东北农业区降水年内分配的不均匀性及对区域增暖的响应
|
摘要
水热的合理配置为农业生产提供了有利的气候条件,明确热量和水分的匹配及变异规律对指导农业生产具有重要意义。本文利用东北农业区1961—2014年的逐日降水和气温资料,分析了东北农业区降水年内分配不均匀性的变异规律及其对区域增暖的响应,结果表明:(1)近54年来,该区表现为全区一致性的降水年内分配不均匀性降低、年际变化幅度增大和降水集中期提前的变化趋势;(2)降水年内分配不均匀性降低速率表现为中间大,南、北小的区域间差异;(3)降水年内分配不均匀性对气温具有很强的响应,表现出明显的不同步和区域间差异性,大致表现为在短周期上降水集中度落后气温、而长周期上超前气温的响应特征。气候增暖背景下,降水集中期的提前使得该区雨热同期的气候要素匹配关系保持稳定,但降水年内分配不均匀性的降低及年际间变化幅度的增大可能会增加该区夏季发生干旱的风险。研究结果可为制定科学的农田水管理策略提供参考。
The rational allocation of heat and water provides favorable climatic conditions for agricultural production.It is important to make clear the matching and variation rule of heat and water for guiding agricultural production.Based on the data of daily precipitation and temperature from 1961 to 2014 in Northeast China agricultural zone(NCAZ),the variation law of inner-annual inhomogeneous distribution of precipitation(IIDP)and its response to regional warming in NCAZ were analyzed.The results show that:(1)In 1961-2014,the trends was found and characterized by decreasing IIDP,increasing inter-annual variation of IIDP and being more early precipitation concentration period(PCP)consistently in the whole NCAZ;(2)The decrease rate of IIDP was larger in the middle of NCAZ,contrast to smaller value in southern and northern part of NCAZ;(3)The IIDP depended on air temperature strongly,which showed obvious asynchronism and inter-regional difference with precipitation concentration degree(PCD)being behind air temperature on short period and beyond on long period mainly.In a more warming world,the advance of PCP keeps simultaneous heat and precipitation stable,but the decrease of IIDP and the increase of the inter-annual variation may increase the risk of summer drought in NCAZ.The results can provide a reference for formulating scientific farmland water management strategies.
The rational allocation of heat and water provides favorable climatic conditions for agricultural production.It is important to make clear the matching and variation rule of heat and water for guiding agricultural production.Based on the data of daily precipitation and temperature from 1961 to 2014 in Northeast China agricultural zone(NCAZ),the variation law of inner-annual inhomogeneous distribution of precipitation(IIDP)and its response to regional warming in NCAZ were analyzed.The results show that:(1)In 1961-2014,the trends was found and characterized by decreasing IIDP,increasing inter-annual variation of IIDP and being more early precipitation concentration period(PCP)consistently in the whole NCAZ;(2)The decrease rate of IIDP was larger in the middle of NCAZ,contrast to smaller value in southern and northern part of NCAZ;(3)The IIDP depended on air temperature strongly,which showed obvious asynchronism and inter-regional difference with precipitation concentration degree(PCD)being behind air temperature on short period and beyond on long period mainly.In a more warming world,the advance of PCP keeps simultaneous heat and precipitation stable,but the decrease of IIDP and the increase of the inter-annual variation may increase the risk of summer drought in NCAZ.The results can provide a reference for formulating scientific farmland water management strategies.
引文
[1]Burton I,Huq S,Lim B,et al.From impacts assessment to adaptation priorities:the shaping of adaptation policy[J].Climate Policy,2002,2(2-3):145-159
[2]Ragab R,Prudhomme C.Climate change and water resources management in arid and semi-arid regions:prospective and challenges for the 21st century[J].Biosystems Engineering,2002,81(1):3-34
