新能源约束下的五维能源供需超混沌系统
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摘要
基于非线性动力学理论将新能源纳入四维能源供需系统,构造具有新能源约束的五维能源供需系统.讨论了五维能源系统的动力学行为以及系统中参数和方程增加扰动项后的混沌吸引子, Lyapunov指数谱图和分岔图.研究结果表明,该五维能源供需系统是超混沌系统;增加扰动项后五维能源供需系统会出现更复杂的混沌现象.这说明新能源的发展打破了能源市场中消费结构和供需系统的平衡,从理论上阐述了新能源的发展对实际能源市场产生紊乱的现象.
In order to study the impact of the development of new energy on the energy supply-demand system,this paper incorporates new energy into the four-dimensional energy demand-supply system and constructs a new five-dimensional energy demand-supply system with new energy constraints, based on the nonlinear dynamics theory. This paper not only analyzes the dynamic behaviors of the five-dimensional energy system,but also investigates the chaotic attractor, Lyapunov exponents and bifurcation diagrams with disturbances of parameters and equations in the new five-dimensional energy demand-supply system. The results show that the new system is a hyper-chaos system and the hyper-chaos system with the disturbances can become a more complex chaotic phenomenon. It indicates that the development of new energy can destroy the balance of consumption structures and demand-supply systems in the energy market. Therefore, the phenomenon of energy market disruption could be caused by the development of new energy in theory.
In order to study the impact of the development of new energy on the energy supply-demand system,this paper incorporates new energy into the four-dimensional energy demand-supply system and constructs a new five-dimensional energy demand-supply system with new energy constraints, based on the nonlinear dynamics theory. This paper not only analyzes the dynamic behaviors of the five-dimensional energy system,but also investigates the chaotic attractor, Lyapunov exponents and bifurcation diagrams with disturbances of parameters and equations in the new five-dimensional energy demand-supply system. The results show that the new system is a hyper-chaos system and the hyper-chaos system with the disturbances can become a more complex chaotic phenomenon. It indicates that the development of new energy can destroy the balance of consumption structures and demand-supply systems in the energy market. Therefore, the phenomenon of energy market disruption could be caused by the development of new energy in theory.
引文
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[14]方国昌,田立新,傅敏,等.新能源发展对能源强度和经济增长的影响.系统工程理论与实践, 2013, 33(11):2795–2803.Fang G C, Tian L X, Fu M, et al. Impacts of new energy on energy intensity and economic growth. Systems Engineering:Theory&Practice, 2013, 33(11):2795–2803.(in Chinese)
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[17]辛宝贵,陈通,刘艳芹.一类分数阶混沌金融系统的复杂性演化研究.物理学报, 2011, 60(4):048901.Xin B G, Chen T, Liu Y Q. Complexity evolvement of a chaotic fractional-order financial system. Acta Physica Sinica, 2011, 60(4):048901.(in Chinese)
[18]祝大伟,涂俐兰.随机扰动下Lorenz混沌系统的自适应同步与参数识别.物理学报, 2013, 62(5):050508.Zhu D W, Tu L L. Adaptive synchronization and parameter identification for Lorenz chaotic system with stochastic perturbations.Acta Physica Sinica, 2013, 62(5):050508.(in Chinese)
[2] Desideri U, Yan J. Clean energy technologies and systems for a sustainable world. Applied Energy, 2012, 97:1–4.
