基于生产力及城镇化布局的省级长期电力需求分布预测
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摘要
准确把握省级电网长期电力需求,尤其电力需求在各区域分布,对省级电网合理规划和网架优化具有重要的前瞻性指导作用。文章构建了基于生产力及城镇化布局的省级长期电力需求分布预测模型,并以安徽为例,预测了2030年安徽全社会用电量在各地市分布,结果显示:该模型实现了从全省电力需求到各区域电力需求的科学有效衔接,且预测结果相较于一般占比预测方法更为科学合理。对电力市场分析及电网规划人员合理预测省级长期电力需求分布、实现前瞻性电网规划具有一定的参考价值。
Accurately mastering the provincial gird' s long-term power demand,especially its distribution in each region,can provide an important and prospective guide in provincial gird's rational planning and network optimization. A forecasting model of provincial grid's long-term power demand distribution based on productivity and urbanization allocation is established. By taking Anhui province as an instance,this paper forecasts the distribution of Anhui' s whole society power consumption in each city. The results demonstrate that this model not only realizes the scientific and effective connection from provincial power demand to that of each region,but also its forecasting results are more scientific and rational than common proportion method. This paper is of a certain reference value for market analysts and grid planners in rationally forecasting long-term power demand distribution and realizing gird's prospective planning.
Accurately mastering the provincial gird' s long-term power demand,especially its distribution in each region,can provide an important and prospective guide in provincial gird's rational planning and network optimization. A forecasting model of provincial grid's long-term power demand distribution based on productivity and urbanization allocation is established. By taking Anhui province as an instance,this paper forecasts the distribution of Anhui' s whole society power consumption in each city. The results demonstrate that this model not only realizes the scientific and effective connection from provincial power demand to that of each region,but also its forecasting results are more scientific and rational than common proportion method. This paper is of a certain reference value for market analysts and grid planners in rationally forecasting long-term power demand distribution and realizing gird's prospective planning.
引文
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[2]牛彦涛,王辉.结合误差校正的北京市中长期电力需求预测[J].现代电力,2011,28(1):90-94.
[3]谭显东,单葆国,徐敏杰.基于投入产出法的中长期电力需求模拟[J].中国电力,2010,43(1):1-4.
[4]徐敏杰,胡兆光,谭显东,等.中国中长期能源和电力需求及碳排放情景分析[J].中国电力,2012,45(4):101-107.
[5]黄建.基于LEAP的中国电力需求情景及其不确定性分析[J].资源科学,2012,34(11):2124-2132.
[6]刘贞,朱开伟,蒲刚清.基于LEAP模型的电力需求侧碳减排潜力分析[J].电力建设,2014,35(6):153-159.
[7]高虎,梁志鹏,庄幸.LEAP模型在可再生能源规划中的应用[J].中国能源,2004,26(10):40-43.
[8]秦浩庭,刘燕,肖汉,等.重庆市中长期电力需求及分布预测[J].电力建设,2015,36(4):115-122.
[9]范德成,王韶华,张伟.低碳经济目标下我国电力需求预测研究[J].电网技术,2012,36(7):19-25.
[10]肖欣,周渝慧,张宁,等.城镇化进程与电力需求增长的关系研究[J].中国电力,2015,48(2):145-149.