鞍山市手足口病日发病数与气象因素的关系及预测模型的建立
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摘要
目的分析鞍山市手足口病日发病数与气象因素之间的关系,并建立手足口病日发病数的预测模型。方法统计鞍山市2011～2016年临床诊断和实验室确诊的手足口病日发病数,对12个气象因素进行描述性分析,分析手足口病日发病数和气象因素的相关性。构建气象学因素和手足口病日发病数的多元回归方程预测模型,使用模型对2017年手足口病日发病情况进行预测并分析预测效果。结果手足口病日发病数与日最高气温、日最低气温、日平均气温、日最低相对湿度、日平均相对湿度、日降水量、日平均日照时数呈正相关,与日最高气压、日最低气压、日平均气压、日最大风速、日平均风速呈负相关(均P<0.05)。多元线性回归方程(Y=-6.406+0.732X_1+0.178X_2-1.086X_3+0.475X_4)提示手足口病日发病数是日平均气温、日最低相对湿度、日最大风速和日平均日照时数共同作用的结果。所建立方程无共线性,对2017年手足口病日发病情况进行预测,预测值的平均相对误差是0.61%。结论鞍山市手足口病日发病数受到多个气象因素的影响,所建立的模型可对本地区手足口病发病情况进行短期预测。
Objective To analyze the relationship between the daily incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease and meteorological factors in Anshan City,and to establish the prediction model for the daily incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease.Methods The daily incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease confirmed by clinical diagnosis and laboratory diagnosis in Anshan city between 2011 and 2016 were statistical analyzed,12 meteorological factors were analyzed descriptively,and the relationship between the daily incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease and meteorological factors was analyzed.A multivariate regression equation prediction model of meteorological factors and daily incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease was constructed,and then was used to predict the daily incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease in 2017.Results The daily incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease was positively correlated with daily maximum and minimum temperatures,daily average temperature,daily minimum relative humidity,daily average relative humidity,daily precipitation and daily average sunshine duration,and negatively correlated with daily maximum air pressure,daily minimum air pressure,daily average air pressure,daily maximum wind velocity and daily average wind velocity(all P<0.05).The multiple linear regression equation(Y=-6.406+0.732X_1+0.178X_2-1.086X_3+0.475X_4)revealed that the daily incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease was the consequence of the combined effect of daily average temperature,daily minimum relative humidity,daily maximum wind velocity,and daily average sunshine duration.No colinearity was found in the equation established.The average relative deviation of the predicted value was 0.61%when the daily incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease in 2017 was predicted by the equation.ConclusionThe daily incidence o hand-foot-mouth disease in Anshan City is affected by various meteorological factors.The model established can predict the local incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease in short-term.
Objective To analyze the relationship between the daily incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease and meteorological factors in Anshan City,and to establish the prediction model for the daily incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease.Methods The daily incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease confirmed by clinical diagnosis and laboratory diagnosis in Anshan city between 2011 and 2016 were statistical analyzed,12 meteorological factors were analyzed descriptively,and the relationship between the daily incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease and meteorological factors was analyzed.A multivariate regression equation prediction model of meteorological factors and daily incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease was constructed,and then was used to predict the daily incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease in 2017.Results The daily incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease was positively correlated with daily maximum and minimum temperatures,daily average temperature,daily minimum relative humidity,daily average relative humidity,daily precipitation and daily average sunshine duration,and negatively correlated with daily maximum air pressure,daily minimum air pressure,daily average air pressure,daily maximum wind velocity and daily average wind velocity(all P<0.05).The multiple linear regression equation(Y=-6.406+0.732X_1+0.178X_2-1.086X_3+0.475X_4)revealed that the daily incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease was the consequence of the combined effect of daily average temperature,daily minimum relative humidity,daily maximum wind velocity,and daily average sunshine duration.No colinearity was found in the equation established.The average relative deviation of the predicted value was 0.61%when the daily incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease in 2017 was predicted by the equation.ConclusionThe daily incidence o hand-foot-mouth disease in Anshan City is affected by various meteorological factors.The model established can predict the local incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease in short-term.
引文
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[8]Ma E,Lam T,Wong C,et al. Is hand,foot and mouth disease associated with meteorological parameters?[J]. Epidemiol Infect,2010,138(12):1 779-1 788.
[9]Lin H,Zou H,Wang Q,et al. Short-term effect of El NioSouthern Oscillation on pediatric hand,foot and mouth disease in Shenzhen,China[J]. PLo S One,2013,8(7):e65585.
[10]孙振球.医学统计学[M]. 3版.北京:人民卫生出版社,2010:273.
[2]徐文体,高璐,张颖,等.天津市手足口病患儿危险因素的病例对照研究[J].中华流行病学杂志,2009,30(1):100-101.
[3]Huang Y,Deng T,Yu S,et al. Effect of meteorological variables on the incidence of hand,foot,and mouth disease in children:a time-series analysis in Guangzhou,China[J].BMC Infect Dis,2013,13:134.
[4]中华人民共和国卫生部.手足口病预防控制指南(2009版)[J].全科医学临床与教育,2010,16(2):125-127.
[5]Wong SS,Yip CC,Lau SK,et al. Human enterovirus 71 and hand,foot and mouth disease[J]. Epidemiol Infect,2010,138(8):1 071-1 089.
[6]吕世峰,王惠君,刘慧玲,等.山东日照市2009—2012年手足口病与气象因素的时间序列分析[J].华南预防医学,2014,40(4):312-317.
[7]Wang JF,Guo YS,Christakos G,et al. Hand,foot and mouth disease:spatiotemporal transmission and climate[J]. Int J Health Geogr,2011,10:25.
[8]Ma E,Lam T,Wong C,et al. Is hand,foot and mouth disease associated with meteorological parameters?[J]. Epidemiol Infect,2010,138(12):1 779-1 788.
[9]Lin H,Zou H,Wang Q,et al. Short-term effect of El NioSouthern Oscillation on pediatric hand,foot and mouth disease in Shenzhen,China[J]. PLo S One,2013,8(7):e65585.
[10]孙振球.医学统计学[M]. 3版.北京:人民卫生出版社,2010:273.