佛山市禅城区托幼机构手足口病流行趋势及时间序列调查分析
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摘要
目的掌握佛山市禅城区托幼机构手足口病的流行特点,构建流行模型,预测其流行趋势,为防控工作提供参考。方法对禅城区托幼机构2010—2016年手足口病发病数据进行流行病学分析,应用时间序列分析建立最佳时间序列模型,并以最佳模型开展疾病预测,运用EViews6进行平稳性检验、自相关分析,SPSS22拟合模型并诊断预测,率的比较采用χ2检验,检验水准α=0.05。结果佛山市禅城区托幼机构手足口病年均发病率为2.28%,4—9月多发,其中高峰在5—7月,有隔年流行现象,除2010年外还在9月和(或)11月有流行小高峰;男多于女(P<0.01),性别比为1.73:1,5岁以下占绝大多数,其中3岁病例最多。发病有年龄、镇街分布差异有统计学意义(均P<0.01),老城区年均发病最低。ARIMA(0,0,2)(2,0,0)12模型的标准化BIC最小,模型最佳,残差为白噪声序列;该模型拟合值曲线与实际值变化基本一致,拟合较理想,预测2017年上半年该区托幼机构手足口病流行趋势为先降后升,至5月达顶峰后再下降,预测总病例数较2016年同期下降约37.47%。结论佛山市禅城区托幼机构手足口病的发病疫情仍然严峻,需要加大预防控制力度。
Objective To understand the epidemic characteristics of hand-foot-mouth disease(HFMD) in kindergartens in Chancheng district of Foshan city and establish the epidemic model forecasting the HFMD incidence trend. Methods The incidence data of HFMD from 2010 to 2016 in Chancheng district of Foshan city was described by epidemiological analysis. Optimal time series model used to predict HFMD was established by time series analysis. Using EViews6 to carry out the stability test and self-correlation analysis. SPSS22 was used to fit model and diagnostic prediction. The comparison of the rate was tested by Chi-square and the test level α was 0.05. Results The average annual incidence rate of HFMD was 2.28%, highly occurred from April to September and peaked from May to July. Data showed a small scale epidemic every second year. The epidemic peak appeared in September and November every year except 2010. Male-to-female sex ratio was 1.73:1. Subjects major aged no more than 5 years and peaked in 3 years. The average annual incidence is significantly lower in old district(all P<0.01). The standardized BIC of ARIMA(0,0,2)(2,0,0)12 which was optimized with white noises residual series was less than other models. The model was fitting well and the fitting curve was basically identical with the change of actual values. In the first half of 2017,the HFMD epidemic trend in kindergartens forecasted by ARIMA(0,0,2)(2,0,0)12 went falling-rising and peaked in May then falling. The total number of predict HFMD cases was decreased about 37.47% compared with the same period in 2016. Conclusion The epidemic of HFMD in kindergartens in Chancheng district of Foshan city was still serious. It is needed to intensify prevention and control efforts.
Objective To understand the epidemic characteristics of hand-foot-mouth disease(HFMD) in kindergartens in Chancheng district of Foshan city and establish the epidemic model forecasting the HFMD incidence trend. Methods The incidence data of HFMD from 2010 to 2016 in Chancheng district of Foshan city was described by epidemiological analysis. Optimal time series model used to predict HFMD was established by time series analysis. Using EViews6 to carry out the stability test and self-correlation analysis. SPSS22 was used to fit model and diagnostic prediction. The comparison of the rate was tested by Chi-square and the test level α was 0.05. Results The average annual incidence rate of HFMD was 2.28%, highly occurred from April to September and peaked from May to July. Data showed a small scale epidemic every second year. The epidemic peak appeared in September and November every year except 2010. Male-to-female sex ratio was 1.73:1. Subjects major aged no more than 5 years and peaked in 3 years. The average annual incidence is significantly lower in old district(all P<0.01). The standardized BIC of ARIMA(0,0,2)(2,0,0)12 which was optimized with white noises residual series was less than other models. The model was fitting well and the fitting curve was basically identical with the change of actual values. In the first half of 2017,the HFMD epidemic trend in kindergartens forecasted by ARIMA(0,0,2)(2,0,0)12 went falling-rising and peaked in May then falling. The total number of predict HFMD cases was decreased about 37.47% compared with the same period in 2016. Conclusion The epidemic of HFMD in kindergartens in Chancheng district of Foshan city was still serious. It is needed to intensify prevention and control efforts.
引文
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[9]杨小兵,孔德广,江高峰.ARIMA乘积季节模型在手足口病发病预测中的应用研究[J].中国预防医学杂志,2016,17(3):207-211.
[2]郑庆鸣,王铁强,刘义,等.ARIMA模型在预测2013年深圳市光明新区手足口病发病趋势中的应用[J].职业与健康,2014,30(9):1198-1201.
[3]陈金燕,黄兴民,赵侃仪,等.东莞市厚街镇2008-2013年手足口病流行病学分析[J].社区医学杂志,2014,12(10):65-66.
[4]梁章琴,韦克波,韦兴强,等.2010-2012年河池市手足口病流行特征分析[J].预防医学论坛,2014,20(5):396-397.
[5]颜玉炳,郑惠能,刘红莲.厦门市手足口病流行特征分析及发病趋势预测方法研究[J].社区医学杂志,2014,12(21):62-64.
[6]丁兆泗,丁连琦.手足口病的流行病学特征[J].社区医学杂志,2013,11(21):18-20.
[7]康来仪,董柏青,陈直平,等.实用传染病防治[M].北京:学苑出版社,2010:508-513.
[8]黄敏,曾彩连,杨贵清,等.SARIMA在拟合罗湖区手足口病疫情中的应用[J].热带医学杂志,2015,15(9):1279-1281.
[9]杨小兵,孔德广,江高峰.ARIMA乘积季节模型在手足口病发病预测中的应用研究[J].中国预防医学杂志,2016,17(3):207-211.