基于GIS的公路洪灾危险性空间模糊综合评价
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摘要
为探究公路洪灾危险性评价等级及其空间分布特征,根据公路及其环境的特点,从孕灾环境和致灾因子2方面选取9个评价因子,建立公路洪灾危险性评价指标体系,采用最优组合赋权法计算指标权重;结合地理信息系统(GIS)技术和可变多目标模糊优选理论,构建公路洪灾危险性空间模糊评价模型;以重庆市巴南区为应用实例,验证该模型的有效性。结果表明:运用最优组合赋权法确定权重,可避免单一权重的片面性,得到的综合权重更符合实际情况;用空间模糊综合评价模型得到的评估结果与实际情况相符。
An index system of highway flood risk assessment was established after 9 evaluation indexes were identified from considering the disaster environment and the disaster causing factors. Based on the optimum combination weighting method,weights of the indexes were calculated. On the basis of GIS technology and variable multi objective fuzzy optimization theory,a spatial fuzzy evaluation model was built for highway flood disaster risk. The effectiveness of this model was verified by applying it to Banan District of Chongqing which was taken as an example. The results show that using the optimal combination weighting method can avoid the one-sidedness of a single method and get more reasonable and realistic comprehensive weights,and that the assessment results obtained by using the model conform with the reality.
An index system of highway flood risk assessment was established after 9 evaluation indexes were identified from considering the disaster environment and the disaster causing factors. Based on the optimum combination weighting method,weights of the indexes were calculated. On the basis of GIS technology and variable multi objective fuzzy optimization theory,a spatial fuzzy evaluation model was built for highway flood disaster risk. The effectiveness of this model was verified by applying it to Banan District of Chongqing which was taken as an example. The results show that using the optimal combination weighting method can avoid the one-sidedness of a single method and get more reasonable and realistic comprehensive weights,and that the assessment results obtained by using the model conform with the reality.
引文
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[18] LAI Chengguang,CHEN Xiaohong,CHEN Xiaoyu,et al. A fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model for flood risk based on the combination weight of game theory[J]. Natural Hazards,2015,77(2):1 243-1 259.
[2]林孝松,陈洪凯,王先进,等.西南地区公路洪灾孕灾环境分区[J].长江流域资源与环境,2012,21(2):251-256.LIN Xiaosong,CHEN Hongkai,WANG Xianjin,et al. Zonation of highway flooding in southwest China based on hazard inducing environmental factors[J]. Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2012,21(2):251-256.
[3]唐红梅,廖学海,陈洪凯.基于因子分析法的公路洪灾模糊概率综合评价模型[J].中国安全科学学报,2015,25(2):141-146.TANG Hongmei,LIAO Xuehai,CHEN Hongkai. Study on highway flood fuzzy probability comprehensive evaluation model based on method of factor analysis[J].China Safety Science Journal,2015,25(2):141-146.
[4]马保成,田伟平,李家春.山区沿河公路水毁危险性评价方法的研究[J].自然灾害学报,2012,21(3):224-229.MA Baocheng,TIAN Weiping,LI Jiachun. Assessment of flood-damage hazard of highway along river in mountainous areas[J]. Journal of Natural Disaster,2012,21(3):224-229.
[5] ARONICA G T,CANDELA A,FABIO P,et al. Estimation of flood inundation probabilities using global hazard indexes based on hydrodynamic variables[J]. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth,2012,42:119-129.
[6] PEDROZO-ACUA A,MORENO G,MEJA-ESTRADA P,et al. Integrated approach to determine highway flooding and critical points of drainage[J]. Transportation Research Part D Transport&Environment,2017,50:182-191.
[7] CIAN F,MARCONCINI M,CECCATO P. Normalized difference flood index for rapid flood mapping:taking advantage of EO big data[J]. Remote Sensing of Environment,2018,209:712-730.
[8] FEIZIZADEH B,BLASCHKE T,TIEDE D,et al. Evaluating fuzzy operators of an object-based image analysis for detecting landslides and their changes[J]. Geomorphology,2017,293:240-254.
[9]路遥,徐林荣,陈舒阳,等.基于博弈论组合赋权的泥石流危险度评价[J].灾害学,2014,29(1):194-200.LU Yao,XU Linrong,CHEN Shuyang,et al.Combined weight method based on game theory for debris flow hazard risk assessment[J].Journal of Catastrophology,2014,29(1):194-200.
[10]陈守煜,薛志春,李敏,等.城市洪涝易损性评价可变集方法[J].中国科学:技术科学,2013,43(12):1 320-1 327.CHEN Shouyu,XUE Zhichun,LI Min,et al.Variable set method for evaluation of flood vulnerability in urban areas[J].Scientia Sinica:Technologica,2013,43(12):1 320-1 327.
[11]李润奎,朱阿兴,陈腊娇,等. SCS-CN模型中土壤参数的作用机制研究[J].自然资源学报,2013,28(10):1 778-1 787.LI Ruikui,ZHU Axing,CHEN Lajiao,et al. Effects of soil parameters in SCS-CN runoff model[J]. Journal of Natural Resources,2013,28(10):1 778-1 787.
[12]徐勇,孙晓一,汤青.陆地表层人类活动强度:概念、方法及应用[J].地理学报,2015,70(7):1 068-1 079.XU Yong,SUN Xiaoyi,TANG Qing. Human activity intensity of land surface:concept,method and application in China[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica,2015,70(7):1 068-1 079.
[13]林孝松,刘强,陈洪凯,等.四川省县域公路洪灾危险评价研究[J].灾害学,2015,30(4):79-84.LIN Xiaosong,LIU Qiang,CHEN Hongkai,et al. Hazard evaluation for highway flood of county territory in Sichuan province[J].Journal of Catastrophology,2015,30(4):79-84.
[14]齐洪亮,田伟平,王栋,等.公路洪水灾害危险性评价指标[J].灾害学,2014,29(3):44-47.QI Hongliang,TIAN Weiping,WANG Dong,et al. Risk assessment indicators of highway flood hazards in China[J].Journal of Catastrophology,2014,29(3):44-47.
[15]吴菊华,晋良海,余迪,等.面向非对称贴近度的地质灾害危险性评价可拓模型[J].中国安全科学学报,2016,26(9):7-12.WU Juhua,JIN Lianghai,YU Di,et al. A symmetric closeness-oriented extension model for geological hazard assessment[J].China Safety Science Journal,2016,26(9):7-12.
[16] TOTSCHNIG R,FUCHS S. Mountain torrents:quantifying vulnerability and assessing uncertainties[J]. Engineering Geology,2013,155(2):31-44.
[17] KOURGIALAS N N,KARATZAS G P. A national scale flood hazard mapping methodology:the case of Greece protection and adaptation policy approaches[J]. Science of the Total Environment,2017,601:441-452.
[18] LAI Chengguang,CHEN Xiaohong,CHEN Xiaoyu,et al. A fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model for flood risk based on the combination weight of game theory[J]. Natural Hazards,2015,77(2):1 243-1 259.