不同RCP情景下未来汉江流域气象干旱变化趋势预估研究
|
摘要
采用来自国际比较计划CMIP5的5个全球气候模式(GCMs)数据,同时这些模式数据也是跨行业影响模式比较计划(ISIMIP)采用的气候模式数据,以RCP2.6和RCP8.5两种情景下的日降雨预估数据,计算了汉江流域不同时段的标准化降水指数(SPI),以此作为预估未来干旱变化趋势的主要依据。以汉江流域22个气象站点的降雨量观测数据(1960～2004年)和2020～2059年气候模式数据,对比分析了这两个时期干旱事件发生的严重程度、次数和历时特征。结果表明:在干旱严重程度方面,轻度干旱和中度干旱有减轻的趋势,但严重干旱有加重的趋势。由于不同GCMs模拟能力的差异性,对干旱事件的发生次数和历时的分析有一定差异,但总体仍表现为干旱次数减少和历时减短的趋势。通过对比历史时期降水观测数据和GCMs模式预估数据评估结果,表明HadGEM2-ES模式对降水的拟合性最好,而GFDL-ESM2M和IPSL-CM5A-LR在干旱方面表现出较好的模拟能力。
In this paper the daily precipitation data from five global climate models(GCMs), which are all from CMIP5 and also the input in the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Inter-comparison Project(ISIMIP), under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios respectively in the Hanjiang River Basin is used to project the drought changes in the area through Standard Precipitation Index(SPI) at different time scales. Based on the observed data from 22 meteorological stations in Hanjiang River Basin in 1960-2004, and the GCM data in 2020-2059, three characters related to the drought events in these two durations, including drought severity, frequency and duration are compared and analyzed. Results show that in the drought severity the light or moderate drought events will happened less while the severe drought events can arise more often. As to the frequency and duration it is difficult to draw an identical conclusion from different GCMs. Anyway there is a general tendency in less frequency and shorter duration in the future. Through the comparison between the historical observed data and GCM generated data, HadGEM2-ES shows better performance in the rainfall simulation while GFDL-ESM2 M and IPSL-CM5 A-LR have better results in the less-rainfall namely drought analysis.
In this paper the daily precipitation data from five global climate models(GCMs), which are all from CMIP5 and also the input in the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Inter-comparison Project(ISIMIP), under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios respectively in the Hanjiang River Basin is used to project the drought changes in the area through Standard Precipitation Index(SPI) at different time scales. Based on the observed data from 22 meteorological stations in Hanjiang River Basin in 1960-2004, and the GCM data in 2020-2059, three characters related to the drought events in these two durations, including drought severity, frequency and duration are compared and analyzed. Results show that in the drought severity the light or moderate drought events will happened less while the severe drought events can arise more often. As to the frequency and duration it is difficult to draw an identical conclusion from different GCMs. Anyway there is a general tendency in less frequency and shorter duration in the future. Through the comparison between the historical observed data and GCM generated data, HadGEM2-ES shows better performance in the rainfall simulation while GFDL-ESM2 M and IPSL-CM5 A-LR have better results in the less-rainfall namely drought analysis.
引文
[1] 姜彤,李修仓,巢清尘,等.《气候变化2014:影响、适应和脆弱性》的主要结论和新认知[J].气候变化研究进展,2014,10(3):157-166.JIANG T,LI X C,CHAO Q C,et al.Highlights and understandingof climate change 2014:Impacts,adaptation,and vulnerability[J].Progressus Inquisitiones de Mutatione Climatis,2014,10(3):157-166.
[2] 沈永平,王国亚.IPCC第一工作组第五次评估报告对全球气候变化认知的最新科学要点[J].冰川冻土,2013,35(5):1068-1076.SHENG Y P,WANG Y G.Key findings and assessment results of IPCC WGI fifth assessment report[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2013,35(5):1068-1076.
[3] 宋连春,邓振镛,董安祥,等.干旱[M].北京:气象出版社,2003:14-55.SONG L C,DENG Z Y,DONG A X,et al.Drought[M].Beijing:China Meteorological Press,2003:14-55.
