区划方法在缺资料地区水文模型参数识别的发展与展望
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摘要
缺资料地区水文预测一直是水文领域研究的重点和热点问题之一。目前,国内外学者对于缺资料地区水文预测常规方法是区划方法。通过文献梳理对缺资料地区水文预测的研究进展进行了总结分析,并就区划方法的适用性、存在的问题及不确定性这3个方面进行讨论,最后提出关于未来研究中亟待解决的几个问题以及突破口。
Hydrological forecasting in the absence of data is one of the key and hot issues in the field of hydrology. At present,one of the conventional methods of hydrological forecasting at home and abroad is regionalization method. This paper summarizes the research progress of hydrological forecasting in the absence of information area through combing documents,and discusses the applicability of regionalization method,the existing problems and uncertainties. Finally,it puts forward some problems and breakthroughs that need to be solved urgently in the future research.
Hydrological forecasting in the absence of data is one of the key and hot issues in the field of hydrology. At present,one of the conventional methods of hydrological forecasting at home and abroad is regionalization method. This paper summarizes the research progress of hydrological forecasting in the absence of information area through combing documents,and discusses the applicability of regionalization method,the existing problems and uncertainties. Finally,it puts forward some problems and breakthroughs that need to be solved urgently in the future research.
引文
[1]刘金涛,宋慧卿,王爱花.水文相似概念与理论发展探析[J].水科学进展,2014,(2):288-296.
[2]Sivapalan M,Takeuchi K,Franks S W,et al.IAHS Decade on Predictions in Ungauged Basins(PUB),2003-2012:Shaping an Exciting Future for the Hydrological Sciences[J].Hydrological Sciences Journal,2003,48(6):857-880.
[3]Mc Millan H,Montanari A,Cudennec C,et al.Panta Rhei 2013-2015:global perspectives on hydrology,society and change[J].Hydrological Sciences Journal,2016,61(7):1 174-1 191.
[4]YAO Cheng,LI Zhijia,BAO Hongjun,et al.Application of a developed Grid-Xin'anjiang model to Chinese watersheds for flood forecasting purpose[J].Journal of Hydrologic Engineering 2009,14(9):923-934.
[5]YAO Cheng,LI Zhijia,YU Zhongbo,et al.A priori parameter estimates for a distributed,grid-based Xin'anjiang model using geographically based information[J].Journal of Hydrology,2012,468/469:47-62.
[6]毛能君,夏军,张利平,等.参数区域化在乏资料地区水文预报中应用研究综述[J].中国农村水利水电,2016,(12):88-92.
[7]Sanzana P,Jankowfsky S,Branger F,et al.Computer-assisted mesh generation based on hydrological response units for distributed hydrological modeling[J].Computers&Geosciences,2013,57:32-43.
[8]Shretha S,Bastola S,Babel M S,et al.The Assessment of Spatial and Temporal Transferability of a Physically Baesd Distributed Hydrologic Model Parameters in Different Physiographic Regions of Nepal[J].Journal of Hydrology,2007,347(1-2):153-172.
[9]李红霞,张新华,张永强,等.缺资料流域水文模型参数区域化研究进展[J].水文,2011,(3):13-17.
[10]韩通.API模型在中小河流无资料地区的应用研究[D].南京:河海大学,2016.
[11]李红霞.无径流资料流域的水文预报研究[D].辽宁大连:大连理工大学,2009.
[12]Bloschl G.Rainfall-runoff modeling of ungauged catchments[J].Encyclopedia of Hydrological Sciences(Ed.M.Anderson),2005:1 332 061-1 332 050.
[13]戚晓明,陆桂华,吴志勇,等.水文相似度及其应用[J].水利学报,2007,(3):355-360.
[14]张欣莉,丁晶,王顺久.投影寻踪分类模型评定相似流域[J].水科学进展,2001,(3):356-360.
[15]Savicz K,Wagener T,Sivapalan M,et al.Catchment classification:Empirical analysis of hydrologic similarity based on catchment function in the eastern USA[J].Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2011,15:2 895-2 911.
