基于随机响应面法的金鸡岭岩质边坡可靠度分析及抽样方法对比
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摘要
结合有限元滑面应力法和Hermite随机响应面法建立了金鸡岭岩质边坡稳定可靠度非侵入式分析模型,在此基础上研究了均匀设计抽样、LHS抽样、改进LHS抽样和分层抽样4种抽样配点方法对随机响应面的拟合精度、边坡失效概率及安全系数统计特征的影响。结果表明:(1)金鸡岭岩质边坡未支护状态下的失效概率约为18.4%,失稳风险较大,需采取支护加固措施;(2)改进LHS抽样和LHS抽样所构造的随机响应面具有较好的拟合精度,抽样配点效果优于分层抽样和均匀设计抽样;(3)建议边坡可靠度非侵入式随机分析采用改进LHS抽样或LHS抽样进行随机响应面的抽样配点计算,并尽可能多地选取样本点以外的验算点对随机响应面拟合精度进行校验。
The non-invasive analysis model of Jinjiling rock slope stability is established based on the finite element sliding stress method and Hermite stochastic response surface method. The influence of four typical sampling methods like uniform sampling,LHS sampling,improved LHS sampling and stratified sampling on the random response surface's fitting accuracy,slope failure probability and statistical characteristics of safety factor are studied.The results indicate that:(1)Jinjiling rock slope's failure probability is about 18.4%,which is dangerous and needs proper support and reinforcement measures.(2)The random response surfaces constructed by LHS sampling and improved LHS sampling have better fitting accuracy,and the sampling allocation effect is better than that of stratified sampling and uniform design sampling.(3)It is suggested that the sampling allocation of random response surface should be calculated by improved LHS sampling or LHS sampling in the process of non-intrusive random analysis of slope reliability.
The non-invasive analysis model of Jinjiling rock slope stability is established based on the finite element sliding stress method and Hermite stochastic response surface method. The influence of four typical sampling methods like uniform sampling,LHS sampling,improved LHS sampling and stratified sampling on the random response surface's fitting accuracy,slope failure probability and statistical characteristics of safety factor are studied.The results indicate that:(1)Jinjiling rock slope's failure probability is about 18.4%,which is dangerous and needs proper support and reinforcement measures.(2)The random response surfaces constructed by LHS sampling and improved LHS sampling have better fitting accuracy,and the sampling allocation effect is better than that of stratified sampling and uniform design sampling.(3)It is suggested that the sampling allocation of random response surface should be calculated by improved LHS sampling or LHS sampling in the process of non-intrusive random analysis of slope reliability.
引文
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[16]张巍峰,车延博,刘阳升.电力系统可靠性评估中的改进拉丁超立方抽样方法[J].电力系统自动化,2015,39(4):52-57.Zhang Weifeng,Che Yanbo,Liu Yangsheng.Improved latin hypercube sampling method for reliability evaluation of power systems[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2015,39(4):52-57.
[17]刘鹏.基于改进拉丁超立方重要抽样方法的结构可靠性分析[D].广州:暨南大学,2016.Liu Peng.Structural Reliability Analysis(SRA)Based on Improved Latin Hypercube Important Sampling[D].Guangzhou:Jinan University,2016.
[18]曹春野.基于改进的拉丁超立方参数随机地下水数值模拟研究[D].北京:中国地质大学(北京),2015.Cao Chunye.Study on Parameter Stochastic Groundwater Numerical Simulation Based on Improved Latin Hypercube Sampling[D].Beijng:China University of Geosciences(Beijing),2015.
[19]Phoon K K,Kulhawy F H.Characterization of geotechnical variability[J].Canadian Geotechnical Journal,1999,36(4):612-624.
[20]Phoon K K,Kulhawy F H.Evaluation of geotechnical property variability[J].Canadian Geotechnical Journal,1999,36(4):625-639.
[2]陈虬.随机有限元法及其工程应用[M].成都:西南交通大学出版社,1993.Chen Qiu.Stochastic Finite Element Method and Its Application in Engineering[M].Chengdu:Southwest Jiaotong University Press,1993.
[3]李典庆,蒋水华.边坡可靠度非侵入式随机分析方法[M].北京:科学出版社,2016.Li Dianqing,Jiang Shuihua.Non-intrusive Stochastic Analysis Method for Slope Reliability[M].Beijing:Science Press,2016.
[4]Isulapalli S S,Roy A,Georgopoulous P G.Stochastic response surface methods for uncertainty propagation:Application to environmental and biological systems[J].Risk Analysis,1998,18(3):351-363.