[4] 杨金虎,张强,王劲松,等.近60年来西南地区旱涝变化及极端和持续性特征认识[J].地理科学,2015,35(10):1333-1340.YANG J H,ZHANG Q,WANG J S,et al.Extreme and persistent feature of drought and flood of Southwest China in past 60 years[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2015,35(10):1333-1340.
[5] 孟婵,殷淑燕.汉江上游近50年降水序列变化及其干旱预测研究[J].农业现代化研究,2012,33(1):125-128.MENG C,YIN S Y.Precipitation change and occurrence of rainstorms and floods in Upper Reaches of Hanjiang River during last 50 years[J].Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,33(1):125-128.
[6] 张逸飞,张中旺,龚佑海.汉江中下游流域降水时空规律分析及干旱预测[J].环境工程,2016,34(2):150-154.ZHANG Y F,ZHANG Z W,GONG Y H.Research on precipitation spatial-temporal regulation and drought prediction in Middle-Lower Hanjiang River Basin[J].Environmental Engineering,2016,34(2):150-154.
[7] 陈燕飞,熊刚,刘伟.基于标准化降水指数的汉江流域干旱时空分布特征[J].中国农村水利水电,2016(4):82-88.CHEN Y F,XIONG G,LIU W.Drought temporal and spatial distribution of Hanjiang River Basin based on the standardized precipitation index[J].China Rural Water and Hydropower,2016 (4):82-88.
[8] 陈华,郭靖,郭生练,等.应用统计学降尺度方法预测汉江流域降水变化[J].人民长江,2008,39(14):53-55.CHEN H,GUO J,GUO S L,et al.Application of statistical downscaling method in precipitation prediction for the Hanjiang River Basin[J].Yangtze River,2008,39(14):53-55.
[9] 郭靖,郭生练,陈华,等.ANN统计降尺度法对汉江流域降水变化预测[J].武汉大学学报(工学版) ,2010,43(2):148-152.GUO J,GUO S L,CHEN H,et al.Prediction of changes of precipitation in Hanjiang River Basin using statistical downscaling method based on ANN[J].Engineering Journal of Wuhan University,2010,43(2):148-152.
[10] 刘俸霞,王艳君,赵晶,等.全球升温1.5℃与2.0℃情景下长江中下游地区极端降水的变化特征[J].长江流域资源与环境,2017,26(5):778-788.LIU F X,WANG Y J,ZHAO J,et al.Variations of the extreme precipitation under the global warming of 1.5℃ and 2.0℃ in the Mid-Lower Reaches of Yangtze River Basin[J].Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2017,26(5):778-788.
[11] SU B D,HUANG J L,ZENG X F,et al.Impact of climate change on streamflow in the Upper Yangtze River Basin[J].Climate change,2017,141(3):533-546.
[12] KAMALI B,HOUSHMAND KOUCHI D,YANG H,et al.Multilevel drought hazard assessment under climate change scenarios in Semi-Arid Regions:A case study of the Karkheh River Basin in Iran[J].Water,2017,9(4),241.
[13] 杨卫,张利平,闪丽洁,等.汉江流域极端水文事件时空分布特征[J].气候变化研究进展,2015,11(1):15-21.YANG W,ZHANG L P,SHAN L J,et al.Spatiotemporal distribution features of extreme hydrological events in the Hanjiang River Basin[J].Progressus Inquisitiones de Mutatione Climatis,2015,11(1):15-21.
[14] 张洪刚,王辉,徐德龙,等.汉江上游降水径流变化趋势研究[J].长江科学院院报,2007,24(5):27-30.ZHANG H G ,WANG H,XU D L,et al.Changing tendency of water resources for Upper Hanjiang River[J].Journal of Yangtze River Scientific Research Institute,2007,24(5):27-30.
