中国钢铁长期需求模拟及产能过剩态势评估
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摘要
本文采用社会经济系统物质流分析方法,构建中国钢铁物质代谢核算模型。采用"以流量估算存量"的方法,建立了中国钢铁产品流量和在用存量的历史时间序列数据;并采用"以存量估算流量"的情景分析方法,递推计算了钢铁产品国内需求的长期趋势。结果显示,2014年中国人均钢铁在用存量达到4.57 t,已经接近发达国家饱和水平的一半。全部在用存量平均寿命期35年、人均存量饱和水平12 t的中情景不仅可以较好地再现历史趋势,也符合当前绿色发展和资源集约利用的政策趋势,未来出现的可能性较大。该情景下,钢铁最终产品国内消费量在2020年达到6.7亿t的峰值,2040年下降至4.2亿t。假定进出口比重和加工损耗率维持2012—2014年平均水平不变,则对应的粗钢产量峰值约为9.0亿t,表观消费量峰值约为8.3亿t。按照目前钢铁行业化解产能过剩的任务要求,到2020年粗钢产能将缩减至10~10.5亿t,届时产能利用率有望回升至80%以上。但长期来看,随着本世纪中叶中国城市化进程基本完成,人均钢铁存量趋向饱和,国内需求下滑的趋势无法改变,钢铁产能过剩将是一个长期问题。化解产能过剩矛盾必须从需求和供给两方面同时入手。本文提出将粗钢产能压减的中远期政策调控目标设定为2030年9亿t、2040年7.5亿t左右,这样既能满足国内需求,又可保持较高的产能利用率,同时向国际市场提供1~1.5亿t净出口,从而在缓解国内供给过剩和减少出口贸易摩擦之间寻求平衡。
In this paper,we established a dynamic material flow analysis model of iron and steel for China. Historical steel flows and steel in-use stocks in China were modeled based on the‘flow drives stock'method. Long-term trends of demand for final steel products were then simulated by the ‘stock drives flow'method. Results show that per capita in-use stock of steel in China reached 4. 57 tons in 2014,approaching half of the saturation level in industrialized countries. The middle scenario which assumes an average lifespan of in-use stocks of 35 years and a per capita saturation level of 12 tons can not only fit the historical data well,but also reflect current policy trend of promoting green development and resources efficiency. Under this scenario,domestic final consumption of steel products will peak at 0. 67 billion tons in 2020,and then decline to 0. 42 billion tons in 2040. If assuming the import and export structure and the rate of fabrication loss remain unchanged at the average level of 2012-2014,the corresponding peak of crude iron production and apparent consumption will be 0. 9 billion tons and 0. 83 tons,respectively. According to the current policy of eliminating over-capacity in steel industry,China's crude iron production capacity is expected to be reduced to 1 ~ 1. 05 billion tons in 2020. If so,the utilization rate of production capacity will rise to more than 80% again. However,from a long-term perspective,as China 's urbanization process is expected to be nearly finished in the middle 21 stcentury,the continuous decline of domestic demand is unavoidable. Therefore,over-capacity in China's iron and steel industry is a long-term problem. Both demand side and supply side efforts are needed to solve this problem. We propose that the mid-to-long term targets of production capacity control can be set as 0. 9 billion tons in 2030 and 0. 75 billion tons in 2040. Under such scenario,triple targets can be achieved,i. e.,satisfying domestic demand,keeping relatively high capacity utilization rate,and keeping net export of steel products at around 0. 1 ~ 0. 15 billion tons so as to reduce international trade disputes.
In this paper,we established a dynamic material flow analysis model of iron and steel for China. Historical steel flows and steel in-use stocks in China were modeled based on the‘flow drives stock'method. Long-term trends of demand for final steel products were then simulated by the ‘stock drives flow'method. Results show that per capita in-use stock of steel in China reached 4. 57 tons in 2014,approaching half of the saturation level in industrialized countries. The middle scenario which assumes an average lifespan of in-use stocks of 35 years and a per capita saturation level of 12 tons can not only fit the historical data well,but also reflect current policy trend of promoting green development and resources efficiency. Under this scenario,domestic final consumption of steel products will peak at 0. 67 billion tons in 2020,and then decline to 0. 42 billion tons in 2040. If assuming the import and export structure and the rate of fabrication loss remain unchanged at the average level of 2012-2014,the corresponding peak of crude iron production and apparent consumption will be 0. 9 billion tons and 0. 83 tons,respectively. According to the current policy of eliminating over-capacity in steel industry,China's crude iron production capacity is expected to be reduced to 1 ~ 1. 05 billion tons in 2020. If so,the utilization rate of production capacity will rise to more than 80% again. However,from a long-term perspective,as China 's urbanization process is expected to be nearly finished in the middle 21 stcentury,the continuous decline of domestic demand is unavoidable. Therefore,over-capacity in China's iron and steel industry is a long-term problem. Both demand side and supply side efforts are needed to solve this problem. We propose that the mid-to-long term targets of production capacity control can be set as 0. 9 billion tons in 2030 and 0. 75 billion tons in 2040. Under such scenario,triple targets can be achieved,i. e.,satisfying domestic demand,keeping relatively high capacity utilization rate,and keeping net export of steel products at around 0. 1 ~ 0. 15 billion tons so as to reduce international trade disputes.