[5]蒋水华,李典庆,黎学优,等.锦屏一级水电站左岸坝肩边坡施工期高效三维可靠度分析[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2015,34(2):349-361.Jiang Shuihua,Li Dianqing,Li Xueyou,et al.Efficient three-dimensional reliability analysis of an abutment slope at the left bank of Jinping I hydropower station during construction[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics&Engineering,2015,34(2):349-361.
[6]李典庆,蒋水华,周创兵.基于非侵入式随机有限元法的地下洞室可靠度分析[J].岩土工程学报,2012,34(1):123-129.Li Dianqing,Jiang Shuihua,Zhou Chuangbing.Reliability analysis of underground rock caverns using non-intrusive stochastic finite element method[J].Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering,2012,34(1):123-129.
[7]胡冉,陈益峰,李典庆,等.心墙堆石坝渗透稳定可靠性分析的随机响应面法[J].岩土力学,2012,33(4):1051-1060.Hu Ran,Chen Yifeng,Li Dianqing,et al.Reliability analysis of seepage stability of core-wall rockfill dam based on stochastic response surface method[J].Rock and Soil Mechanics,2012,33(4):1051-1060.
[8]Zou J Z,Willians D J,Xiong W L.Search for critical silp surface based on finite element method[J].Canadian Geotechnical Journal,1995,32(2):233-246.
[9]张璐璐.岩土工程可靠度理论[M].上海:同济大学出版社,2011.Zhang Lulu.Geotechnical Engineering Reliability Theory[M].Shanghai:Tongji University Press,2011.
[10]李典庆,周创兵,陈益峰,等.边坡可靠度分析的随机响应面法及程序实现[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2010,29(8):1513-1523.Li Dianqing,Zhou Chuangbing,Chen Yifeng,et al.Reliability analysis of slope using stochastic response surface method and code implementation[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics&Engineering,2010,29(8):1513-1523.
[11]杨绿峰,杨显峰,余波,等.基于逐步回归分析的随机响应面法[J].计算力学学报,2013,30(1):88-93.Yang Lufeng,Yang Xianfeng,Yu Bo,et al.Improved stochastic response surface method based on stepwise regression analysis[J].Chinese Journal of Computational Mechanics,2013,30(1):88-93.
[12]胡冉,李典庆,周创兵,等.基于随机响应面法的结构可靠度分析[J].工程力学,2010,27(9):192-200.Hu Ran,Li Dianqing,Zhou Chuangbing,et al.Structural reliability analysis using stochastic response surface method[J].Engineering mechanics,2010,27(9):192-200.
[13]蒋水华,李典庆,曹子君,等.考虑参数空间变异性的边坡系统可靠度分析[J].应用基础与工程科学学报,2014(5):841-855.Jiang Shuihua,Li Dianqing,Cao Zijun,et al.System reliability analysis of slope considering spatial variability of soil properties[J].Journal of Basic Science and Engineering,2014(5):841-855.
[14]方开泰.均匀设计与均匀设计表[M].北京:科学出版社,1994.Fang Kaitai.Homogeneous Design and Homogeneous Design Tables[M].Beijing:Science Press,1994.
[15]张崎.基于Kriging方法的结构可靠性分析及优化设计[D].大连:大连理工大学,2005.Zhang Qi.Structural Reliability Analysis and Optimization Design based on Kriging Method[D].Dalian:Dalian University of Technology,2005.
[16]张巍峰,车延博,刘阳升.电力系统可靠性评估中的改进拉丁超立方抽样方法[J].电力系统自动化,2015,39(4):52-57.Zhang Weifeng,Che Yanbo,Liu Yangsheng.Improved latin hypercube sampling method for reliability evaluation of power systems[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2015,39(4):52-57.
[17]刘鹏.基于改进拉丁超立方重要抽样方法的结构可靠性分析[D].广州:暨南大学,2016.Liu Peng.Structural Reliability Analysis(SRA)Based on Improved Latin Hypercube Important Sampling[D].Guangzhou:Jinan University,2016.
[18]曹春野.基于改进的拉丁超立方参数随机地下水数值模拟研究[D].北京:中国地质大学(北京),2015.Cao Chunye.Study on Parameter Stochastic Groundwater Numerical Simulation Based on Improved Latin Hypercube Sampling[D].Beijng:China University of Geosciences(Beijing),2015.
[19]Phoon K K,Kulhawy F H.Characterization of geotechnical variability[J].Canadian Geotechnical Journal,1999,36(4):612-624.
[20]Phoon K K,Kulhawy F H.Evaluation of geotechnical property variability[J].Canadian Geotechnical Journal,1999,36(4):625-639.