[15] 李凌程,张利平,夏军,等.气候波动和人类活动对南水北调中线工程典型流域径流影响的定量评估[J].气候变化研究进展,2014,10(2):118-126.LI L C,ZHANG L P,XIA J,et al.Quantitative assessment of impacts of climate variability and human activities on runoff change in the typical basin of the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project[J].Journal of Yangtze River Scientific Research Institute,2014,10(2):118-126.
[16] 高永年,高俊峰.南水北调中线工程对汉江中下游流域生态环境影响的综合评价[J].地理科学进展,2010,29(1):59-64.GAO Y N,GAO J F.Comprehensive assessment of eco-environment impact of the South-to-North Water Transfer Middle Route[J].Progress in Geography,2010,29(1):59-64.
[17] 周月华,王海军,高贤来.近531年长江上中游与汉江流域水资源变化的初步研究[J].高原气象,2006(4):744-749.ZHOU Y H,WANG H J,GAO X L.Study on changes of water resources in Hanjiang and Upper and Mid Reaches of Yangtze River Valley in recent 531 Years[J].Plateau Meteorology,2006(4):744-749.
[18] McKEE T B,DOESKEN N J,KLEIST J.The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales[R].California:Eighth Conference on Applied Climatology.American Meteorological Society,1993:179-184.
[19] 中华人民共和国国家质量监督检验检疫总局,中国国家标准化管理委员会.气象干旱等级:GB/T20481-2017[S].北京:中国标准出版社,2017.General Administration of Quality Supervision,Inspection and Quarantine of the People’s Republic of China,Standardization Administration of the People’s Republic of China.Meteorological Drought GB/T20481-2017[S].Beijing:Standards Press of China,2017.
[20] CHEN S,SHIN J Y,KIM T W,Probabilistic forecasting of drought:a hidden Markov model aggregated with the RCP8.5 precipitation[J].Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment,2017,31(5):1061-1076.
[2] 沈永平,王国亚.IPCC第一工作组第五次评估报告对全球气候变化认知的最新科学要点[J].冰川冻土,2013,35(5):1068-1076.SHENG Y P,WANG Y G.Key findings and assessment results of IPCC WGI fifth assessment report[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2013,35(5):1068-1076.
[3] 宋连春,邓振镛,董安祥,等.干旱[M].北京:气象出版社,2003:14-55.SONG L C,DENG Z Y,DONG A X,et al.Drought[M].Beijing:China Meteorological Press,2003:14-55.
[4] 杨金虎,张强,王劲松,等.近60年来西南地区旱涝变化及极端和持续性特征认识[J].地理科学,2015,35(10):1333-1340.YANG J H,ZHANG Q,WANG J S,et al.Extreme and persistent feature of drought and flood of Southwest China in past 60 years[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2015,35(10):1333-1340.
[5] 孟婵,殷淑燕.汉江上游近50年降水序列变化及其干旱预测研究[J].农业现代化研究,2012,33(1):125-128.MENG C,YIN S Y.Precipitation change and occurrence of rainstorms and floods in Upper Reaches of Hanjiang River during last 50 years[J].Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,33(1):125-128.
[6] 张逸飞,张中旺,龚佑海.汉江中下游流域降水时空规律分析及干旱预测[J].环境工程,2016,34(2):150-154.ZHANG Y F,ZHANG Z W,GONG Y H.Research on precipitation spatial-temporal regulation and drought prediction in Middle-Lower Hanjiang River Basin[J].Environmental Engineering,2016,34(2):150-154.
[7] 陈燕飞,熊刚,刘伟.基于标准化降水指数的汉江流域干旱时空分布特征[J].中国农村水利水电,2016(4):82-88.CHEN Y F,XIONG G,LIU W.Drought temporal and spatial distribution of Hanjiang River Basin based on the standardized precipitation index[J].China Rural Water and Hydropower,2016 (4):82-88.
[8] 陈华,郭靖,郭生练,等.应用统计学降尺度方法预测汉江流域降水变化[J].人民长江,2008,39(14):53-55.CHEN H,GUO J,GUO S L,et al.Application of statistical downscaling method in precipitation prediction for the Hanjiang River Basin[J].Yangtze River,2008,39(14):53-55.
