国产钾肥对国际钾肥市场定价权的影响
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摘要
在国际钾肥市场中,与其他完全依赖进口的钾肥消费国相比,中国具有一定水平的钾盐储备和钾肥产能,2013年以来中国对进口钾肥的依赖度维持在40%左右。文章基于静态市场均衡理论探讨了国内钾肥产量是否会对进口钾肥的价格造成影响,同时基于空间价格传导理论分析了国内与国际市场钾肥价格的传导路径。研究结果显示:1)中国钾肥产量每提高1%,主要销地市场和主要产地市场的钾肥价格会相应地下降12.6%～21.0%,这一结果在1%的统计水平上显著;2)中国国内钾肥价格与国际钾肥价格之间存在线性协整关系,在协整系统中,国内钾肥价格为弱外生序列,而国际钾肥价格为内生序列,即国产钾肥价格与国际钾肥价格之间存在单向传导机制。因此,我国应继续加大钾资源勘探力度,利用好国产钾肥对国际价格的传导机制和市场联动,保障国内钾肥的供应,提高中国在国际钾肥市场的竞争力。
Compared with those countries who completely depend on imported potash fertilizer in the global potash fertilizer market, China has specific reserve and production capacity in potash at about 40% dependence on imported since 2013. This paper uses static market balance theory to discuss the influence of domestic potash fertilizer on imported potash fertilizer's price and studies the conducting path of domestic and global potash fertilizer prices by means of spatial price conducting theory. China rises its production by 1%, the prices in the major markets will drop 12.6% to 21.0%, which is outstanding at the 1% statistic level. A co-integrated relation exists between China's domestic and global potash fertilizer prices with domestic price as weak exogenous order and global as endogenous order, meaning a one-way conducting mechanism between domestic and global potash fertilizer prices. This paper suggests China continue to boost potash resource exploration, fully use the conducting mechanism and market linkage of domestic potash fertilizer to global to guarantee the domestic potash fertilizer supply, and increases China's competitiveness in global potash fertilizer market.
Compared with those countries who completely depend on imported potash fertilizer in the global potash fertilizer market, China has specific reserve and production capacity in potash at about 40% dependence on imported since 2013. This paper uses static market balance theory to discuss the influence of domestic potash fertilizer on imported potash fertilizer's price and studies the conducting path of domestic and global potash fertilizer prices by means of spatial price conducting theory. China rises its production by 1%, the prices in the major markets will drop 12.6% to 21.0%, which is outstanding at the 1% statistic level. A co-integrated relation exists between China's domestic and global potash fertilizer prices with domestic price as weak exogenous order and global as endogenous order, meaning a one-way conducting mechanism between domestic and global potash fertilizer prices. This paper suggests China continue to boost potash resource exploration, fully use the conducting mechanism and market linkage of domestic potash fertilizer to global to guarantee the domestic potash fertilizer supply, and increases China's competitiveness in global potash fertilizer market.
引文
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[3] 鲍荣华, 亓昭英, 周大通. 钾盐资源及钾肥供需情况分析及预测[J]. 磷肥与复肥, 2013, 28(2): 1- 6
[4] US. Gedogical Survey. Mineral commodity sunnaries, 2017[EB/OL]. (2017- 01- 31)[2018- 11- 08]. https: //minerals. usgs. gov/minerals/pubs/mcs/2017/mcs2017.pdf
[5] International Fertilizer Association. Potash[EB/OL]. [2018- 11- 08]. https: //www. ifastat. org/ databases/supply-trade
[6] 汝小洁. 国际贸易定价权的获取[J]. 中国金属通报, 2005(2): 9- 11
[7] 白明. 从进口原油、 铁矿石和铜的贸易看我国如何取得国际定价权[J]. 中国物价, 2006(3): 23- 26
[8] 唐衍伟, 王逢宝, 张晨宏. 中国对大宗商品国际定价权的缺失及防范[J]. 决策参考, 2006(9): 43- 45
[9] 朱学红, 樊玉林, 钟美瑞. 优势稀有金属关税的替代性政策效果评价及对定价权的影响分析[J]. 国际贸易问题, 2016(12): 107- 118
[10] 雷岩, 郭振华. 利用“两个市场, 两种资源”实现钾盐全球配置[J]. 中国国土资源经济, 2012(4): 15- 19
[11] 赵子铭. 全球钾盐资源供求格局及钾肥市场价格走势[J]. 中国经贸导刊, 2013(12): 11- 13
[12] 王磊. 应对我国钾盐市场价格波动对策研究[J]. 价格理论与实践, 2012(2): 44- 45
[13] 吴永娇, 马海洲, 董锁成. 基于经济福利最大化理论的中国钾肥资源市场评价[J]. 资源科学, 2008(6): 815- 821
[14] 吴永娇, 马海洲, 董锁成, 等. 钾肥需求模拟研究[J]. 盐湖研究, 2008, 16(4): 42- 47
[15] 蔡敏, 曾路. 钾盐进口价格博弈分析[J]. 资源与产业, 2011, 13(2): 12- 15
[16] 牟思宇, 沙景华, 闫晶晶, 等. 中国钾盐供应安全的主成分-灰色关联分析[J]. 中国矿业, 2018, 27(3): 27- 38
[17] 恩德斯. 应用计量经济学: 时间序列分析[M]. 杜江, 谢志超, 译. 北京: 高等教育出版社, 2006