人口集聚、产业集聚与环境污染的时空演化及关联性分析
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摘要
为探究人口和产业集聚对环境污染的不同影响,基于我国2000-2015年30个省区面板数据,利用空间相关性检验和回归分析模型,在描述人口集聚、产业集聚、生产污染和生活污染的时空演化趋势基础上,全面考察了人口集聚和产业集聚对生产和生活污染的不同影响及差异。结果表明,人口和产业快速集聚对生产和生活带来不同的环境污染效应。省域间的生产污染具有明显的空间集聚特点,生活污染空间分布较为随机。虽然人口规模的增大加重生产和生活污染,但人口集聚并没有加剧污染,反而有利于环境的改善。产业集聚加剧了生产污染,对生活污染的影响并不显著。与单纯降低工业比重相比,促进工业内部结构优化更能抑制生产污染。生产污染符合环境库茨涅茨曲线,但经济增长并不能自动解决所有的环境问题,尤其很难解决由生活消费所引致的生活污染问题。最后,提出在注重生产污染治理的同时,强调人口集聚在生活污染治理中的作用机制。
In order to explore the different impacts of population and industrial agglomeration on environmental pollution based on the panel data of 30 provinces regions in China from 2000 to 2015,the spatial correlation test and regression analysis model were used to describe the different pollution impacts of population & industrial agglomeration. The results show that in the accelerating process of urbanization in China,rapid population and industrial agglomeration brought different environmental pollution effects on production and life. There was significant spatial similarity between the production pollution in the province,with obvious spatial aggregation characteristics. The spatial distribution of domestic pollution was more random. Although the increase in population aggravated the production and domestic pollution,population agglomeration did not aggravate the pollution but instead helped to improve the environment. Industrial agglomeration exacerbated the production of pollution,but the impact on domestic pollution was not significant. Compared with the simple reduction of the industrial proportion,the optimization of the internal structure of the industry could further inhibit the production pollution. Production pollution was in line with the environmental Kuznets curve,but economic growth did not automatically solve all environmental problems,and it was particularly difficult to solve the problem of domestic pollution caused by consumption. At the same time,it puts emphasis on the mechanism of population concentration in the treatment of domestic pollution while paying attention to the production pollution control.
In order to explore the different impacts of population and industrial agglomeration on environmental pollution based on the panel data of 30 provinces regions in China from 2000 to 2015,the spatial correlation test and regression analysis model were used to describe the different pollution impacts of population & industrial agglomeration. The results show that in the accelerating process of urbanization in China,rapid population and industrial agglomeration brought different environmental pollution effects on production and life. There was significant spatial similarity between the production pollution in the province,with obvious spatial aggregation characteristics. The spatial distribution of domestic pollution was more random. Although the increase in population aggravated the production and domestic pollution,population agglomeration did not aggravate the pollution but instead helped to improve the environment. Industrial agglomeration exacerbated the production of pollution,but the impact on domestic pollution was not significant. Compared with the simple reduction of the industrial proportion,the optimization of the internal structure of the industry could further inhibit the production pollution. Production pollution was in line with the environmental Kuznets curve,but economic growth did not automatically solve all environmental problems,and it was particularly difficult to solve the problem of domestic pollution caused by consumption. At the same time,it puts emphasis on the mechanism of population concentration in the treatment of domestic pollution while paying attention to the production pollution control.
引文
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[21]李伟娜,杨永福,王珍珍.制造业集聚、大气污染与节能减排[J].经济管理,2010,32(9):36-44.
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[26]Grossman G M,Krueger A B. Economic growth and the environment[J]. The Quarterly Journal of Economics,1995,110(2):353-377.
[2]Andreoni J,Levinson A. The simple analytics of the environmental Kuznets curve[J]. Public Economics,2001,80(2):269-286.
[3]Brownstone D,Golob T F. The impact of residential density on vehicle usage and energy consumption[J]. Urban Economics,2009,65(1):91-98.
[4]Glaeser E L,KahnM E. The greenness of cities:carbon dioxide emissions and urban development[J]. Urban Economics,2010,67(3):404-418.
[5]陆铭,冯皓.集聚与减排:城市规模差距影响工业污染强度的经验研究[J].世界经济,2014(7):86-114.
[6]彭水军,包群.经济增长与环境污染-环境库兹涅茨曲线假说的我国检验[J].财经问题研究,2006(8):3-17.
[7]孙峰华,孙东琪,胡毅,等.中国人口对生态环境压力的变化格局:1990~2010[J].人口研究,2013,37(5):103-112.
[8]王芳,周兴.影响我国环境污染的人口因素研究-基于省际面板数据的实证分析[J].南方人口,2013(6):8-18.
[9]卢东斌,孟文强.城市化、工业化、地理脆弱性与环境质量的实证研究[J].财经问题研究,2009(2):22-28.
[10]肖周燕.中国人口空间聚集对生产和生活污染的影响差异[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2015,25(3):128-134.
[11]Virkanen J. Effect of urbanization on metal deposition in the bay of southern Finland[J]. Marine Pollution Bulletin,1998,36(9):729-738.
[12]Frank A. Urban air quality in larger conurbations in the European Union[J]. Environmental Modeling and Software,2001,16(4):399-414.
[13]Verhoef E T,Nijkamp P. Externalities in urban sustainability:environmental versus localization-type agglomeration externalities in a general spatial equilibrium model of a single sector moncentricindustrial city[J]. Ecological Economics,2002,40(2):157-179.
[14]苏静,胡宗义,唐李伟.我国能源-经济-环境(3E)系统协调度的地理空间分布与动态演进[J].经济地理,2013,33(9):19-24.
[15]刘满凤,谢晗进.中国省域经济集聚性与污染集聚性趋同研究[J].经济地理,2014,34(4):25-32.
[16]Feldman M P. The new economics of innovation,spillovers and agglomeration:a review of empirical studies[J]. Economics of Innovation and New Technology,1999,8(4):5-25.
[17]Hosoe M,Naito T. Trans-boundary pollution transmission and regional agglomeration effects[J]. Regional Science,2006,85(1):99-120.
[18]王海宁,陈媛媛.产业集聚效应与工业能源效率研究-基于中国25个工业行业的实证分析[J].财经研究,2010,36(9):69-79.
[19]李顺毅,王双进.产业集聚对我国工业污染排放影响的实证检验[J].统计与决策,2014(8):128-130.
[20]张可,豆建民.集聚对环境污染的作用机制研究[J].中国人口科学,2013(5):105-116.
[21]李伟娜,杨永福,王珍珍.制造业集聚、大气污染与节能减排[J].经济管理,2010,32(9):36-44.
[22]沈能.工业集聚能改善环境效率吗?-基于中国城市数据的空间非线性检验[J].管理工程学报,2014,28(3):57-63.
[23]李筱乐.市场化、工业集聚和环境污染的实证分析[J].统计研究,2014,31(8):39-45.
[24]Dietz T,Rosa E A. Effects of population and affluence on CO2emissions[J]Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the USA,1997.94(1):175-179.
[25]York R,Rosa E A,Dietz T. Bridging environmental science with environmental policy:plasticity of population,affluence and technology[J].Social Science Quarterly,2002,83(1):18-34.
[26]Grossman G M,Krueger A B. Economic growth and the environment[J]. The Quarterly Journal of Economics,1995,110(2):353-377.