漳河上游径流变化特征及其归因分析
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摘要
基于漳河上游流域周边台站的气象水文数据,综合运用Mann-Kendall突变检测、Hurst指数、流量历时曲线和气候弹性系数法等,分析了流域径流的年际变化特征和年内格局变化,探讨了气候变化和人类活动对径流减少的作用。结果表明:1955-2016年,流域径流的年际变化呈显著减少趋势,减少率为0.316×10~8m~3/a。年径流序列在1973年发生突变,突变前径流的减少趋势显著,其主要原因可能是气候变化;突变后减少趋势有所减缓,其主要原因是人类活动,具体表现为1970s-1980s的水利工程建设和土地改革兴起,1990s之后的工农业用水激增和城镇化加速推进。突变前后各月平均径流减少十分显著,相对减少率均超过70%,径流年内分布更加趋于不均,季节变化差异加大。基于气候弹性系数法,气候变化和人类活动对径流减少的贡献率分别为29.7%和70.3%。
Based on the hydro-meteorological data around the upper reaches of Zhanghe river basin, combined with the methods of Mann-Kendall Mutation Test, Hurst Index, Flow Duration Curve and the Climatic Elasticity Coefficient, the inter-annual and intra-annual variation characteristics of runoff were analyzed, and the influence of climate change and human activities on runoff decrease were discussed. The results indicated that, during 1955-2016, the annual runoff series showed a significantly decreasing trend with an obvious abrupt change point at 1973, and decrease rate was 0.316×10~8m~3/a. The decreasing trend of runoff was significant during 1955-1973, and the main reason might be climate change. The decreasing trend slowed down during 1974-2016 due to human activities, which was embodied in the water conservancy projects and land reform from 1970s to 1980s, the increase of water consumption for industry/agriculture and the acceleration of urbanization after the 1990s. The monthly average runoff decreased significantly before and after the abrupt change year, with the relative reduction rate exceeding 70%. Runoff distribution tended to be more uneven during the year. Based on the Climate Elasticity Coefficient method, the contribution rates of climate change and human activities on the reduction of runoff were 29.7% and 70.3%, respectively.
Based on the hydro-meteorological data around the upper reaches of Zhanghe river basin, combined with the methods of Mann-Kendall Mutation Test, Hurst Index, Flow Duration Curve and the Climatic Elasticity Coefficient, the inter-annual and intra-annual variation characteristics of runoff were analyzed, and the influence of climate change and human activities on runoff decrease were discussed. The results indicated that, during 1955-2016, the annual runoff series showed a significantly decreasing trend with an obvious abrupt change point at 1973, and decrease rate was 0.316×10~8m~3/a. The decreasing trend of runoff was significant during 1955-1973, and the main reason might be climate change. The decreasing trend slowed down during 1974-2016 due to human activities, which was embodied in the water conservancy projects and land reform from 1970s to 1980s, the increase of water consumption for industry/agriculture and the acceleration of urbanization after the 1990s. The monthly average runoff decreased significantly before and after the abrupt change year, with the relative reduction rate exceeding 70%. Runoff distribution tended to be more uneven during the year. Based on the Climate Elasticity Coefficient method, the contribution rates of climate change and human activities on the reduction of runoff were 29.7% and 70.3%, respectively.
引文
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[4] 王浩,严登华,贾仰文,等.现代水文水资源学科体系及研究前沿和热点问题[J].水科学进展,2010,21(4):479-489.
[5] 王喆.气候变化和人类活动对漳河上游地表水资源的影响研究[D].邯郸:河北工程大学,2015.
[6] Wang W,Shao Q,Yang T,et al.Quantitative assessment of the impact of climate variability and human activities on runoff changes:a case study in four catchments of the Haihe River basin,China[J].Hydrological Processes,2013,27:1158-1174.
[7] 高云明,王勇,汤欣钢,等.1954-2013年漳河上游流域降水演变规律分析[J].河海水利,2015(5):1-3.
[8] 刘春蓁,刘志雨,谢正辉.近50年海河流域径流的变化趋势研究[J].应用气象学报,2004,15(4):385-393.
[9] Bao Z,Zhang J,Wang G,et al.Attribution for decreasing streamflow of the Haihe River basin,Northern China:climate variability or human activities?[J] Journal of Hydrology,2012,460-461:117-129.
[10] 符淙斌,王强.气候突变的定义和检测方法[J].大气科学,1992,16(4):482-493.
[11] 魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].北京:气象出版社,2008:62-79.
[12] Wallis J R,Matalas N C.Small sample properties of H and K-estimations of the Hurst coefficient[J].Water Resource Research,1970,16(6):1583-1594.
[13] Zhang L,Dawes W R,Walker G R.The response of mean annual evapo-transpiration to vegetation changes at catchment scale[J].Water Resources Research,2001,37(3):701-708.
[14] Budyko M I.Climate and Life[M].New York:Academic Press,1974.
[15] Dooge J C I,Bruen M,Parmentier B.A simple model for estimating the sensitivity of runoff to long-term changes in precipitation without a change in vegetation[J].Advances in Water Resources,1999,23(2):153-163.
[16] Koster R D,Suarez M J.A simple framework for examining the interannual variability of land surface moisture fluxes[J].Journal of Climate,1999,12(7):1911-1917.
[17] Li L,Zhang L,Wang H,et al.Assessing the impact of climate variability and human activities on streamflow from the Wuding River basin in China[J].Hydrological Processes,2007,21(25):3485-3491.
[18] Vogel R M,Fennessey N M.Flow-duration curves.I:New interpretation and con?dence intervals[J].Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management,1994,120:485-504.
[19] Brown A,Zhang L,McMahon T,et al.A critical review of paired catchment studies with reference to the seasonal flows and climate variability[J].Journal of Hydrology,2005,310:28-61.
[20] Yang Y,Tian F.Abrupt change of runoff and its major driving factors in Haihe River Catchment,China[J].Journal of Hydrology,2009,374:373-383.
[21] Hu S,Zheng H,Liu C,et al.Assessing the impacts of climate variability and human activities on streamflow in the water source area of Baiyangdian Lake[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2012,67(1):62-70.