基于Meta分析中国水稻产量对施肥的响应特征
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摘要
【目的】定量分析近30年施肥对中国水稻产量的综合效应和影响机制,为水稻种植区域肥料的科学施用提供依据。【方法】以全国水稻土长期监测点为平台,将相应的监测数据按照种植区域、试验时间、种植制度、作物类型、施肥类型、土壤质地、土壤p H、土壤有机质含量、土壤全氮含量、土壤有效磷含量、土壤速效钾含量、土壤缓效钾含量进行分组,以不施肥处理作为对照,利用Meta-analysis方法探究施肥对水稻产量的综合效应及其影响因素。【结果】近10年(2008—2017)以来,无论施肥与否,水稻产量均显著高于1988—1997和1998—2007年对应的水稻产量。与不施肥相比,施肥显著提高水稻产量,其提高幅度平均为80.8%。在西南地区施肥对水稻产量的提高幅度最高(98.5%),显著高于华北地区(70.3%)。不同试验时间下,施肥比不施肥处理在1988—1997年对水稻产量提高的幅度(99.1%)高于1998—2007年(84.2%)和2008-2017年(78.1%)。不同种植制度下,施肥较不施肥处理能显著提高一年三熟水稻产量(92.0%),且提高幅度均高于一年一熟(76.2%)和一年两熟(81.9%)。与不施肥相比,双季稻施肥对水稻产量的提高幅度(85.9%)高于单季稻区(75.9%)和水稻-其他作物(79.5%)。与不施肥相比,有机肥与无机肥配合施用对水稻产量提高幅度(88.3%)高于化肥单施处理(76.6%)。施肥较不施肥处理能显著提高黏质土壤水稻产量(92.0%),提高幅度显著高于砂质土壤(58.0%)和壤质土壤(77.5%)。随着土壤有机质和有效磷含量的增加,施肥较不施肥处理水稻产量提高的幅度呈降低趋势。在较高的土壤p H(>7.5)、较低土壤全氮(<1.5g·kg~(-1))和缓效钾(<150 mg·kg~(-1))情况下,施肥较不施肥处理水稻产量提高的幅度较高。随机森林分析结果表明:施肥对水稻产量提高幅度主要受水稻种植区域、土壤全氮和种植制度的影响。此外,肥料的农学效率与施肥对水稻产量增产幅度呈极显著正相关。【结论】虽然当前施肥对水稻产量增加的趋势在降低,但是适量的肥料投入(尤其是西南地区)是提高和维持水稻高产的重要措施,尤其是有机肥与无机肥配合施用增产效果更加显著。同时,在种植制度的基础上,各水稻种植区域应结合土壤质地、土壤氮素和钾素等方面作为肥料投入的主要依据。
【Objective】A meta study was conducted to investigate the comprehensive effect of fertilization on rice yield in Chinese paddy soils during the past 30 years,and to provide a theoretical basis for the scientific correct application of fertilizers in rice cultivation areas.【Method】Based on the long-term paddy soil monitoring sites from Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs,we conducted meta-analysis to investigate the rice yield response to no fertilization versus fertilization in different agro-climatic regions.【Result】Rice yield in the past 10 years(2008-2017)was significantly higher than the corresponding rice yield in1988-1997 and 1998-2007,regardless of fertilization.The increase of rice yield with fertilization in southwest of China was by98.5%,which was significantly higher than that of in north of China(70.3%).Fertilization increased rice yield by 99.1%,84.2%and78.1%during 1988-1997,1998-2007 and 2008-2017,respectively.For the cropping system,the increase of rice yield under triple cropping system(92.0%)was significantly higher than that under single cropping system(76.2%)and double cropping system(81.9%).Fertilization increased rice yield by 85.9%under double rice cropping system,by 75.9%under single cropping system,and by 79.5%under other cropping system.Compared with no fertilizer,chemical plus organic fertilizer application increased rice yield by 88.3%,which was higher than that of single chemical fertilizer application(76.6%).Fertilization significantly increased rice yield in clay soil by 92.0%,compared with no fertilization,which significantly higher than that in sandy soil(58.0%)and loam soil(77.5%).With the increase of soil organic matter and available phosphorus,the increasing trend of fertilization on rice yield was decreased compared with no fertilization.Under higher soil pH(>7.5)and lower soil total nitrogen(<1.5 g·kg~(-1))and slow available potassium(<150 mg·kg~(-1)),the rice yield increasing was more than that of corresponding the rest of level.Random forest analysis showed that the region,soil total nitrogen and cropping system had greater impact on the response ratio(RR)of rice yield.In addition,the agronomic efficiency of fertilizer was positively correlated with rice yield RR.【Conclusion】Although the trend of increasing rice yield by fertilization was decreasing at present,but combined appropriate chemical plus organic fertilizer,especially in southwest of China,were important measures to improve and maintain high rice yield.Base on the cropping system,combining soil texture,soil nitrogen and potassium content should be the main basis for fertilizer input in different rice cultivation areas.
【Objective】A meta study was conducted to investigate the comprehensive effect of fertilization on rice yield in Chinese paddy soils during the past 30 years,and to provide a theoretical basis for the scientific correct application of fertilizers in rice cultivation areas.【Method】Based on the long-term paddy soil monitoring sites from Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs,we conducted meta-analysis to investigate the rice yield response to no fertilization versus fertilization in different agro-climatic regions.【Result】Rice yield in the past 10 years(2008-2017)was significantly higher than the corresponding rice yield in1988-1997 and 1998-2007,regardless of fertilization.The increase of rice yield with fertilization in southwest of China was by98.5%,which was significantly higher than that of in north of China(70.3%).Fertilization increased rice yield by 99.1%,84.2%and78.1%during 1988-1997,1998-2007 and 2008-2017,respectively.For the cropping system,the increase of rice yield under triple cropping system(92.0%)was significantly higher than that under single cropping system(76.2%)and double cropping system(81.9%).Fertilization increased rice yield by 85.9%under double rice cropping system,by 75.9%under single cropping system,and by 79.5%under other cropping system.Compared with no fertilizer,chemical plus organic fertilizer application increased rice yield by 88.3%,which was higher than that of single chemical fertilizer application(76.6%).Fertilization significantly increased rice yield in clay soil by 92.0%,compared with no fertilization,which significantly higher than that in sandy soil(58.0%)and loam soil(77.5%).With the increase of soil organic matter and available phosphorus,the increasing trend of fertilization on rice yield was decreased compared with no fertilization.Under higher soil pH(>7.5)and lower soil total nitrogen(<1.5 g·kg~(-1))and slow available potassium(<150 mg·kg~(-1)),the rice yield increasing was more than that of corresponding the rest of level.Random forest analysis showed that the region,soil total nitrogen and cropping system had greater impact on the response ratio(RR)of rice yield.In addition,the agronomic efficiency of fertilizer was positively correlated with rice yield RR.【Conclusion】Although the trend of increasing rice yield by fertilization was decreasing at present,but combined appropriate chemical plus organic fertilizer,especially in southwest of China,were important measures to improve and maintain high rice yield.Base on the cropping system,combining soil texture,soil nitrogen and potassium content should be the main basis for fertilizer input in different rice cultivation areas.
引文
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