水资源承载力评价指标约简方法研究
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摘要
针对传统水资源承载力评价指标数量较多且分类过细,对资料要求较高,部分指标独立性较低,指标间存在明显相关或间接相关等不足,提出了基于敏感度分析及动态聚类分析的指标约简方法,以剔除不必要的指标,建立一套简洁实用的水资源承载力评价指标体系。首先采用敏感度分析进行指标初步筛选,其次运用关联系数对指标进行动态聚类,根据聚类结果进一步约简指标,实现了评价指标的有效约简。采用上述方法对湖州市水资源承载力评价指标进行约简,将约简后的指标集用于湖州市2011年至2016年水资源承载力动态评价,评价方法采用集对评价法。评价结果表明湖州市2011年至2016年水资源承载状态总体呈向好态势,与湖州市实际情况基本相符,验证了该套指标约简方法在湖州地区的合理性和有效性,为其他地区水资源承载力评价指标约简提供了一些新思路。
An index reduction method was proposed to eliminate unnecessary indexes and to establish a simple and practical water resources carrying capacity(WRCC)model,based on sensitivity analysis and dynamic cluster analysis.It overcame the shortcomings of the traditional WRCC model,such as,many quantities,fine classifications,rich data requirements and not independence or indirect correlations.Firstly,the sensitivity analysis was used to screen the indexes initially.Secondly,the correlation coefficient was used to cluster the indexes dynamically.According to the clustering results,the number of index was further reduced,and the effective reduction of indexes was achieved.This model was then used in Huzhou City to calculate its WRCC from 2011 to 2016.The results showed that the WRCC states of Huzhou has been developed well from 2011 to 2016,which was basically consistent with the actual conditions,which verified the rationality and effectiveness of the model.Meanwhile,the proposed method provided some new aspects of the WRCC evaluation and can be used in other regions of the country to estimate WRCC.
An index reduction method was proposed to eliminate unnecessary indexes and to establish a simple and practical water resources carrying capacity(WRCC)model,based on sensitivity analysis and dynamic cluster analysis.It overcame the shortcomings of the traditional WRCC model,such as,many quantities,fine classifications,rich data requirements and not independence or indirect correlations.Firstly,the sensitivity analysis was used to screen the indexes initially.Secondly,the correlation coefficient was used to cluster the indexes dynamically.According to the clustering results,the number of index was further reduced,and the effective reduction of indexes was achieved.This model was then used in Huzhou City to calculate its WRCC from 2011 to 2016.The results showed that the WRCC states of Huzhou has been developed well from 2011 to 2016,which was basically consistent with the actual conditions,which verified the rationality and effectiveness of the model.Meanwhile,the proposed method provided some new aspects of the WRCC evaluation and can be used in other regions of the country to estimate WRCC.
引文
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[2]惠泱河,蒋晓辉,黄强,等.水资源承载力评价指标体系研究[J].水土保持通报,2001,21(1):30-34.(HUI YH,JIANG X H,HUANG Q,et al.Research on evaluation index system of water resources bearing capacity[J].Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation,2001,21(1):30-34.(in Chinese))DOI:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2001.01.008.
[3]王友贞,施国庆,王德胜.区域水资源承载力评价指标体系的研究[J].自然资源学报,2005,20(4):597-604.(WANG Y Z,SHI G Q,WANG D S.Study on evaluation indexes of regional water resources carrying capacity[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2005,20(4):597-604.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3321/j.issn:1000-3037.2005.04.016.
[4]来海亮,汪党献,吴涤非.水资源及其开发利用综合评价指标体系[J].水科学进展,2006,17(1):95-101.(LAI H L,WANG D X,WU D F.Comprehensive assessment indicator system for water resources and its development and use[J].Advances in Water Science,2006,17(1):95-101.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3321/j.issn:1001-6791.2006.01.015.
[5]党丽娟,徐勇.水资源承载力研究进展及启示[J].水土保持研究,2015,22(3):341-348.(DANG L J,XU Y.Review of research progress in carrying capacity of water resources[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2015,22(3):341-348.(in Chinese))DOI:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2015.03.062.
[6]刘彦随,王介勇,郭丽英.中国粮食生产与耕地变化的时空动态[J].中国农业科学,2009,42(12):4269-4274.(LIU Y S,WANG J Y,GUO L Y.The spatialtemporal changes of grain production and arable land in China[J].Scientia Agricultura Sinica,2009,42(12):4269-4274.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2009.12.018.
[7]马卫鹏,刘红瑛,王映月,等.基于土地功能的陕西省土地资源承载力评价[J].湖北农业科学,2016,55(3):612-615.(MA W P,LIU H Y,WANG Y Y,et al.E-valuation on bearing capacity of land resources in Shaanxi Province based on land function[J].Hubei Agricultural Sciences,2016,55(3):612-615.(in Chinese))DOI:10.140880.cnki.issn0439-8114.2016.03.016.