[16]Kileshye Onema J M,Taigbenu A E,Ndiritu J.Classification and flow prediction in a data-scarce watershed of the equatorial Nile region[J].Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2012,16(5):1 435-1 443.
[17]He Y,Bardossy A,Zehe E.A catchment classification scheme using local variance reduction method[J].Journal of Hydrology,2011,411(1-2):140-154.
[18]靳晓莉,张奇,许崇育.一个概念性水文模型的参数区域化研究:以东江流域为例[J].湖泊科学,2008,(6):723-732.
[19]Vandewiele G L,Elias A.Monthly water balance of ungauged catchments obtained by geographical regionalization[J].Journal of Hydrology,1995,170(1-4):277-291.
[20]Zhang Y,Chiew F H S.Relative merits of different methods for runoff predictions in ungauged catchments[J].Water Resources Research,2009,7(45):4 542-4 548.
[21]钟栗.新安江模型在中小河流无资料地区的应用研究[D].南京:河海大学,2016.
[22]Siriwardena L.Estimation Of SIMHYD Parameter Values For Application In Ungauged Catchments[J].MODSIM05-International Congress on Modelling and Simulation:Advances and Applications for Managem,2005,10(3):2 883-2 889.
[23]Christa K,Thorsten W,Brian M G.Model‐based analysis of the influence of catchment properties on hydrologic partitioning across five mountain headwater subcatchments[J].Water Resources Research,2015,51(6):n/a-n/a.
[24]Wuttichaiktcharoen P,Babel MS.Principal Component and Multiple Regression Analyses for the Estimation of Suspended Sediment Yield in Ungauged Basins of Northern Thailand[J].Water,2014,6(9):2847-2848.
[25]袁迪,宋星原,张艳军,等.基于遥感信息的新安江模型产流计算参数估计[J].水力发电学报,2014,(5):77-85.
[26]何虹,夏达忠,甘郝新.基于MODIS的水文特征指标提取与应用研究[J].水利信息化,2011,(4):4-8.
[27]夏希.基于地理学的流域水文模型参数推求研究[D].南京:河海大学,2008.
[28]Harman C J,Sivapalan M.A similarity framework to assess controls on shallow subsurface flow dynamics[J].Water Resources Research,2009,45.
[29]芮孝芳.利用地形地貌资料确定Nash模型参数的研究[J].水文,1999,(3):6-10.
[30]马天儒.基于下垫面特征的自由水蓄水容量区划研究[D].南京:河海大学,2016.
[31]梁珂,李致家,阚光远.新型汇流计算方法及其在缺资料地区的应用[J].人民黄河,2016,(3):15-17.
[32]伊璇.区划方法在无资料地区水文预报中的应用研究伊璇[J].水文,2014.
[33]Razavi T,Coulibaly P.Streamflow prediction in ungauged basdins review of regionalization methods[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2013,18(8):958-975.
[34]刘苏峡,刘昌明,赵卫民.无测站流域水文预测(PUB)的研究方法[J].地理科学进展,2010,(11):1 333-1 339.
[35]Abdulla F A,Lettenmaier D P.Development of regional parameter estimation equations for a macroscale hydrologic mode[J].Journal of Hydrology,1997,197:230-257.
[36]徐秀丽.区域化方法在贵州省水文模拟中的应用研究[D].南京:河海大学,2016.
[37]Braun L N,Renner C B.Application of a conceptual runoff model in different physiographic regions of Switzerland[J].Hydrological Sciences Journal一Journal Des Sciences Hydrologiques,1992,37(3):217-231.
[38]伍远康,王红英,陶永格,等.浙江省无资料流域洪水预报方法研究[J].水文,2015,(6):24-29.
[39]Merz R,Bloschl G.Regionalisation of catchment model parameters[J].Journal of Hydrology,2004,287(1):95-123.
[40]刘金涛,冯德锃,陈喜,等.应用Péclet数解析山坡结构特征的水文效应[J].水科学进展,2012,(1):1-6.
[41]Berne A,Uijlenhoet R,Troch P A.Similarity analysis of subsurface flow response of hillslopes with complex geometry[J].Water Resources Research,2005,41.
