河北省汛期降水集中度和集中期时空特征分析
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摘要
基于河北省1965—2015年25个典型气象站汛期(6—9月)逐日降水资料,利用小波分析、Mann-Kendall法和合成分析法对降水集中度(PCD)和集中期(PCP)时空变化特征进行分析。结果表明:(1)PCD值为0.18~0.56,PCP值为47.26°~194.70°,汛期最大降水集中在7月上旬和中旬;PCD和PCP均存在35 a左右的主周期和20 a左右的次周期;近50年,PCD和PCP均不存在突变年份。(2)PCD由东南向西北方向递减;河北南部PCP由东北向西南逐渐推迟,河北北部PCP由承德地区向东西两个方向逐渐推迟。(3)多水年和少水年PCD的空间分布均由东南向西北递减,但多水年的PCD高值区多于少水年;多水年和少水年PCP空间分布较一致,河北南部PCP由中部地区向南北两侧逐渐推迟,河北北部PCP由丰宁和围场向东西两侧逐渐推迟,但少水年比多水年PCP时间范围更长,空间差异更大。(4)从相关分析来看,汛期降水量与全省PCD具有较好的正相关性,仅与承德、涉县、清河和馆陶的PCP存在较好的负相关性。
Based on the daily precipitation data of 25 typical meteorological stations in Hebei province from 1965 to2015( June to September),the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of the precipitation concentration degree( PCD) and the precipitation concentration period( PCP) are analyzed by wavelet analysis and MannKendall as well as the synthetic analysis method. The analysis results show that:(1) The PCD value is between0. 18 ~ 0. 56,and the PCP value is between 47. 26° ~ 194. 70°,the maximum precipitation in the flood season is concentrated in early and mid of July; both PCD and PCP exist in the main period of about 35 years and sub cycles about 20 years; in the last 50 years,neither PCD nor PCP has mutation years.(2)PCD decreases from southeast to northwest,and the PCP in southern Hebei Province is gradually delayed from the northeast to southwest,the PCP of the northern Hebei Province is gradually delayed from the Chengde region to the east and the west in two directions.(3)The spatial distribution of the PCD in the more-water year and the less-water year decreases from the southeast to the northwest,but the high value area of the PCD in the more-water year is more than that of the lesswater year; The spatial distribution of the PCP is consistent in the more-water year and the less-water year,the PCP in the southern Hebei Province is gradually postponed from the central region to the north and the south sides,the PCP in the northern Hebei Province is gradually postponed from Fengning and Weichang to the east and the west sides,but compared with the more-water year,the PCP range of the less-water year is longer,and its spatial differences are greater.(4) From the relevant analysis,the precipitation in the flood season has a good positive correlation with PCD in the whole province,and only has a good negative correlation with the PCP of Chengde,Shexian,Qinghe and Guantao.
Based on the daily precipitation data of 25 typical meteorological stations in Hebei province from 1965 to2015( June to September),the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of the precipitation concentration degree( PCD) and the precipitation concentration period( PCP) are analyzed by wavelet analysis and MannKendall as well as the synthetic analysis method. The analysis results show that:(1) The PCD value is between0. 18 ~ 0. 56,and the PCP value is between 47. 26° ~ 194. 70°,the maximum precipitation in the flood season is concentrated in early and mid of July; both PCD and PCP exist in the main period of about 35 years and sub cycles about 20 years; in the last 50 years,neither PCD nor PCP has mutation years.(2)PCD decreases from southeast to northwest,and the PCP in southern Hebei Province is gradually delayed from the northeast to southwest,the PCP of the northern Hebei Province is gradually delayed from the Chengde region to the east and the west in two directions.(3)The spatial distribution of the PCD in the more-water year and the less-water year decreases from the southeast to the northwest,but the high value area of the PCD in the more-water year is more than that of the lesswater year; The spatial distribution of the PCP is consistent in the more-water year and the less-water year,the PCP in the southern Hebei Province is gradually postponed from the central region to the north and the south sides,the PCP in the northern Hebei Province is gradually postponed from Fengning and Weichang to the east and the west sides,but compared with the more-water year,the PCP range of the less-water year is longer,and its spatial differences are greater.(4) From the relevant analysis,the precipitation in the flood season has a good positive correlation with PCD in the whole province,and only has a good negative correlation with the PCP of Chengde,Shexian,Qinghe and Guantao.