引文
[1]张林.中国式产能过剩问题研究综述[J].经济学动态,2016(9):90-100.[ZHANG Lin.A review of the problem of overcapacity in China[J].Economic perspectives,2016(9):90-100.]
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[5]干春晖,邹俊,王健.地方官员任期、企业资源获取与产能过剩[J].中国工业经济,2015(3):44-56.[GAN Chunhui,ZOUJun,WANG Jian.Political turnover,enterprise resources acquirement and overcapacity[J].China industrial economics,2015(3):44-56.]
[6]刘航,孙早.城镇化动因扭曲与制造业产能过剩---基于2001-2012年中国省级面板数据的经验分析[J].中国工业经济,2014(11):5-17.[LIU Hang,SUN Zao.The distortion of urbanization motivation and over-capacity in manufacture sectors:empirical analysis based on provincial panel data 2001-2012[J].China industrial economics,2014(11):5-17.]
[7]张群,冯梅,于可慧.中国钢铁产业产能过剩的影响因素分析[J].数理统计与管理,2014,33(2):191-202.[ZHANG Qun,FENG Mei,YU Kehui.The analysis of influencing factors in Chinese iron and steel industry overcapacity[J].Journal of applied statistics and management,2014,33(2):191-202.]
[8]林毅夫,巫和懋,邢亦青.“潮涌现象”与产能过剩的形成机制[J].经济研究,2010,10(4):4-19.[LIN Yifu,WU Hemao,XING Yiqing.‘Wave phenomena’and formation of excess capacity[J].Economic research journal,2010,10(4):4-19.]
[9]高芯蕊,王安建.基于“S”规律的中国钢铁需求预测[J].地球学报,2010(5):645-652.[GAO Xinrui,WANG Anjian.The prediction of China’s steel demand based on S-shaped regularity[J].Acta geoscientica sinica.2010(5):645-652.]
[10]WARELL L.Trends and developments in long-term steel demand:the intensity-of-use hypothesis revisited[J].Resources policy,2014,39:134-143.
[11]倪中新,卢星,薛文骏.“一带一路”战略能够化解我国过剩的钢铁产能吗---基于时变参数向量自回归模型平均的预测[J].国际贸易问题,2016(3):161-174.[NI Zhongxin,LUXing,XUE Wenjun.Can‘One Belt One Road’strategy relieve China’s excess iron and steel capacity:prediction based on TVP-VAR model[J].Journal of international trade,2016(3):161-174.]
[12]孙小军.影响我国钢材需求量的因素分析[J].社会科学前沿,2017,6(4):441-451.[SUN Xiaojun.Analysis the influence factors of steel demand in China[J].Advances in social sciences,2017,6(4):441-451.]
[13]PAULIUK S,WANG T,MULLER D B.Moving toward the circular economy:the role of stocks in the Chinese steel cycle[J].Environmental science&technology,2012,46:148-154.
[14]CHEN W Q,GRAEDEL T E.Dynamic analysis of aluminum stocks and flows in the United States:1900-2009[J].Ecological economics,2012,81:92-102.
[15]MULLER D B,WANG T,DUVAL B.Patterns of iron use in societal evolution[J].Environmental science&technology,2011,45:182-188.
[16]EUROSTAT.Material flow accounts and resource productivity[R].2015.
[17]FISCHER-KOWALSKI M,KRAUSMANN F,GILJUM S,et al.Methodology and indicators of economy-wide material flow accounting state of the art and reliability across sources[J].Journal of industrial ecology,2011,15:855-876.
[18]KRAUSMANN F,GINGRICH S,EISENMENGER N,et al.Growth in global materials use,GDP and population during the 20th century[J].Ecological economics,2009,68:2696-2705.
[19]WEISZ H,KRAUSMANN F,EISENMENGER N,et al.Economywide material flow accounting:a compilation guide[R].2007.
