金沟河流域水文气象要素关系变异诊断
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摘要
为了研究全球气候变化背景下金沟河流域水文、气象要素变化特征,选取内陆干旱区金沟河流域八家户水文站1964-2016年实测年径流资料和同步实测气象(气温、降水)资料,在采用累积距平法、R/S分析法、M-K趋势检验法分析水文气象要素序列演变规律的基础上,运用Pearson相关系数法分析径流与气温、降水间的相关性,将偏相关系数法与数据滑动窗口技术相结合,分析径流与气象要素(气温、降水)间的相互关系及变异特征,最后采用双累积曲线法对变异点进行验证。结果表明:金沟河流域1964-2016年年径流量以极其微弱的趋势波动增加,增加趋势不显著(0 0. 5);同时段气温具有极显著的增加趋势(U=4. 33> Uα/2=2. 56> 0),未来气温将呈现出明显的持续增加趋势(H=0. 78> 0. 5);同时段降水具有显著的增加趋势(U=2. 13> Uα/2=1. 96> 0),未来降水将持续增加(H=0. 54> 0. 5);相关性分析表明,气温是影响金沟河流域径流的主要气象因子;滑动偏相关系数法分析表明,径流-气温联合序列变异点为1985年,采用双累积曲线法进行验证,结果与其一致。
In order to study the change characteristics of hydrological and meteorological factors of Jingou River Basin under the global climate change background,the measured monthly runoff data,and the synchronous measured temperature and precipitation data from 1964 to 2016 of Bajiahu Hydrological Station in Jingou River Basin in inland arid area were selected. Based on the accumulated variance analysis method,R/S method and Mann-Kendall trend test method,we analyzed the evolution law of hydrometeorological elements,and the correlation coefficient between runoff and temperature or precipitation by Pearson correlation coefficient method. By combining partial correlation with data sliding window technology,we analyzed the relationship and variation characteristics between runoff and meteorological elements( temperature and precipitation). Finally,the double cumulative curve method was used to verify the variation points. The results found that: the runoff data from 1964 to 2016 in Jingou River Basin has an increased trend,but not significant( 0 < U = 1. 0 < Uα/2= 1. 96),and the annual runoff would continue to rise for the foreseeable future( H = 0. 68 > 0. 5). At the same time,the temperature in the interval had a very significant increase trend( U = 4. 33 > Uα/2= 2. 56 > 0),and the future temperature would show a significant continuous increase trend( H = 0. 78 > 0. 5). Meanwhile,precipitation in the interval had a significant increase trend( U = 2. 13 > Uα/2= 1. 96 > 0),and precipitation would continue to increase in the future( H = 0. 54 > 0. 5). The correlation analysis found that temperature was the main meteorological factor affecting runoff in Jingou River. The sliding partial correlation coefficient method results showed that the variation point of the runoff and temperature joint sequence was in 1985,and the result was consistent with those verified by the double cumulative curve method.
In order to study the change characteristics of hydrological and meteorological factors of Jingou River Basin under the global climate change background,the measured monthly runoff data,and the synchronous measured temperature and precipitation data from 1964 to 2016 of Bajiahu Hydrological Station in Jingou River Basin in inland arid area were selected. Based on the accumulated variance analysis method,R/S method and Mann-Kendall trend test method,we analyzed the evolution law of hydrometeorological elements,and the correlation coefficient between runoff and temperature or precipitation by Pearson correlation coefficient method. By combining partial correlation with data sliding window technology,we analyzed the relationship and variation characteristics between runoff and meteorological elements( temperature and precipitation). Finally,the double cumulative curve method was used to verify the variation points. The results found that: the runoff data from 1964 to 2016 in Jingou River Basin has an increased trend,but not significant( 0 < U = 1. 0 < Uα/2= 1. 96),and the annual runoff would continue to rise for the foreseeable future( H = 0. 68 > 0. 5). At the same time,the temperature in the interval had a very significant increase trend( U = 4. 33 > Uα/2= 2. 56 > 0),and the future temperature would show a significant continuous increase trend( H = 0. 78 > 0. 5). Meanwhile,precipitation in the interval had a significant increase trend( U = 2. 13 > Uα/2= 1. 96 > 0),and precipitation would continue to increase in the future( H = 0. 54 > 0. 5). The correlation analysis found that temperature was the main meteorological factor affecting runoff in Jingou River. The sliding partial correlation coefficient method results showed that the variation point of the runoff and temperature joint sequence was in 1985,and the result was consistent with those verified by the double cumulative curve method.
引文
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[3]崔师胜.浅析新疆金沟河流域水资源管理现状及存在问题[J].新疆水利,2014(5):10-12.
[4]董奎,刘兵,郑旭荣.金沟河流域气温、降水与年径流量演变规律研究[J].人民黄河,2010,32(5):32-33.
[5]韩舜滨.近30年金沟河流量变化与气候因子相关性分析[J].新疆水利,2017(2):31-35.
[6]叶磊,周建中,曾小凡,等.水文多变量趋势分析的应用研究[J].水文,2014,34(6):33-39.
[7]李艳玲,畅建霞,黄强,等.基于滑动Copula函数的降水和径流关系变异诊断[J].水力发电学报,2014,33(6):20-24+60.
[8]贡丽洁.基于不同时间尺度的伊犁河谷水面蒸发影响因素分析[J].浙江水利水电学院学报,2014,26(4):20-23.
[9]何兵,高凡,闫正龙,等.叶尔羌河径流演变规律与变异特征[J].水资源与水工程学报,2018,29(1):38-43+49.
[10]何庆龙,周维博,夏伟,等.延安市近60年降水时空特征分析[J].水资源与水工程学报,2018,29(1):31-37.
[11]陈伏龙,王怡璇,吴泽斌,等.气候变化和人类活动对干旱区内陆河径流量的影响———以新疆玛纳斯河流域肯斯瓦特水文站为例[J].干旱区研究,2015,32(4):692-697.
[12]魏天锋,刘志辉,姚俊强,等.呼图壁河径流过程对气候变化的响应[J].干旱区资源与环境,2015,29(4):102-107.
[13]汪宝龙,张明军,魏军林,等.西北地区近50a气温和降水极端事件的变化特征[J].自然资源学报,2012,27(10):1720-1733.
[14]秦丽欢,周敬祥,李叙勇,等.密云水库上游径流变化趋势及影响因素[J].生态学报,2018,38(6):1941-1951.
[15]郭爱军,畅建霞,王义民,等.近50年泾河流域降雨-径流关系变化及驱动因素定量分析[J].农业工程学报,2015,31(14):165-171.
[16]林学椿.统计天气预报中相关系数的不稳定性问题[J].大气科学,1978(1):55-63.
[17]董奎.金沟河流域气温、降水及径流的变化趋势[J].水利科技与经济,2010,16(5):490-492+497.
[18]张蕾.金沟河流域水资源开发及利用[J].水利科技与经济,2013,19(1):83-86.
[19]唐军.新疆金沟河流域水资源开发利用现状与对策研究[J].水利规划与设计,2012(2):20-22+30.