[8]侯娜,李战江,苏金梅,等.基于灰色动态聚类-粗糙集的绿色资源环境评价指标构建模型[J].统计与信息论坛,2017,32(8):96-103.(HOU N,LI Z J,SU J M,et al.Establishment of green resource environment indicators system based on grey dynamic clustering and rough set[J].Statistics&Information Forum,2017,32(8):96-103.(in Chinese))
[9]刘佳骏,董锁成,李泽红.中国水资源承载力综合评价研究[J].自然资源学报,2011,26(2):258-269.(LIU JJ,DONG S C,LI Z H.Comprehensive evaluation of China’s water resources carrying capacity[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2011,26(2):258-269.(in Chinese))DOI:10.11849/zrzyxb.2011.02.009.
[10]屈小娥.陕西省水资源承载力综合评价研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2017,31(2):91-97.(QU X E.Comprehensive evaluation of water resources carrying capacity in Shaanxi Province[J].Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2017,31(2):91-97.(in Chinese))DOI:10.13448/j.cnki.jalre.2017.050.
[11]王建华,翟正丽,桑学锋,等.水资源承载力指标体系及评判准则研究[J].水利学报,2017,48(9):1023-1029.(WANG J H,ZHAI Z L,SANG X F,et al.Study on index system and judgment criterion of water resources carrying capacity[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2017,48(9):1023-1029.(in Chinese))DOI:10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20170377.
[12]邢有凯,余红,肖杨,等.基于向量模法的北京市水环境承载力评价[J].水资源保护,2008,24(4):1-3.(XING Y K,YU H,XIAO Y,et al.Water environmental carrying capacity evaluation in Beijing City with vector norm method[J].Water Resources Protection,2008,24(4):1-3.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1004-6933.2008.04.001.
[13]刘磊,卢宏玮,侯保俊,等.流域水环境承载力动态变化特征研究[J].水利规划与设计,2017(12):28-32.(LIU L,LU H W,HOU B J,et al.Study on dynamic change characteristics of water environment carrying capacity of watershed[J].Water Resources Planning and Design,2017(12):28-32.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1672-2469.2017.12.009.
[14]李美娟,陈国宏,陈衍泰.综合评价中指标标准化方法研究[J].中国管理科学,2004,12(s1):45-48.(LI M J,CHEN G H,CHEN Y T.Study on target standardization method of comprehensive evaluation[J].China Journal of Management Science,2004,12(s1):45-48.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3321/j.issn:1003-207X.2004.z1.012.
[15]刘晓,陈隽,范琳琳,等.水资源承载力研究进展与新方法[J].北京师范大学学报:自然科学版,2014,50(3):312-318.(LIU X,CHEN J,FAN L L,et al.Progress and a review of new methods in water resources capacity research[J].Journal of Beijing Normal University(Natural Science),2014,50(3):312-318.(in Chinese))
[16]沈珍瑶,祝莹欣,贾超,等.基于动态模拟递推算法和向量模法的水环境承载力计算方法[J].水资源保护,2015,31(6):32-39.(SHEN Z Y,ZHU Y X,JIA C,et al.Calculation method of water environment carrying capacity based on dynamic simulation-recursion algorithm and vector norm method[J].Water Resources Protection,2015,31(6):32-39.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3880/j.issn.1004-6933.2015.06.005.
[17]王文圣,金菊良,丁晶,等.水资源系统评价新方法---集对评价法[J].中国科学(E辑:技术科学),2009,39(9):1529-1534.(WANG W S,JIN J L,DINGJ,et al.A new approach to water resources system assessment---set pair analysis method[J].Science in China(Series E:Technological Sciences),2009,39(9):1529-1534.(in Chinese))DOI:10.1360/ze2009-39-9-1529.
[18]程乾生.属性识别理论模型及其应用[J].北京大学学报(自然科学版),1997,33(1):12-20.(CHENG Q S.Attribute recognition theoretical model with application[J].Acta Scicentiarum Naturalum Universitis Pekinesis,1997,33(1):12-20.(in Chinese))DOI:10.13209/j.0479-8023.1997.002.
[19]闫慧敏,封志明,杨艳昭,等.湖州/安吉:全国首张市/县自然资源资产负债表编制[J].资源科学,2017,39(9):1634-1645.(YAN H M,FENG Z M,YANG YZ,et al.First report of the national natural resources balance sheet for Huzhou City and Anji County[J].Resources Science,2017,39(9):1634-1645.(in Chinese))DOI:10.18402/resci.2017.09.03.
[20]湖州市统计局,国家统计局湖州调查总队.湖州统计年鉴(2012版-2017版)[M].北京:中国统计出版社.(Statistical Bureau of Huzhou City,Survey Office of the National Bureau of Statistics in Huzhou.Huzhou statistical year books(from 2012to 2017)[M].Beijing:Statistics Publishing Company of China.(in Chinese))
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