[3]Fernanda M S,Maria L F.Climate change and its marginalizing effect on agriculture[J].Ecological Economics,2009,68(3):896-904
[4]Alam M M,Siwar C,Jaafar A H,et al.Agricultural vulnerability and adaptation to climatic changes in Malaysia:review on paddy sector[J].Current World Environment,2013,8(1):1-12
[5]Deng X,Huang J,Rozelle S,et al.Cultivated land conversion and potential agricultural productivity in China[J].Land Use Policy,2006,23:372-384
[6]He J,Liu Y,Yu Y,et al.A counterfactual scenario simulation approach for assessing the impact of farmland preservation policies on urban sprawl and food security in a major grain-producing area of China[J].Applied Geography,2013,37(1):127-138
[7]Shi X L,Wang W,Shi W J.Progress on quantitative assessment of the impacts of climate change and human activities on crop land change[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences,2016,26(3):339-354
[8]Ye L,Xiong W,Li Z,et al.Climate change impact on China food security in 2050[J].Agronomy for Sustainable Development,2013,33(2):363-374
[9]马树庆,王琪,罗新兰.基于分期播种的气候变化对东北地区玉米(Zea mays)生长发育和产量的影响[J].生态学报,2008,28(5):2131-2139
[10]顾西辉,张强,张生.1961-2010年中国农业洪旱灾害时空特征、成因及影响[J].地理科学,2016,36(3):439-447
[11]孙滨峰,赵红,王效科.基于标准化降水蒸发指数(SPEI)的东北干旱时空特征[J].生态环境学报,2015,24(1):22-28
[12]韩晓敏,延军平.气候暖干化背景下东北地区旱涝时空演变特征[J].水土保持通报,2015,35(4):314-318
[13]董秋婷,李茂松,刘江,等.近50年东北地区春玉米干旱的时空演变特征[J].自然灾害学报,2011(4):52-59
[14]卢洪健,莫兴国,孟德娟,等.气候变化背景下东北地区气象干旱的时空演变特征[J].地理科学,2015,35(8):1051-1059
[15]Esfahanian E,Nejadhashemi A P,Abouali M,et al.Development and evaluation of a comprehensive drought index[J].Journal of Environmental Management,2017,185:31-43
[16]杨庆,李明星,郑子彦,等.7种气象干旱指数的中国区域适应性[J].中国科学:地球科学,2017,47(3):337-353
[17]杨晓晨,明博,陶洪斌,等.中国东北春玉米区干旱时空分布特征及其对产量的影响[J].中国生态农业学报,2015,23(6):758-767
[18]初征,郭建平,赵俊芳.东北地区未来气候变化对农业气候资源的影响[J].地理学报,2017,72(7):1248-1260
[19]赵俊芳,郭建平,马玉平,等.气候变化背景下我国农业热量资源的变化趋势及适应对策[J].应用生态学报,2010,21(11):2922-2930
[20]缪启龙,丁园圆,王勇,等.气候变暖对中国热量资源分布的影响分析[J].自然资源学报,2009(5):934-944
[21]张立波,娄伟平.气候变暖对长江中下游地区热量资源分布的影响分析[J].自然资源学报,2013,28(8):1361-1372
[22]孔锋,史培军,方建,等.全球变化背景下极端降水时空格局变化及其影响因素研究进展和展望[J].灾害学,2017,(2):165-174
[23]叶晓燕,陈崇成,罗明.东亚夏季降水与全球海温异常的年代际变化关系[J].地球科学进展,2016,31(9):984-994
[24]Li Q Y,Liu X N,Zhang H Z,et al.Detecting and adjusting temporal inhomogeneity in Chinese mean surface air temperature data[J].Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,2004,21(2):260-268
[25]张运福,胡春丽,赵春雨,等.东北地区降水年内分配的不均匀性[J].自然灾害学报,2009,18(2):089-94
[26]Zhang L J,Qian Y F.Annual distribution features of precipitation in China and their interannual variations[J].Journal of Meteorological Research,2003,17(2):146-163
[27]Xu J.The climate change features in the last 100 years[J].Journal of Capital Normal University,2006,7(4):79-82
[28]龚晓峰,Richman M B.主分量分析在区域性气候分型中应用的统计试验研究[J].大气科学,1992,16(6):649-658
[29]韩荣青,高辉,李维京.旋转经验正交函数分解回归方法在东北夏季气温季节预测和成因诊断中的应用[J].气象学报,2014,72(2):291-305
[30]丁裕国,张耀存,刘吉峰.一种新的气候分型区划方法[J].大气科学,2007,31(1):129-136
[31]North G R,Bell T L,Cahalan R F,et al.Sampling errors in the estimation of empirical orthogonal functions[J].Monthly Weather Review,1982,110(7):699
[32]迟道才,王琦,张旭东,等.基于谐波分析的降水量预测模型研究[J].节水灌溉,2011(10):42-44
[33]陶云,朱天禄.多维时间序列交叉谱分析在降水场诊断中的应用[J].气候与环境研究,2003,8(4):503-509
[34]何永坤,郭建平.1961-2006年东北地区农业气候资源变化特征[J].自然资源学报,2011,26(7):1199-1208
[35]袭祝香,杨雪艳,刘实,等.东北地区夏季干旱风险评估与区划[J].地理科学,2013,33(6):735-740
[36]张淑杰,张玉书,孙龙彧,等.东北地区玉米生育期干旱分布特征及其成因分析[J].中国农业气象,2013,34(3):350-357
