摘要
以赣南主汛期(4-6月)降水为研究对象,采用1951-2017年气候因子指数与降水数据,运用线性趋势法、Mann-Kendall检验法分析了赣南主汛期降水的趋势特征,认为赣南主汛期降水存在减小的趋势,倾向率约为-17mm/10a,赣南主汛期降水在20世纪80年代末至今下降趋势显著;在赣南主汛期降水与前期气候因子指数、前期降水相关普查的基础上,利用多元逐步回归方法建立了赣南主汛期降水长期趋势预测模型,经检验该模型具有一定的可靠性,提升了防洪减灾工作的主动性.
According to 1951~2017 year climate factor indexes and precipitation data,this paper takes precipitation of the major flood season(April to June)as research subject,use linear trend method and Mann-Kendall test method to analyze precipitation trend in the major flood season of south Jiangxi,we conclude that precipitation in the major flood season of south Jiangxi is decreasing with a tendency rate of 17 mm/10 a in the long run,an evident downtrend has been happening since the end of 1980 s. A census on the relationship between precipitation in the major flood season of south Jiangxi and pre climate factor indexes or pre precipitation has been conducted,then we established a long term trend prediction model for precipitation in the major flood season of south Jiangxi. We have verified that the model is reliable.This model can help us make a good preparation for flood control and disaster alleviation.
引文
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