大型活动对地区电力消耗变动影响分析——以金砖会议为例
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摘要
我国城市在重大活动期间,生产限制活动对该地区电力消耗会产生急剧的影响,提前识别相关活动可能带来的电力消耗波动,可为该地区电力供应企业提前优化其管理决策提供可能。采用投入产出法,基于福建省与厦门市投入产出数据,以2017年金砖会议为例,预测了会议前后厦门与福建由于区域宏观政策影响所带来的电力消耗变动情形,并将预测结果与活动前后实际波动情况进行了对比。对比结果显示,基于投入产出分析获得的预测分析结果可在一定程度上准确反应区域短期电力波动情况,但数据时滞性会对研究的准确性带来较大的影响。
The production restriction activities during major urban events in China have a drastic impact on regional electricity consumption. Identifying the fluctuations in electricity consumption that may be caused by related activities in advance can provide a possibility for regional power supply providers to optimize their management decisions in advance. This study uses the inputoutput method based on the input-output table data of Fujian Province and Xiamen City. Taking the 2017 BRICS Conference as an example, it forecasts the changes in electricity consumption caused by regional macroeconomic policies in Xiamen and Fujian before and after the meeting, and the forecast results are compared with actual fluctuations before and after the activity. The comparison results show that the results of the change forecasting analysis based on input-output analysis can accurately reflect the regional shortterm power fluctuations to a certain extent, but the data hysteresis can impact the accuracy of the study.
The production restriction activities during major urban events in China have a drastic impact on regional electricity consumption. Identifying the fluctuations in electricity consumption that may be caused by related activities in advance can provide a possibility for regional power supply providers to optimize their management decisions in advance. This study uses the inputoutput method based on the input-output table data of Fujian Province and Xiamen City. Taking the 2017 BRICS Conference as an example, it forecasts the changes in electricity consumption caused by regional macroeconomic policies in Xiamen and Fujian before and after the meeting, and the forecast results are compared with actual fluctuations before and after the activity. The comparison results show that the results of the change forecasting analysis based on input-output analysis can accurately reflect the regional shortterm power fluctuations to a certain extent, but the data hysteresis can impact the accuracy of the study.
引文
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[2]王满,王浩亮.船舶电力系统仿真[J].大连海事大学学报,2011,37(1):35-38.
[3]陈炎,王锡淮,肖健梅.电力系统节能控制器设计与仿真[J].计算机仿真,2016,33(11):92-95.
[4]徐毅,张二震.FDI、外包与技术创新:基于投入产出表数据的经验研究[J].世界经济,2008(9):41-48.
[5]沈利生,吴振宇.出口对中国GDP增长的贡献——基于投入产出表的实证分析[J].经济研究,2003(11):33-41.
[6]尧云珍,周伟,洪林凤.我国建筑业改征增值税研究——基于投入产出表的测算分析[J].金融与经济,2012(8):45-49.
[7]叶安宁,张敏.前向关联测度——基于中国各省投入产出表分析[J].科技和产业,2010,10(12):38-44.
[8]谭显东,单葆国,徐敏杰.基于投入产出法的中长期电力需求模拟[J].中国电力,2010,43(1):1-4.
[9]王海建.经济结构变动与能源需求的投入产出分析[J].统计研究,1999,16(6):30-34.
[10]方志强,张在琛,胡成博,等.基于长短期记忆网络的售电量预测模型研究[J].电力工程技术,2018,37(3):78-83