[9] 郭靖,郭生练,陈华,等.ANN统计降尺度法对汉江流域降水变化预测[J].武汉大学学报(工学版) ,2010,43(2):148-152.GUO J,GUO S L,CHEN H,et al.Prediction of changes of precipitation in Hanjiang River Basin using statistical downscaling method based on ANN[J].Engineering Journal of Wuhan University,2010,43(2):148-152.
[10] 刘俸霞,王艳君,赵晶,等.全球升温1.5℃与2.0℃情景下长江中下游地区极端降水的变化特征[J].长江流域资源与环境,2017,26(5):778-788.LIU F X,WANG Y J,ZHAO J,et al.Variations of the extreme precipitation under the global warming of 1.5℃ and 2.0℃ in the Mid-Lower Reaches of Yangtze River Basin[J].Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2017,26(5):778-788.
[11] SU B D,HUANG J L,ZENG X F,et al.Impact of climate change on streamflow in the Upper Yangtze River Basin[J].Climate change,2017,141(3):533-546.
[12] KAMALI B,HOUSHMAND KOUCHI D,YANG H,et al.Multilevel drought hazard assessment under climate change scenarios in Semi-Arid Regions:A case study of the Karkheh River Basin in Iran[J].Water,2017,9(4),241.
[13] 杨卫,张利平,闪丽洁,等.汉江流域极端水文事件时空分布特征[J].气候变化研究进展,2015,11(1):15-21.YANG W,ZHANG L P,SHAN L J,et al.Spatiotemporal distribution features of extreme hydrological events in the Hanjiang River Basin[J].Progressus Inquisitiones de Mutatione Climatis,2015,11(1):15-21.
[14] 张洪刚,王辉,徐德龙,等.汉江上游降水径流变化趋势研究[J].长江科学院院报,2007,24(5):27-30.ZHANG H G ,WANG H,XU D L,et al.Changing tendency of water resources for Upper Hanjiang River[J].Journal of Yangtze River Scientific Research Institute,2007,24(5):27-30.
[15] 李凌程,张利平,夏军,等.气候波动和人类活动对南水北调中线工程典型流域径流影响的定量评估[J].气候变化研究进展,2014,10(2):118-126.LI L C,ZHANG L P,XIA J,et al.Quantitative assessment of impacts of climate variability and human activities on runoff change in the typical basin of the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project[J].Journal of Yangtze River Scientific Research Institute,2014,10(2):118-126.
[16] 高永年,高俊峰.南水北调中线工程对汉江中下游流域生态环境影响的综合评价[J].地理科学进展,2010,29(1):59-64.GAO Y N,GAO J F.Comprehensive assessment of eco-environment impact of the South-to-North Water Transfer Middle Route[J].Progress in Geography,2010,29(1):59-64.
[17] 周月华,王海军,高贤来.近531年长江上中游与汉江流域水资源变化的初步研究[J].高原气象,2006(4):744-749.ZHOU Y H,WANG H J,GAO X L.Study on changes of water resources in Hanjiang and Upper and Mid Reaches of Yangtze River Valley in recent 531 Years[J].Plateau Meteorology,2006(4):744-749.
[18] McKEE T B,DOESKEN N J,KLEIST J.The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales[R].California:Eighth Conference on Applied Climatology.American Meteorological Society,1993:179-184.
[19] 中华人民共和国国家质量监督检验检疫总局,中国国家标准化管理委员会.气象干旱等级:GB/T20481-2017[S].北京:中国标准出版社,2017.General Administration of Quality Supervision,Inspection and Quarantine of the People’s Republic of China,Standardization Administration of the People’s Republic of China.Meteorological Drought GB/T20481-2017[S].Beijing:Standards Press of China,2017.
[20] CHEN S,SHIN J Y,KIM T W,Probabilistic forecasting of drought:a hidden Markov model aggregated with the RCP8.5 precipitation[J].Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment,2017,31(5):1061-1076.