引文
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[9]王宏,余锦华,李宗涛,等.基于Z指数的河北省旱涝多尺度变化特征[J].气象与环境学报,2012,28(1):43-47.(WANG Hong,YU Jinhua,LI Zongtao,et al.Multi-time scale characteristics of drought and flood based on Z index in Hebei Province[J].Journal of Meteorology and Environment,2012,28(1):43-47.(in Chinese))
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[13]DING Y H.Multi-year simulations and experimental seasonal predictions for rainy seasons in China by using a nested regional climate model(Reg CM_NCC).Part I:Sensitivity Study[J].Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,2006,23(3):323-341.
[14]任志艳,延军平,王鹏涛.1960-2012年内蒙古降水集中度和降水集中期时空变化[J].中国沙漠,2016,36(3):760-766.(REN Zhiyan,YAN Junping,WANG Pengtao.Spatio-temporal variations of precipitation concentration degree and precipitation concentration period in Inner Mongolia[J].Journal of Desert Research,2016,36(3):760-766.(in Chinese))
[15]桑燕芳,王中根,刘昌明.小波分析方法在水文学研究中的应用现状及展望[J].地理科学进展,2013,32(9):1413-1422.(SANG Yanfang,WANG Zhonggen,LIU Changming.Applications of wavelet analysis to hydrology:Status and prospects[J].Progress in Geography,2013,32(9):1413-1422.(in Chinese))
[16]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].北京:气象出版社,2007:63-66.(WEI Fengying.Modern climate statistical diagnosis and prediction technology[M].Beijing:China Meteorological Press,2007:63-66.(in Chinese))
[17]苗运玲,张云惠,卓世新,等.东疆地区汛期降水集中度和集中期的时空变化特征[J].干旱气象,2017,35(6):949-956.(MIAO Yunling,ZHANG Yunhui,ZHUO Shixin,et al.Spatial and temporal variation characteristics of PCD and PCP in Eastern Xinjiang in flood season[J].Journal of Arid Meteorology,2017,35(6):949-956.(in Chinese))
[18]尹乐.湖南降水集中度变化特征分析[D].长沙:湖南师范大学,2015.(YIN Le.Analysis of precipitation concentration degree changes in Hunan province[D].Changsha:Hunan Normal University,2015.(in Chinese))
[19]张金玲,王冀,邹菊香,等.广东地区后汛期降水集中度和集中期特征[J].气象科技,2011,37(4):401-407.(ZHANG Jinling,WANG Ji,ZOU Juxiang,et al.Characteristics of precipitation concentration degree and precipitation concentration period during second rainy season in Guangdong[J].Meteorological Science and Technology,2011,37(4):401-407.(in Chinese))
[20]张林梅,庄晓翠,胡磊,等.新疆阿勒泰地区汛期降水集中度和集中期的时空变化特征[J].中国农业气象,2009,30(4):501-508.(ZHANG Linmei,ZHUANG Xiaocui,HU Lei,et al.Temporal and spatial distribution of precipitation concentration degree and concentration period in flood season in Altay Region Xinjiang[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2009,30(4):501-508.(in Chinese))
[21]唐亚平,张凯,张伟,等.东北雨季降水集中度和集中期的变化特征[J].安徽农业科学,2010,38(2):806-811.(TANG Yaping,ZHANG Kai,ZHANG Wei,et al.Change characteristics of precipitation concentration degree and centralism time in Northeast China during the rainy season[J].Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences,2010,38(2):806-811.(in Chinese))
[22]曹永强,邵文婷,张亮亮,等.基于可变模糊评价法的辽西北地区干旱分区研究[J].华北水利水电大学学报(自然科学版),2016,37(1):29-34.(CAO Yongqiang,SHAO Wenting,ZHANG Liangliang,et al.Research on drought partition in the Northwest of Liaoning Province based on the variable fuzzy assessment method[J].Journal of North China University of Water Research and Electric Power(Natural Science Edition),2016,37(1):29-34.(in Chinese))
[23]左其亭.最严格水资源管理保障体系的构建及研究展望[J].华北水利水电大学学报(自然科学版),2016,37(4):7-11.(ZUO Qiting.Guarantee system construction and research prospects of the strictest water resources management[J].Journal of North China University of Water Research and Electric Power(Natural Science Edition),2016,37(4):7-11.(in Chinese))
[2]郑炎辉,陈晓宏,何艳虎,等.珠江流域降水集中度时空变化特征及成因分析[J].水文,2016,36(5):22-28.(ZHENG Yanhui,CHEN Xiaohong,HE Yanhu,et al.Spatial-temporal variation of precipitation concentration degree in Pearl River basin and its causes[J].Journal of China Hydrology,2016,36(5):22-28.(in Chinese))
[3]ZHANG L J,QIANG Y F.Annual distribution of the yearly precipitation in China and their interannual variation[J].Acta Meteor Sinica,2003,17(2):146-163.