[2]Ragab R,Prudhomme C.Climate change and water resources management in arid and semi-arid regions:prospective and challenges for the 21st century[J].Biosystems Engineering,2002,81(1):3-34
[3]Fernanda M S,Maria L F.Climate change and its marginalizing effect on agriculture[J].Ecological Economics,2009,68(3):896-904
[4]Alam M M,Siwar C,Jaafar A H,et al.Agricultural vulnerability and adaptation to climatic changes in Malaysia:review on paddy sector[J].Current World Environment,2013,8(1):1-12
[5]Deng X,Huang J,Rozelle S,et al.Cultivated land conversion and potential agricultural productivity in China[J].Land Use Policy,2006,23:372-384
[6]He J,Liu Y,Yu Y,et al.A counterfactual scenario simulation approach for assessing the impact of farmland preservation policies on urban sprawl and food security in a major grain-producing area of China[J].Applied Geography,2013,37(1):127-138
[7]Shi X L,Wang W,Shi W J.Progress on quantitative assessment of the impacts of climate change and human activities on crop land change[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences,2016,26(3):339-354
[8]Ye L,Xiong W,Li Z,et al.Climate change impact on China food security in 2050[J].Agronomy for Sustainable Development,2013,33(2):363-374
[9]马树庆,王琪,罗新兰.基于分期播种的气候变化对东北地区玉米(Zea mays)生长发育和产量的影响[J].生态学报,2008,28(5):2131-2139
[10]顾西辉,张强,张生.1961-2010年中国农业洪旱灾害时空特征、成因及影响[J].地理科学,2016,36(3):439-447
[11]孙滨峰,赵红,王效科.基于标准化降水蒸发指数(SPEI)的东北干旱时空特征[J].生态环境学报,2015,24(1):22-28
[12]韩晓敏,延军平.气候暖干化背景下东北地区旱涝时空演变特征[J].水土保持通报,2015,35(4):314-318
[13]董秋婷,李茂松,刘江,等.近50年东北地区春玉米干旱的时空演变特征[J].自然灾害学报,2011(4):52-59
[14]卢洪健,莫兴国,孟德娟,等.气候变化背景下东北地区气象干旱的时空演变特征[J].地理科学,2015,35(8):1051-1059
[15]Esfahanian E,Nejadhashemi A P,Abouali M,et al.Development and evaluation of a comprehensive drought index[J].Journal of Environmental Management,2017,185:31-43
[16]杨庆,李明星,郑子彦,等.7种气象干旱指数的中国区域适应性[J].中国科学:地球科学,2017,47(3):337-353
[17]杨晓晨,明博,陶洪斌,等.中国东北春玉米区干旱时空分布特征及其对产量的影响[J].中国生态农业学报,2015,23(6):758-767
[18]初征,郭建平,赵俊芳.东北地区未来气候变化对农业气候资源的影响[J].地理学报,2017,72(7):1248-1260
[19]赵俊芳,郭建平,马玉平,等.气候变化背景下我国农业热量资源的变化趋势及适应对策[J].应用生态学报,2010,21(11):2922-2930
[20]缪启龙,丁园圆,王勇,等.气候变暖对中国热量资源分布的影响分析[J].自然资源学报,2009(5):934-944
[21]张立波,娄伟平.气候变暖对长江中下游地区热量资源分布的影响分析[J].自然资源学报,2013,28(8):1361-1372
[22]孔锋,史培军,方建,等.全球变化背景下极端降水时空格局变化及其影响因素研究进展和展望[J].灾害学,2017,(2):165-174
[23]叶晓燕,陈崇成,罗明.东亚夏季降水与全球海温异常的年代际变化关系[J].地球科学进展,2016,31(9):984-994
[24]Li Q Y,Liu X N,Zhang H Z,et al.Detecting and adjusting temporal inhomogeneity in Chinese mean surface air temperature data[J].Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,2004,21(2):260-268
[25]张运福,胡春丽,赵春雨,等.东北地区降水年内分配的不均匀性[J].自然灾害学报,2009,18(2):089-94
[26]Zhang L J,Qian Y F.Annual distribution features of precipitation in China and their interannual variations[J].Journal of Meteorological Research,2003,17(2):146-163
[27]Xu J.The climate change features in the last 100 years[J].Journal of Capital Normal University,2006,7(4):79-82
[28]龚晓峰,Richman M B.主分量分析在区域性气候分型中应用的统计试验研究[J].大气科学,1992,16(6):649-658
[29]韩荣青,高辉,李维京.旋转经验正交函数分解回归方法在东北夏季气温季节预测和成因诊断中的应用[J].气象学报,2014,72(2):291-305
[30]丁裕国,张耀存,刘吉峰.一种新的气候分型区划方法[J].大气科学,2007,31(1):129-136
[31]North G R,Bell T L,Cahalan R F,et al.Sampling errors in the estimation of empirical orthogonal functions[J].Monthly Weather Review,1982,110(7):699
[32]迟道才,王琦,张旭东,等.基于谐波分析的降水量预测模型研究[J].节水灌溉,2011(10):42-44
[33]陶云,朱天禄.多维时间序列交叉谱分析在降水场诊断中的应用[J].气候与环境研究,2003,8(4):503-509
[34]何永坤,郭建平.1961-2006年东北地区农业气候资源变化特征[J].自然资源学报,2011,26(7):1199-1208
[35]袭祝香,杨雪艳,刘实,等.东北地区夏季干旱风险评估与区划[J].地理科学,2013,33(6):735-740
[36]张淑杰,张玉书,孙龙彧,等.东北地区玉米生育期干旱分布特征及其成因分析[J].中国农业气象,2013,34(3):350-357