[20]MULLER E,HILTY L M,WIDMER R,et al.Modeling metal stocks and flows:a review of dynamic material flow analysis methods[J].Environmental science&technology,2014,48:2102-2113.
[21]CHEN W Q,GRAEDEL T E.Anthropogenic cycles of the elements:a critical review[J].Environmental science&technology,2012,46:8574-8586.
[22]GERST M D,GRAEDEL T E.In-Use stocks of metals:status and implications[J].Environmental science&technology,2008,42:7038-7045.
[23]MULLER D B,WANG T,DUVAL B,et al.Exploring the engine of anthropogenic iron cycles[J].Proceedings of the National Academy of Science of the USA,2006,103:16111-16116.
[24]GLOSER S,SOULIER M,TERCERO E.Dynamic analysis of global copper flows:global stocks,postconsumer material flows,recycling indicators,and uncertainty evaluation[J].Environmental science&technology,2013,47:6564-6572.
[25]LIU G,MULLER D B.Centennial evolution of aluminum in-use stocks on our aluminized planet[J].Environmental science&technology,2013,47:4882-4888.
[26]PAULIUK S,WANG T,MULLER D B.Steel all over the world:estimating in-use stocks of iron for 200 countries[J].Resources,conservation and recycling,2013,71:22-30.
[27]CHEN W Q,GRAEDEL T E.In-use product stocks link manufactured capital to natural capital[J].Proceedings of the National Academy of Science of the USA,2015,112:6265-6270.
[28]CAI W,WAN L,JIANG Y,et al.Short-Lived buildings in China:impacts on water,energy,and carbon emissions[J].Environmental science&technology,2015,49:13921-13928.
[29]United Nations.World population prospects:the 2015 revision[R].2015.
[30]何传启.中国现代化报告2013---城市现代化研究[M].北京:北京大学出版,2014.[HE Chuanqi.Report on the modernization of China 2013:study on urban modernization[M].Beijing:Peking University Press,2014.]
[31]World Steel Association.Steel Statistical Yearbooks 2016[S].2016.
[32]查贵勇.2015对华贸易救济调查大盘点[N].国际商报,2016-01-20(2).[CHA Guiyong.Trade remedy investigations against China in 2015[N].International Business Newspaper,2016-01-20(2).]
[2]冯梅,陈鹏.中国钢铁产业产能过剩程度的量化分析与预警[J].中国软科学,2013(5):110-116.[FENG Mei,CHEN Peng.Quantitative analysis and warning on the excess capacity of Chinese iron and steel industry[J].China soft science,2013(5):110-116.]
[3]杨振兵.有偏技术进步视角下中国工业产能过剩的影响因素分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究.2016(8):30-46.[YANGZhenbing.An analysis of the influencing factors of overcapacity of China’s industrial sectors under the perspective of the biased technical progress[J].The journal of quantitative&technical economics,2016(8):30-46.]
[4]程俊杰,刘志彪.产能过剩、要素扭曲与经济波动---来自制造业的经验证据[J].经济学家,2015(11):59-69.[CHENGJunjie,LIU Zhibiao.Over-capacity,factor price distortion and economic fluctuation:evidences from the manufacture sectors[J].Economist,2015(11):59-69.]
[5]干春晖,邹俊,王健.地方官员任期、企业资源获取与产能过剩[J].中国工业经济,2015(3):44-56.[GAN Chunhui,ZOUJun,WANG Jian.Political turnover,enterprise resources acquirement and overcapacity[J].China industrial economics,2015(3):44-56.]
[6]刘航,孙早.城镇化动因扭曲与制造业产能过剩---基于2001-2012年中国省级面板数据的经验分析[J].中国工业经济,2014(11):5-17.[LIU Hang,SUN Zao.The distortion of urbanization motivation and over-capacity in manufacture sectors:empirical analysis based on provincial panel data 2001-2012[J].China industrial economics,2014(11):5-17.]
[7]张群,冯梅,于可慧.中国钢铁产业产能过剩的影响因素分析[J].数理统计与管理,2014,33(2):191-202.[ZHANG Qun,FENG Mei,YU Kehui.The analysis of influencing factors in Chinese iron and steel industry overcapacity[J].Journal of applied statistics and management,2014,33(2):191-202.]
[8]林毅夫,巫和懋,邢亦青.“潮涌现象”与产能过剩的形成机制[J].经济研究,2010,10(4):4-19.[LIN Yifu,WU Hemao,XING Yiqing.‘Wave phenomena’and formation of excess capacity[J].Economic research journal,2010,10(4):4-19.]