[4]曹永强,路璐,张亭亭,等.基于降水集中度和集中期的浙江省降水时空变化特征分析[J].资源科学,2013,35(5):1001-1006.(CAO Yongqiang,LU Lu,ZHANG Tingting,et al.Spatio-temporal variation in precipitation in Zhejiang Province based on PCD and PCP[J].Resources Science,2013,35(5):1001-1006.(in Chinese))
[5]李远平,杨太保,马建国.淠河流域汛期降水集中度和集中期的变化特征[J].资源科学,2012,34(3):418-423.(LI Yuanping,YANG Taibao,MA Jianguo.Change characteristics of precipitation concentration degree(PCD)and precipitation concentration period(PCP)in the flood season in Pi River valley[J].Resources Science,2012,34(3):418-423.(in Chinese))
[6]胡丽莉,李玲萍,郭小芹.河西走廊东部汛期降水集中度和集中期特征分析[J].干旱区研究,2016,33(4):758-765.(HU Lili,LI Lingping,GUO Xiaoqin.Precipitation concentration degree and precipitation concentration period in the East Hexi Corridor in flood season[J].Arid Zone Research,2016,33(4):758-765.(in Chinese))
[7]张天宇,程炳岩,王记芳,等.华北雨季降水集中度和集中期的时空变化特征[J].高原气象,2007,26(4):843-853.(ZHANG Tianyu,CHENG Bingyan,WANG Jifang,et al.Temporal and spatial change characteristics of precipitationconcentration degree(PCD)and precipitation-concentration period(PCP)over North China in rainy reason[J].Plateau Meteorology,2007,26(4):843-853.(in Chinese))
[8]王宏,余锦华,王万筠,等.河北省旱涝的变化特征及其相关的海气异常型分析[J].南京信息工程大学学报(自然科学版),2013(6):487-493.(WANG Hong,YU Jinhua,WANG Wanjun,et al.Variability of drought/flood in Hebei Province and associated atmospheric and oceanic pattern analysis[J].Journal of Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology(Natural Science Edition),2013(6):487-493.(in Chinese))
[9]王宏,余锦华,李宗涛,等.基于Z指数的河北省旱涝多尺度变化特征[J].气象与环境学报,2012,28(1):43-47.(WANG Hong,YU Jinhua,LI Zongtao,et al.Multi-time scale characteristics of drought and flood based on Z index in Hebei Province[J].Journal of Meteorology and Environment,2012,28(1):43-47.(in Chinese))
[10]王晓东,潘学标,龙步菊,等.近50年来河北省降水和温度极端事件分析[J].中国农业气象,2010,31(2):170-175.(WANG Xiaodong,PAN Xuebiao,LONG Buju,et al.Analysis of extreme precipitation and temperature events in Hebei Province over last 50 years[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2010,31(2):170-175.(in Chinese))
[11]高霞,王宏,于成文,等.近45年来河北省极端降水事件的变化研究[J].气象,2009,35(7):10-15.(GAO Xia,WANG Hong,YU Chengwen,et al.Analysis of extreme precipitation events change for Hebei Province[J].Meteorological Monthly,2009,35(7):10-15.(in Chinese))
[12]黄鹤,杨超,于雷,等.1958—2012年河北省汛期暴雨气候变化特征分析[J].气象与环境学报,2015,31(2):44-50.(HUANG He,YANG Chao,YU Lei,et al.Analysis of climate change characteristics of rainstorm during flood season from 1958to 2012 in Hebei Province[J].Journal of Meteorology and Environment,2015,31(2):44-50.(in Chinese))
[13]DING Y H.Multi-year simulations and experimental seasonal predictions for rainy seasons in China by using a nested regional climate model(Reg CM_NCC).Part I:Sensitivity Study[J].Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,2006,23(3):323-341.
