁场变化史的初步研究[J].地球环境学报,1(1):20-27.[Zhou W J,Kong X H,Xian F,et al.2010b.Preliminary study on the reconstruction of the plaeogeomagnetic intensities by 10Be in Chinese loess[J].Journal of Earth Environment,1(1):20-27.]
An Z S,Sun D H.1995.Discussion on the monsoon variation over the Loess Plateau in the Last Glacial Cycle[M].Beijing:Science Press.
Beer J,Shen C D,Heller F,et al.1993.10Be and magnetic susceptibility in Chinese Loess[J].Geophysical Research Letters,20:57-60.
Caillet S,Arpagaus P,Monna F,et al.2001.Factors controlling7Be and 210Pb atmospheric deposition as revealed by sampling individual rain events in the region of Geneva,Switzerland[J].Journal of Environmental Radioactivity,53:241-256.
Christl M,Lippold J,Steinhilber F,et al.2010.Reconstruction of global 10Be production over the past 250 ka from highly accumulating Atlantic drift sediments[J].Quaternary Science Review,29:2663-2672.
Evans M E,Heller F.2001.Magnetism of loess/palaeosol sequences:recent developments[J].Earth-Science Reviews,54:129-144.
Guyodo Y,Valet J P.1999.Global changes in intensity of the Earth’s magnetic fi eld during the past 800 kyr[J].Nature,399:249-252.
Han J M,Lu H Y,Wu N Q,et al.1996.The magnetic susceptibility of modern soils in China and its use for paleoclimate reconstruction[J].Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica,40:262-275.
Heller F,Shen C D,Beer J,et al.1993.Quantitative estimates of pedogenic ferromagnetic mineral formation in Chinese loess and palaeoclimatic implications[J].Earth and Planetary Science Letters,114:385-390.
Ishikawa Y,Murakami H,Sekine T,et al.1995.Precipitation scavenging studies of radionuclides in air using cosmogenic7Be[J].Journal of Environmental Radioactivity,26:19-36.
Kukla G,Heller F,Liu X M,et al.1988.Pleistocene climates in China dated by magnetic susceptibility[J].Geology,16:811-814.
Maher B A,Thompson R,Zhou L P,et al.1994.Spatial and temporal reconstructions of changes in the Asian palaeomonsoon:A new mineral magnetic approach[J].Earth and Planetary Science Letters,125:461-471.
Porter S C,Hallet B,Wu X H,et al.2001.Dependence of nearsurface magnetic susceptibility on dust accumulation rate and precipitation on the Chinese Loess Plateau[J].Quaternary Research,55:271-283.
Shen C D,Beer J,Heller F,et al.2000.10Be-susceptibility model and quantitative estimates of pedogenic ferromagnetic material fl ux in Chinese loess[J].Nuclear Instruments and Methods in Physics Research Section B:Beam Interactions with Materials and Atoms,172:551-554.
Song S H.2006.Reconstruction of climatic history based on coral in South China Sea and the related data analysis method[D].Beijing:Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences.
Wallbrink P J,Murray A S.1994.Fallout of 7Be in South Eastern Australia[J].Journal of Environmental Radioactivity,25:213-228.
Wang Y J,Cheng H,Edwards R L,et al.2001.A high-resolution absolute-dated Late Pleistocene monsoon record from Hulu Cave,China[J].Science,294:2345-2349.
Wang Y J,Cheng H,Edwards R L,et al.2008.Millennial-and orbital-scale changes in the East Asian monsoon over the past 224,000 years[J].Nature,451:1090-1093.
Zhou W J,Priller A,Beck W,et al.2007a.Disentangling geomagnetic and precipitation signals in an 80-kyr Chinese loess record of 10Be[J].Radiocarbon,49:139-160.
Zhou W J,Chen M B,Xian F,et al.2007b.The mean value concept in mono-linear regression of multi-varaibles and its application to trace studies in geosciences[J].Science in China Series D:Earth Sciences,50:1828-1834.
Zhou W J,Xian F,Beck W,et al.2010a.Reconstruction of130-kyr relative geomagnetic intensities from 10Be in two Chinese loess sections[J].Radiocarbon,52:129-147.
Zhou W J,Xian F,Du Y J,et al.2014a.The last 130 ka precipitation reconstruction from Chinese loess 10Be[J].Journal of Geophysical Research:Solid Earth,119:191-197.
Zhou W J,Beck W,Kong X H,et al.2014b.Timing of the Brunhes-Matuyama magnetic polarity reversal in Chinese loess using 10Be[J].Geology,42:467-470.