南昌市PM_(2.5)与其他大气污染物的关系研究
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摘要
选取2015—2018年南昌市月度空气质量数据,采用向量误差修正模型(VECM)分析PM_(2.5)与其他大气污染物之间的动态关系,并运用脉冲响应函数和方差分解两种方法分析其他大气污染物对PM_(2.5)的长短期冲击影响。结果发现:PM_(10)、SO_2、CO、NO_2、O_3对PM_(2.5)浓度的影响存在一定的滞后性,且SO_2、CO、NO_2浓度的增加在短期内会引起PM_(2.5)浓度增加,而PM_(10)、O_3浓度的增加对PM_(2.5)浓度产生一定的抑制影响。鉴于此,建立严格的空气质量监控体系,调整产业结构等都有利于缓解空气污染。
Based on the monthly air quality data of Nanchang from 2015 to 2018,a vector error correction model(VECM)was used to analyze the dynamic relationship between PM_(2.5)and other air pollutants.At the same time,pulse response function and variance decomposition were used to analyze the impact of other air pollutants on PM_(2.5)in the short and long term.The results showed that the impact of PM_(10),SO_2,CO,NO_2,and O_3on the concentration of PM_(2.5)is delayed to a certain extent,and the rise of SO_2,CO and NO_2concentration will cause the rise of PM_(2.5)in a short period.However,the increase of PM_(10)and O_3concentration has a certain inhibitory effect on the concentration of PM_(2.5).In view of this,establishing strict air quality monitoring system,adjusting industrial structure and so on are beneficial to the mitigation of air pollution.
Based on the monthly air quality data of Nanchang from 2015 to 2018,a vector error correction model(VECM)was used to analyze the dynamic relationship between PM_(2.5)and other air pollutants.At the same time,pulse response function and variance decomposition were used to analyze the impact of other air pollutants on PM_(2.5)in the short and long term.The results showed that the impact of PM_(10),SO_2,CO,NO_2,and O_3on the concentration of PM_(2.5)is delayed to a certain extent,and the rise of SO_2,CO and NO_2concentration will cause the rise of PM_(2.5)in a short period.However,the increase of PM_(10)and O_3concentration has a certain inhibitory effect on the concentration of PM_(2.5).In view of this,establishing strict air quality monitoring system,adjusting industrial structure and so on are beneficial to the mitigation of air pollution.
引文
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[3]单宁宁,陈莹玮.2013—2017年秦皇岛市环境空气质量变化趋势研究[J].中国环境管理干部学院学报,2018,28(6):75-78.
[4]韩立建.城市化与PM2.5时空格局演变及其影响因素的研究进展[J].地理科学进展,2018,37(8):1011-1021.
[5]谭文津.气像条件对南昌市PM2.5浓度的影响分析[J].环境科学导刊,2017,36(5):44-46.
[6]张洁琼,王雅倩,高爽,等.不同时间尺度气象要素与空气污染关系的KZ滤波研究[J].中国环境科学,2018,38(10):3662-3672.
[7]GüNDüZ O.Effect of exchange rate on dried apricot export in Turkey:a vector autoregression(VAR)analysis[J].African Journal of Agricultural Research,2010,5(18):2485-2490.
[8]JOHANSEN S.Estimation and Hypothesis testing of cointegration vectors in gaussian vector autoregressive models[J].Econometrica,1991,59(6):1551-1580.