[14]任志艳,延军平,王鹏涛.1960-2012年内蒙古降水集中度和降水集中期时空变化[J].中国沙漠,2016,36(3):760-766.(REN Zhiyan,YAN Junping,WANG Pengtao.Spatio-temporal variations of precipitation concentration degree and precipitation concentration period in Inner Mongolia[J].Journal of Desert Research,2016,36(3):760-766.(in Chinese))
[15]桑燕芳,王中根,刘昌明.小波分析方法在水文学研究中的应用现状及展望[J].地理科学进展,2013,32(9):1413-1422.(SANG Yanfang,WANG Zhonggen,LIU Changming.Applications of wavelet analysis to hydrology:Status and prospects[J].Progress in Geography,2013,32(9):1413-1422.(in Chinese))
[16]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].北京:气象出版社,2007:63-66.(WEI Fengying.Modern climate statistical diagnosis and prediction technology[M].Beijing:China Meteorological Press,2007:63-66.(in Chinese))
[17]苗运玲,张云惠,卓世新,等.东疆地区汛期降水集中度和集中期的时空变化特征[J].干旱气象,2017,35(6):949-956.(MIAO Yunling,ZHANG Yunhui,ZHUO Shixin,et al.Spatial and temporal variation characteristics of PCD and PCP in Eastern Xinjiang in flood season[J].Journal of Arid Meteorology,2017,35(6):949-956.(in Chinese))
[18]尹乐.湖南降水集中度变化特征分析[D].长沙:湖南师范大学,2015.(YIN Le.Analysis of precipitation concentration degree changes in Hunan province[D].Changsha:Hunan Normal University,2015.(in Chinese))
[19]张金玲,王冀,邹菊香,等.广东地区后汛期降水集中度和集中期特征[J].气象科技,2011,37(4):401-407.(ZHANG Jinling,WANG Ji,ZOU Juxiang,et al.Characteristics of precipitation concentration degree and precipitation concentration period during second rainy season in Guangdong[J].Meteorological Science and Technology,2011,37(4):401-407.(in Chinese))
[20]张林梅,庄晓翠,胡磊,等.新疆阿勒泰地区汛期降水集中度和集中期的时空变化特征[J].中国农业气象,2009,30(4):501-508.(ZHANG Linmei,ZHUANG Xiaocui,HU Lei,et al.Temporal and spatial distribution of precipitation concentration degree and concentration period in flood season in Altay Region Xinjiang[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2009,30(4):501-508.(in Chinese))
[21]唐亚平,张凯,张伟,等.东北雨季降水集中度和集中期的变化特征[J].安徽农业科学,2010,38(2):806-811.(TANG Yaping,ZHANG Kai,ZHANG Wei,et al.Change characteristics of precipitation concentration degree and centralism time in Northeast China during the rainy season[J].Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences,2010,38(2):806-811.(in Chinese))
[22]曹永强,邵文婷,张亮亮,等.基于可变模糊评价法的辽西北地区干旱分区研究[J].华北水利水电大学学报(自然科学版),2016,37(1):29-34.(CAO Yongqiang,SHAO Wenting,ZHANG Liangliang,et al.Research on drought partition in the Northwest of Liaoning Province based on the variable fuzzy assessment method[J].Journal of North China University of Water Research and Electric Power(Natural Science Edition),2016,37(1):29-34.(in Chinese))
[23]左其亭.最严格水资源管理保障体系的构建及研究展望[J].华北水利水电大学学报(自然科学版),2016,37(4):7-11.(ZUO Qiting.Guarantee system construction and research prospects of the strictest water resources management[J].Journal of North China University of Water Research and Electric Power(Natural Science Edition),2016,37(4):7-11.(in Chinese))