[9]高芯蕊,王安建.基于“S”规律的中国钢铁需求预测[J].地球学报,2010(5):645-652.[GAO Xinrui,WANG Anjian.The prediction of China’s steel demand based on S-shaped regularity[J].Acta geoscientica sinica.2010(5):645-652.]
[10]WARELL L.Trends and developments in long-term steel demand:the intensity-of-use hypothesis revisited[J].Resources policy,2014,39:134-143.
[11]倪中新,卢星,薛文骏.“一带一路”战略能够化解我国过剩的钢铁产能吗---基于时变参数向量自回归模型平均的预测[J].国际贸易问题,2016(3):161-174.[NI Zhongxin,LUXing,XUE Wenjun.Can‘One Belt One Road’strategy relieve China’s excess iron and steel capacity:prediction based on TVP-VAR model[J].Journal of international trade,2016(3):161-174.]
[12]孙小军.影响我国钢材需求量的因素分析[J].社会科学前沿,2017,6(4):441-451.[SUN Xiaojun.Analysis the influence factors of steel demand in China[J].Advances in social sciences,2017,6(4):441-451.]
[13]PAULIUK S,WANG T,MULLER D B.Moving toward the circular economy:the role of stocks in the Chinese steel cycle[J].Environmental science&technology,2012,46:148-154.
[14]CHEN W Q,GRAEDEL T E.Dynamic analysis of aluminum stocks and flows in the United States:1900-2009[J].Ecological economics,2012,81:92-102.
[15]MULLER D B,WANG T,DUVAL B.Patterns of iron use in societal evolution[J].Environmental science&technology,2011,45:182-188.
[16]EUROSTAT.Material flow accounts and resource productivity[R].2015.
[17]FISCHER-KOWALSKI M,KRAUSMANN F,GILJUM S,et al.Methodology and indicators of economy-wide material flow accounting state of the art and reliability across sources[J].Journal of industrial ecology,2011,15:855-876.
[18]KRAUSMANN F,GINGRICH S,EISENMENGER N,et al.Growth in global materials use,GDP and population during the 20th century[J].Ecological economics,2009,68:2696-2705.
[19]WEISZ H,KRAUSMANN F,EISENMENGER N,et al.Economywide material flow accounting:a compilation guide[R].2007.
[20]MULLER E,HILTY L M,WIDMER R,et al.Modeling metal stocks and flows:a review of dynamic material flow analysis methods[J].Environmental science&technology,2014,48:2102-2113.
[21]CHEN W Q,GRAEDEL T E.Anthropogenic cycles of the elements:a critical review[J].Environmental science&technology,2012,46:8574-8586.
[22]GERST M D,GRAEDEL T E.In-Use stocks of metals:status and implications[J].Environmental science&technology,2008,42:7038-7045.
[23]MULLER D B,WANG T,DUVAL B,et al.Exploring the engine of anthropogenic iron cycles[J].Proceedings of the National Academy of Science of the USA,2006,103:16111-16116.
[24]GLOSER S,SOULIER M,TERCERO E.Dynamic analysis of global copper flows:global stocks,postconsumer material flows,recycling indicators,and uncertainty evaluation[J].Environmental science&technology,2013,47:6564-6572.
[25]LIU G,MULLER D B.Centennial evolution of aluminum in-use stocks on our aluminized planet[J].Environmental science&technology,2013,47:4882-4888.
[26]PAULIUK S,WANG T,MULLER D B.Steel all over the world:estimating in-use stocks of iron for 200 countries[J].Resources,conservation and recycling,2013,71:22-30.
[27]CHEN W Q,GRAEDEL T E.In-use product stocks link manufactured capital to natural capital[J].Proceedings of the National Academy of Science of the USA,2015,112:6265-6270.
[28]CAI W,WAN L,JIANG Y,et al.Short-Lived buildings in China:impacts on water,energy,and carbon emissions[J].Environmental science&technology,2015,49:13921-13928.
[29]United Nations.World population prospects:the 2015 revision[R].2015.
[30]何传启.中国现代化报告2013---城市现代化研究[M].北京:北京大学出版,2014.[HE Chuanqi.Report on the modernization of China 2013:study on urban modernization[M].Beijing:Peking University Press,2014.]
[31]World Steel Association.Steel Statistical Yearbooks 2016[S].2016.
[32]查贵勇.2015对华贸易救济调查大盘点[N].国际商报,2016-01-20(2).[CHA Guiyong.Trade remedy investigations against China in 2015[N].International Business Newspaper,2016-01-20(2).]