技术—市场双重未知下企业共性技术设计:从试错学习到共同未知
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摘要
本文首先在创新管理、风险管理、不确定性管理、战略管理等理论的基础上进行文献梳理,通过构建理论框架,揭示了现有研究中存在的研究缺口:缺少处理双重未知(技术—市场)的战略。传统的减少风险的方法在应对双重未知情形时会存在局限性,本文对意法半导体体声波技术和BiCMOSMW技术进行案例分析,阐述了其隐含的共性技术设计原理,引入了共同未知战略。共同未知战略能够在技术和市场之间设计相关性,是处理双重未知的一种有效方式。最后对比分析了传统的试错学习和共同未知战略,结果表明前者的成本更低、风险更大,后者的成本更高,但风险更小。
Building the theoretical framework based on a literature review of innovation management,risk and uncertainty management,strategic management and so on,this paper reveals a research gap: there doesn't exist a strategy to deal with dual unknown( unknown technology and unknown market). The traditional techniques of risk reduction are limited when confronted with dual unknown situation. Empirically analyzing the case of STMicroelectronics' s BAW technology and BiCMOSMW technology corresponded to the design of general-purpose technology,the paper introduces a new strategy called common unknown,which is an efficient way to manage dual unknown. Finally,the paper makes a comparative analysis between the traditional trial-and-error learning and common unknown strategy:the former is cheaper and riskier,the latter is more expensive and at lower risk.
Building the theoretical framework based on a literature review of innovation management,risk and uncertainty management,strategic management and so on,this paper reveals a research gap: there doesn't exist a strategy to deal with dual unknown( unknown technology and unknown market). The traditional techniques of risk reduction are limited when confronted with dual unknown situation. Empirically analyzing the case of STMicroelectronics' s BAW technology and BiCMOSMW technology corresponded to the design of general-purpose technology,the paper introduces a new strategy called common unknown,which is an efficient way to manage dual unknown. Finally,the paper makes a comparative analysis between the traditional trial-and-error learning and common unknown strategy:the former is cheaper and riskier,the latter is more expensive and at lower risk.
引文
[1]李宇,高良谋.技术创新管理[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2016:6-7.
[2]董静,苟燕楠,封洁.基于不确定性和复杂性的创新项目管理模式研究[J].科研管理,2006,27(3):103-109.
[3]O'CONNOR G C,RICE M P. New market creation for breakthrough innovations:enabling and constraining mechanisms[J].Journal of product innovation management,2012,30(2):209-227.
[4]LOCH C H,SOLT M E,BAILEY E M. Diagnosing unforeseeable uncertainty in a new venture[J].Journal of product innovation management,2008,25(1):28-46.
[5]宁烨,刘南荻,王姗姗.跨文化情景下组织试错学习机理研究[J].管理科学,2016,29(2):29-41.
[6]ENGERMAN S L,ROSENBERG N. Innovation in historical perspective[M].Berlin:Springer Heidelberg,2016:35-41.
[7]ARIANNA M. An emerging paradigm or just another trajectory? Understanding the nature of technological changes using engineering heuristics in the telecommunications switching industry[J].Research policy,2012,41(2):414-429.
[8]谷雨. MEMS技术现状与发展前景[J].电子工业专用设备,2013,42(8):1-8.
[9]YOUTIE J,IACOPETTA M,GRAHAM S. Assessing the nature of nanotechnology:Can we uncover an emerging general purpose technology[J].Journal of technology transfer,2008,33(3):315-329.
[10]CHAPMAN C,WARD S. Project risk management. process,techniques and insights. second edition[J].Journal of the operational research society,2003,49(7):769-770.
[11]JAAFARI A. Management of risks,uncertainties and opportunities on projects:time for a fundamental shift[J].International journal of project management,2001,19(2):89-101.
[12]MCGRATH R G. A real options logic for initiating technology positioning investments[J].Academy of management review,1997,22(4):974-996.
[13]HUCHZERMEIER A,LOCH C H. Project management under risk:using the real options approach to evaluate flexibility in R. D[J].Management science,2001,47(1):85-101.
[14]ADNER R,LEVINTHAL D A. What is not a real option:considering boundaries for the application of real options to business strategy[J].Academy of management review,2004,29(1):74-85.
[15]KIM D J,KOGUT B. Technological platforms and diversification[J].Organization science,1996,7(3):283-301.
[16]陈勇强,顾伟.工程项目风险管理研究综述[J].科技进步与对策,2012,29(18):157-160.
[17]PETIT Y,HOBBS B. Project portfolios in dynamic environments:sources of uncertainty and sensing mechanisms[J].Project management journal,2010,41(4):46-58.
[18]LENFLE S,LOCH C. Lost roots:How project management came to emphasize control over flexibility and novelty[J].California management review,2010,53(1):32-55.
[19]曹虹剑,张建英,刘丹.模块化分工、协同与技术创新——基于战略性新兴产业的研究[J].中国软科学,2015(7):100-110.
[20]GAWER A,CUSUMANO M A. How companies become platform leaders[J].Sloan management review,2008,49(2):28-35.
[21]TEECE D,PETERAF M,LEIH S. Dynamic capabilities and organizational agility[J].California management review,2016,58(4):13-35.
[22]GAWER A. The organization of technological platforms[J].Research in the sociology of organizations,2010,29(29):287-296.