[3]衣博文,许金华,范英.我国可再生能源配额制中长期目标的最优实现路径及对电力行业的影响分析.系统工程学报, 2017,32(3):313–324.Yi B W, Xu J H, Fan Y. Optimal pathway and impact of achieving the mid-long term renewable portfolio standard in China. Journal of Systems Engineering, 2017, 32(3):313–324.(in Chinese)
[4]石敏俊,周晟吕,李娜,等.能源约束下的中国经济中长期发展前景.系统工程学报, 2014, 29(5):602–611.Shi M J, Zhou S L, Li N, et al. Prospect for China’s medium and long-term economic development under energy supply constraint.Journal of Systems Engineering, 2014, 29(5):602–611.(in Chinese)
[5]周亚虹,蒲余路,陈诗一,等.政府扶持与新型产业发展:以新能源为例.经济研究, 2015,(6):147–161.Zhou Y H, Pu Y L, Chen S Y, et al. Government support and development of emerging industries:A new energy industry survey.Economic Research Journal, 2015,(6):147–161.(in Chinese)
[6] Sun Y, Wei Z, Sun G, et al. Stochastic synchronization of nonlinear energy resource system via partial feedback control. Nonlinear Dynamics, 2012, 70(3):2269–2278.
[7] Chang-jian C W, Chang S M. Bifurcation and chaos analysis of spur gear pair with and without nonlinear suspension. Nonlinear Analysis:Real World Applications, 2011, 12(2):979–989.
[8] Fang G, Tian L, Sun M, et al. Analysis and application of a novel three-dimensional energy-saving andemission-reduction dynamic evolution system. Energy, 2012, 40(1):291–299.
[9] Fang G, Tian L, Fu M, et al. Government control or low carbon lifestyle:Analysis and application of a novel selective-constrained energy-saving and emission-reduction dynamic evolution system. Energy Policy, 2014, 68(2):498–507.
[10] Sun M, Tian L X, Fu Y. An energy resources demand–supply system and its dynamical analysis. Chaos, Solitons and Fractals, 2007,32(1):168–180.
[11] Sun M, Wang X, Chen Y, et al. Energy resources demand-supply system analysis and empirical research based on non-linear approach. Energy, 2011, 36(9):5460–5465.
[12]刘明磊,范英,朱磊,等.减排政策作用下的新能源内生技术变化建模.系统工程学报, 2014, 29(6):763–770.Liu M L, Fan Y, Zhu L, et al. Modeling for new energy endogenous technological change under action of emission reduction policies.Journal of Systems Engineering, 2014, 29(6):763–770.(in Chinese)
[13]孙梅,田立新.一个新的四维能源供需系统及其混沌控制.能源技术与管理, 2007,(5):25–30.Sun M, Tian L X. A new four-dimensional energy demand-supply system and chaos control. Energy Technology and Management,2007,(5):25–30.(in Chinese)
[14]方国昌,田立新,傅敏,等.新能源发展对能源强度和经济增长的影响.系统工程理论与实践, 2013, 33(11):2795–2803.Fang G C, Tian L X, Fu M, et al. Impacts of new energy on energy intensity and economic growth. Systems Engineering:Theory&Practice, 2013, 33(11):2795–2803.(in Chinese)
[15] Mei S, Li X T, Chang Y Z. The energy resources system with parametric perturbations and its hyperchaos control. Nonlinear Analysis:Real World Applications, 2009, 10(4):2620–2626.
[16]李震波,唐驾时.参数扰动下的混沌同步控制及其保密通信方案.控制理论与应用, 2014, 31(5):592–600.Li Z B, Tang J S. Chaotic synchronization with parameter perturbation and its secure communication scheme. Control Theory&Applications, 2014, 31(5):592–600.(in Chinese)
[17]辛宝贵,陈通,刘艳芹.一类分数阶混沌金融系统的复杂性演化研究.物理学报, 2011, 60(4):048901.Xin B G, Chen T, Liu Y Q. Complexity evolvement of a chaotic fractional-order financial system. Acta Physica Sinica, 2011, 60(4):048901.(in Chinese)
[18]祝大伟,涂俐兰.随机扰动下Lorenz混沌系统的自适应同步与参数识别.物理学报, 2013, 62(5):050508.Zhu D W, Tu L L. Adaptive synchronization and parameter identification for Lorenz chaotic system with stochastic perturbations.Acta Physica Sinica, 2013, 62(5):050508.(in Chinese)