[42]姚成,章玉霞,李致家,等.无资料地区水文模拟及相似性分析[J].河海大学学报(自然科学版),2013,(2):108-113.
[43]Johansson B.The relationship between catchment characteristics and the parameters of a conceptual runoff model:a study in the south of Sweden[C]∥1994,221:475-482.
[44]武震,张世强,丁永建.水文系统模拟不确定性研究进展[J].中国沙漠,2007,(5):890-896.
[45]Zhan C,Song X,Xia J,et al.An efficient integrated approach for global sensitivity analysis of hydrological model parameters[J].Environmental Modeling&Software,2013,41:39-52.
[2]Sivapalan M,Takeuchi K,Franks S W,et al.IAHS Decade on Predictions in Ungauged Basins(PUB),2003-2012:Shaping an Exciting Future for the Hydrological Sciences[J].Hydrological Sciences Journal,2003,48(6):857-880.
[3]Mc Millan H,Montanari A,Cudennec C,et al.Panta Rhei 2013-2015:global perspectives on hydrology,society and change[J].Hydrological Sciences Journal,2016,61(7):1 174-1 191.
[4]YAO Cheng,LI Zhijia,BAO Hongjun,et al.Application of a developed Grid-Xin'anjiang model to Chinese watersheds for flood forecasting purpose[J].Journal of Hydrologic Engineering 2009,14(9):923-934.
[5]YAO Cheng,LI Zhijia,YU Zhongbo,et al.A priori parameter estimates for a distributed,grid-based Xin'anjiang model using geographically based information[J].Journal of Hydrology,2012,468/469:47-62.
[6]毛能君,夏军,张利平,等.参数区域化在乏资料地区水文预报中应用研究综述[J].中国农村水利水电,2016,(12):88-92.
[7]Sanzana P,Jankowfsky S,Branger F,et al.Computer-assisted mesh generation based on hydrological response units for distributed hydrological modeling[J].Computers&Geosciences,2013,57:32-43.
[8]Shretha S,Bastola S,Babel M S,et al.The Assessment of Spatial and Temporal Transferability of a Physically Baesd Distributed Hydrologic Model Parameters in Different Physiographic Regions of Nepal[J].Journal of Hydrology,2007,347(1-2):153-172.
[9]李红霞,张新华,张永强,等.缺资料流域水文模型参数区域化研究进展[J].水文,2011,(3):13-17.
[10]韩通.API模型在中小河流无资料地区的应用研究[D].南京:河海大学,2016.
[11]李红霞.无径流资料流域的水文预报研究[D].辽宁大连:大连理工大学,2009.
[12]Bloschl G.Rainfall-runoff modeling of ungauged catchments[J].Encyclopedia of Hydrological Sciences(Ed.M.Anderson),2005:1 332 061-1 332 050.
[13]戚晓明,陆桂华,吴志勇,等.水文相似度及其应用[J].水利学报,2007,(3):355-360.
[14]张欣莉,丁晶,王顺久.投影寻踪分类模型评定相似流域[J].水科学进展,2001,(3):356-360.
[15]Savicz K,Wagener T,Sivapalan M,et al.Catchment classification:Empirical analysis of hydrologic similarity based on catchment function in the eastern USA[J].Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2011,15:2 895-2 911.
[16]Kileshye Onema J M,Taigbenu A E,Ndiritu J.Classification and flow prediction in a data-scarce watershed of the equatorial Nile region[J].Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2012,16(5):1 435-1 443.
[17]He Y,Bardossy A,Zehe E.A catchment classification scheme using local variance reduction method[J].Journal of Hydrology,2011,411(1-2):140-154.
[18]靳晓莉,张奇,许崇育.一个概念性水文模型的参数区域化研究:以东江流域为例[J].湖泊科学,2008,(6):723-732.
[19]Vandewiele G L,Elias A.Monthly water balance of ungauged catchments obtained by geographical regionalization[J].Journal of Hydrology,1995,170(1-4):277-291.