[23]CHRISTENSEN C M. The innovator's dilemma:when new technologies cause great firms to fail[M].Massachusetts:Harvard Business Review Press,2016:57-60.
[24]李跃生,邵家骏.质量功能展开技术[M].北京:国防工业出版社,2011:107-123.
[25]AKAO Y. Quality function deployment:integrating customer requirements into product design[J].Brain research,2004,498(1):135-139.
[26]HAYLETT R. The principles of design[J].Manufacturing engineer,2009,70(2):10-12.
[27]BACKMAN M,BORJESSON S,SETTERBERG S. Working with concepts in the fuzzy front end:exploring the context for innovation for different types of concepts at Volvo cars[J].R&D management,2007,37(1):17-28.
[28]STARBUCK W H. Learning by knowledge-intensive firms[J].Journal of management studies,2010,29(6):713-740.
[29]GAWER A. Bridging differing perspectives on technological platforms:toward an integrative framework[J].Research policy,2014,43(7):1239-1249.
[30]PRUETT M,THOMAS H. Experience-based learning in innovation and production[J].R&D management,2008,38(2):141-153.
[2]董静,苟燕楠,封洁.基于不确定性和复杂性的创新项目管理模式研究[J].科研管理,2006,27(3):103-109.
[3]O'CONNOR G C,RICE M P. New market creation for breakthrough innovations:enabling and constraining mechanisms[J].Journal of product innovation management,2012,30(2):209-227.
[4]LOCH C H,SOLT M E,BAILEY E M. Diagnosing unforeseeable uncertainty in a new venture[J].Journal of product innovation management,2008,25(1):28-46.
[5]宁烨,刘南荻,王姗姗.跨文化情景下组织试错学习机理研究[J].管理科学,2016,29(2):29-41.
[6]ENGERMAN S L,ROSENBERG N. Innovation in historical perspective[M].Berlin:Springer Heidelberg,2016:35-41.
[7]ARIANNA M. An emerging paradigm or just another trajectory? Understanding the nature of technological changes using engineering heuristics in the telecommunications switching industry[J].Research policy,2012,41(2):414-429.
[8]谷雨. MEMS技术现状与发展前景[J].电子工业专用设备,2013,42(8):1-8.
[9]YOUTIE J,IACOPETTA M,GRAHAM S. Assessing the nature of nanotechnology:Can we uncover an emerging general purpose technology[J].Journal of technology transfer,2008,33(3):315-329.
[10]CHAPMAN C,WARD S. Project risk management. process,techniques and insights. second edition[J].Journal of the operational research society,2003,49(7):769-770.
[11]JAAFARI A. Management of risks,uncertainties and opportunities on projects:time for a fundamental shift[J].International journal of project management,2001,19(2):89-101.
[12]MCGRATH R G. A real options logic for initiating technology positioning investments[J].Academy of management review,1997,22(4):974-996.
[13]HUCHZERMEIER A,LOCH C H. Project management under risk:using the real options approach to evaluate flexibility in R. D[J].Management science,2001,47(1):85-101.
[14]ADNER R,LEVINTHAL D A. What is not a real option:considering boundaries for the application of real options to business strategy[J].Academy of management review,2004,29(1):74-85.
[15]KIM D J,KOGUT B. Technological platforms and diversification[J].Organization science,1996,7(3):283-301.
[16]陈勇强,顾伟.工程项目风险管理研究综述[J].科技进步与对策,2012,29(18):157-160.
[17]PETIT Y,HOBBS B. Project portfolios in dynamic environments:sources of uncertainty and sensing mechanisms[J].Project management journal,2010,41(4):46-58.
[18]LENFLE S,LOCH C. Lost roots:How project management came to emphasize control over flexibility and novelty[J].California management review,2010,53(1):32-55.
[19]曹虹剑,张建英,刘丹.模块化分工、协同与技术创新——基于战略性新兴产业的研究[J].中国软科学,2015(7):100-110.
[20]GAWER A,CUSUMANO M A. How companies become platform leaders[J].Sloan management review,2008,49(2):28-35.
[21]TEECE D,PETERAF M,LEIH S. Dynamic capabilities and organizational agility[J].California management review,2016,58(4):13-35.
[22]GAWER A. The organization of technological platforms[J].Research in the sociology of organizations,2010,29(29):287-296.
[23]CHRISTENSEN C M. The innovator's dilemma:when new technologies cause great firms to fail[M].Massachusetts:Harvard Business Review Press,2016:57-60.
[24]李跃生,邵家骏.质量功能展开技术[M].北京:国防工业出版社,2011:107-123.
[25]AKAO Y. Quality function deployment:integrating customer requirements into product design[J].Brain research,2004,498(1):135-139.
[26]HAYLETT R. The principles of design[J].Manufacturing engineer,2009,70(2):10-12.
[27]BACKMAN M,BORJESSON S,SETTERBERG S. Working with concepts in the fuzzy front end:exploring the context for innovation for different types of concepts at Volvo cars[J].R&D management,2007,37(1):17-28.
[28]STARBUCK W H. Learning by knowledge-intensive firms[J].Journal of management studies,2010,29(6):713-740.
[29]GAWER A. Bridging differing perspectives on technological platforms:toward an integrative framework[J].Research policy,2014,43(7):1239-1249.
[30]PRUETT M,THOMAS H. Experience-based learning in innovation and production[J].R&D management,2008,38(2):141-153.