基于SD模型的黑龙江省农村电商发展仿真及对策研究
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摘要
新经济条件下,农村电商发展成为振兴乡村经济的重要手段。在国内外对农村电商研究的基础上,结合黑龙江省农村电商"本土化"的发展特征,构建基于系统动力学的农村电商发展模型,从准备度、应用度和影响度3个层面构建系统因果关系图,并从微观、中观和宏观层面研究它们之间的相互关联与动力机制,对黑龙江省农村电商2010—2022年的发展现状进行定量仿真分析。结果表明:推动农村电商发展可以快速提升农民收入,拉动地区生产总值,提高信息化水平,有效改善农村居民生活现状。针对仿真结果,提出黑龙江省农村电商发展环境优化、加强市场与科技影响和综合全面发展三大策略方针并作仿真对比分析。
Under the new economic conditions,the development of rural e-commerce has become an important means of revitalizing the rural economy.Based on the research on rural e-commerce at home and abroad,combined with the development characteristics of rural e-commerce 'localization' in Heilongjiang Province,a rural e-commerce development model based on system dynamics was constructed.And then building system causality diagram from three levels:readiness,intensity and impact degree,and the interrelationship and dynamic mechanism between them were studied from the micro,meso and macro levels.After quantitative analysis of the development status of rural e-commerce in Heilongjiang Province from 2010 to 2022,it was found that promoting the development of rural e-commerce could rapidly increase farmers′ income,stimulate regional GDP,effectively improve the level of informatization and the living conditions of rural residents.Based on the simulation results,the three strategies of rural e-commerce development environment optimization,strengthening market and technology impact and comprehensive development in Heilongjiang Province were put forward and simulated and analyzed.
Under the new economic conditions,the development of rural e-commerce has become an important means of revitalizing the rural economy.Based on the research on rural e-commerce at home and abroad,combined with the development characteristics of rural e-commerce 'localization' in Heilongjiang Province,a rural e-commerce development model based on system dynamics was constructed.And then building system causality diagram from three levels:readiness,intensity and impact degree,and the interrelationship and dynamic mechanism between them were studied from the micro,meso and macro levels.After quantitative analysis of the development status of rural e-commerce in Heilongjiang Province from 2010 to 2022,it was found that promoting the development of rural e-commerce could rapidly increase farmers′ income,stimulate regional GDP,effectively improve the level of informatization and the living conditions of rural residents.Based on the simulation results,the three strategies of rural e-commerce development environment optimization,strengthening market and technology impact and comprehensive development in Heilongjiang Province were put forward and simulated and analyzed.
引文
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[3] CHEAH W S,MASLIA B,MIT E.Sustainability modelling of e-commerce for rural community:A case from long lamai e-commerce initiative[C].IEEE:International Conference on Informatics & Creative Multimedia,2014.
[4] CáRDENAS I,BECKER J,VANELSLANDER T.E-commerce last-mile in Belgium:Developing an external cost delivery index[J].Research in Transportation Business & Management,2017,24(9):123-129.
[5] 张涛,刘晶.农村电商发展影响农民消费倾向的因素研究[J].商业经济研究,2017(18):36-38.
[6] 胡永盛.江苏农村电商典型模式分析与创新探讨[J].江苏农业科学,2017,45(20):319-321.
[7] 肖冰,陈潮填.电子商务系统的复杂性特征与方法论探析[J].商业经济研究,2015(21):77-79.
[8] FORRESTER J W.System dynamics,systems thinking,and soft OR[J].System Dynamics Review,2010,10(2-3):245-256.
[9] 高婕,肖冰.CAS视角下的电子商务发展对策分析[J].广东技术师范学院学报,2016,37(11):81-85.
[10] 鲁钊阳,廖杉杉.农产品电商发展的增收效应研究[J].经济体制改革,2016(5):86-92.
[11] 魏后凯.东北经济的新困境及重振战略思路[J].社会科学辑刊,2017(1):26-32.
[12] KSHETRI N.Rural e-commerce in developing countries[J].It Professional,2018,20(2):91-95.
[13] 邱泽国,杨毅.“互联网+”背景下黑龙江省农村电商发展及对策[J].商业经济研究,2019(2):145-148.