[20]Zhang Y,Chiew F H S.Relative merits of different methods for runoff predictions in ungauged catchments[J].Water Resources Research,2009,7(45):4 542-4 548.
[21]钟栗.新安江模型在中小河流无资料地区的应用研究[D].南京:河海大学,2016.
[22]Siriwardena L.Estimation Of SIMHYD Parameter Values For Application In Ungauged Catchments[J].MODSIM05-International Congress on Modelling and Simulation:Advances and Applications for Managem,2005,10(3):2 883-2 889.
[23]Christa K,Thorsten W,Brian M G.Model‐based analysis of the influence of catchment properties on hydrologic partitioning across five mountain headwater subcatchments[J].Water Resources Research,2015,51(6):n/a-n/a.
[24]Wuttichaiktcharoen P,Babel MS.Principal Component and Multiple Regression Analyses for the Estimation of Suspended Sediment Yield in Ungauged Basins of Northern Thailand[J].Water,2014,6(9):2847-2848.
[25]袁迪,宋星原,张艳军,等.基于遥感信息的新安江模型产流计算参数估计[J].水力发电学报,2014,(5):77-85.
[26]何虹,夏达忠,甘郝新.基于MODIS的水文特征指标提取与应用研究[J].水利信息化,2011,(4):4-8.
[27]夏希.基于地理学的流域水文模型参数推求研究[D].南京:河海大学,2008.
[28]Harman C J,Sivapalan M.A similarity framework to assess controls on shallow subsurface flow dynamics[J].Water Resources Research,2009,45.
[29]芮孝芳.利用地形地貌资料确定Nash模型参数的研究[J].水文,1999,(3):6-10.
[30]马天儒.基于下垫面特征的自由水蓄水容量区划研究[D].南京:河海大学,2016.
[31]梁珂,李致家,阚光远.新型汇流计算方法及其在缺资料地区的应用[J].人民黄河,2016,(3):15-17.
[32]伊璇.区划方法在无资料地区水文预报中的应用研究伊璇[J].水文,2014.
[33]Razavi T,Coulibaly P.Streamflow prediction in ungauged basdins review of regionalization methods[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2013,18(8):958-975.
[34]刘苏峡,刘昌明,赵卫民.无测站流域水文预测(PUB)的研究方法[J].地理科学进展,2010,(11):1 333-1 339.
[35]Abdulla F A,Lettenmaier D P.Development of regional parameter estimation equations for a macroscale hydrologic mode[J].Journal of Hydrology,1997,197:230-257.
[36]徐秀丽.区域化方法在贵州省水文模拟中的应用研究[D].南京:河海大学,2016.
[37]Braun L N,Renner C B.Application of a conceptual runoff model in different physiographic regions of Switzerland[J].Hydrological Sciences Journal一Journal Des Sciences Hydrologiques,1992,37(3):217-231.
[38]伍远康,王红英,陶永格,等.浙江省无资料流域洪水预报方法研究[J].水文,2015,(6):24-29.
[39]Merz R,Bloschl G.Regionalisation of catchment model parameters[J].Journal of Hydrology,2004,287(1):95-123.
[40]刘金涛,冯德锃,陈喜,等.应用Péclet数解析山坡结构特征的水文效应[J].水科学进展,2012,(1):1-6.
[41]Berne A,Uijlenhoet R,Troch P A.Similarity analysis of subsurface flow response of hillslopes with complex geometry[J].Water Resources Research,2005,41.
[42]姚成,章玉霞,李致家,等.无资料地区水文模拟及相似性分析[J].河海大学学报(自然科学版),2013,(2):108-113.
[43]Johansson B.The relationship between catchment characteristics and the parameters of a conceptual runoff model:a study in the south of Sweden[C]∥1994,221:475-482.
[44]武震,张世强,丁永建.水文系统模拟不确定性研究进展[J].中国沙漠,2007,(5):890-896.
[45]Zhan C,Song X,Xia J,et al.An efficient integrated approach for global sensitivity analysis of hydrological model parameters[J].Environmental Modeling&Software,2013,41:39-52.