珠江口以西登陆热带气旋引发粤东暴雨的成因和预报着眼点分析
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摘要
利用台风年鉴资料、雨量站观测资料及ERA-interim 1°×1°分析资料等,对1980—2015年在广东珠江口以西(徐闻-珠海)登陆且继续偏西(北)行但引发距离登陆点较远的粤东地区出现暴雨("西登东雨")的一类严重不对称热带气旋暴雨特征进行了分析。结果表明:在珠江口以西登陆的热带气旋中有近一半会给粤东地区带来暴雨;其登陆点位置远近与粤东暴雨发生与否没有直接联系,即登陆点越靠近(珠江口)并不一定使粤东更易出现暴雨;其登陆强度越强也不一定使粤东出现暴雨可能性越大,但使粤东出现特别弱降水(<10 mm)的热带气旋多集中在(强)热带风暴级别。进一步分析引发粤东暴雨的天气形势及要素特征表明,热带气旋东侧的低空东南急流、偏东急流和偏南急流以及边界层的辐合线(台风槽)是引发粤东出现暴雨的重要原因,西太平洋副热带高压(简称副高)西南侧和"方头"副高西侧是粤东暴雨的有利形势;相似的低层风场和中层形势场背景下,700～500 hPa的湿度条件会明显影响到粤东出现暴雨的可能性的大小。
Using the data from Typhoon Almanac, rain gauges and ERA-interim 1 ° × 1 ° analysis data, the tropical cyclones that landed on the western part of Guangdong and moved westward(or northward) in the years 1980～2015 were analyzed. The results are shown as follows. Nearly half of these tropical cyclones caused heavy rainfall in eastern Guangdong and there is no direct relationship between typhoon landing position and heavy rain areas in this part of the province. Neither a landing position closer to Zhuhai nor a stronger landing strength makes heavy rain more prone to occur in Eastern Guangdong. The intensity of tropical cyclones concentrates mostly on the level of(strong) tropical storm when eastern Guangdong receives very weak precipitation(< 10 mm). Low-level jets(from the south, east and southeast) and typhoon troughs of the boundary layer are important causes of the heavy rain in eastern Guangdong. The fact that eastern Guangdong is to the southwest or south of the edge of a West Pacific subtropical high is also favorable for heavy precipitation to happen. The humidity of 700～500 hPa obviously affects the possibility of heavy rain in eastern Guangdong.
Using the data from Typhoon Almanac, rain gauges and ERA-interim 1 ° × 1 ° analysis data, the tropical cyclones that landed on the western part of Guangdong and moved westward(or northward) in the years 1980～2015 were analyzed. The results are shown as follows. Nearly half of these tropical cyclones caused heavy rainfall in eastern Guangdong and there is no direct relationship between typhoon landing position and heavy rain areas in this part of the province. Neither a landing position closer to Zhuhai nor a stronger landing strength makes heavy rain more prone to occur in Eastern Guangdong. The intensity of tropical cyclones concentrates mostly on the level of(strong) tropical storm when eastern Guangdong receives very weak precipitation(< 10 mm). Low-level jets(from the south, east and southeast) and typhoon troughs of the boundary layer are important causes of the heavy rain in eastern Guangdong. The fact that eastern Guangdong is to the southwest or south of the edge of a West Pacific subtropical high is also favorable for heavy precipitation to happen. The humidity of 700～500 hPa obviously affects the possibility of heavy rain in eastern Guangdong.
引文
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[12]余贞寿,陈敏,叶子祥,等.相似路径热带气旋“海棠”(0505)和“碧利斯”(0604)暴雨对比分析[J].热带气象学报, 2009,25(1):37-47.
[13]李云泉,李海军,董旭.路径相似台风在不同环流形势中影响嘉兴风雨差异的分析[J].科技通报, 2009,25(4):407-411.
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[15]林小红,刘爱鸣,刘通易,等.2013年“苏力”与“潭美”相似路径台风大暴雨落区差异分析[J].热带气象学报,2015,31(4):517-525.
[16]程正泉,项颂翔,黄晓莹,等.“凡亚比”登陆引发粤西大范围强降水的对流降水分析[J].广东气象, 2013,35(1):14-18.
[17]邓文君,王蓉,李茜希,等.1208号台风“韦森特”南海近海强度突增特征诊断分析[J].海洋预报, 2013,30(5):44-50.
[18]王蓉,姚小娟,肖瑜璋,等.1208号台风“韦森特”特征分析[J].海洋预报, 2013,30(6):13-20.
[19]李霞,何如意,段朝霞,等.台风“韦森特”路径突变和近海加强的成因分析[J].热带气象学报, 2014,30(3):533-541.
[20]安成,袁金南,蒙伟光,等.登陆的0915号热带气旋“巨爵”降水分布及其中尺度机构的分析[J].热带气象学报,2013,29(5):727-736.
[21]张东,蔡安安,林良勋.强热带风暴“碧利斯”致洪暴雨的特征及成因[J].广东气象, 2007,29(1):22-24.
[2]陈联寿.热带气旋研究和业务预报技术的发展[J].应用气象学报, 2006, 17(6):672-681.
[3]程正泉,陈联寿,李英.登陆热带气旋与夏季风相互作用对暴雨的影响[J].应用气象学报, 2012,23(6):660-671
[4]丛春华,陈联寿,雷小途,等.台风远距离暴雨的研究进展[J].热带气象学报, 2011,27(2):264-270.
[5]单磊,谭桂荣,姚叶青,等.一次台风远距离暴雨水汽条件及输送过程研究[J].热带气象学报,2014,30(2):353-360.
[6]丁治英,赵晓慧,邢蕊,等.2000—2009年夏季东亚热带气旋远距离暴雨统计分析及个例的数值模拟[J].热带气象学报, 2014,30(2):229-238.
[7]林爱兰,万齐林,梁建茵.登陆华南热带气旋过程降水分析[J].热带气象学报, 2003,19(增刊):65-73.
[8]翁向宇,叶萌,何夏江.登陆粤西的热带气旋降水特征分析[J].热带气象学报, 2005,21(3):301-308.
[9]岳彩军,曹钰.“海棠”台风(2005)降水非对称分布特征成因之大气因子研究[J].热带气象学报, 2014,30(2):219-228.
[10]黄莉,黄增俊,白龙,等.台风“海燕”(2013)暴雨非对称结构及中尺度特征分析[J].热带气象学报, 2017,33(3):334-344.
[11]孙力,董伟,药明,等. 1215号“布拉万”台风暴雨及降水非对称性分布的成因分析[J].气象学报,2015,73(1):36-49.
[12]余贞寿,陈敏,叶子祥,等.相似路径热带气旋“海棠”(0505)和“碧利斯”(0604)暴雨对比分析[J].热带气象学报, 2009,25(1):37-47.
[13]李云泉,李海军,董旭.路径相似台风在不同环流形势中影响嘉兴风雨差异的分析[J].科技通报, 2009,25(4):407-411.
[14]张建海,于忠凯,何勇.两个路径相似台风暴雨过程的模拟分析[J].热带气象学报, 2010,26(4):392-400.
[15]林小红,刘爱鸣,刘通易,等.2013年“苏力”与“潭美”相似路径台风大暴雨落区差异分析[J].热带气象学报,2015,31(4):517-525.
[16]程正泉,项颂翔,黄晓莹,等.“凡亚比”登陆引发粤西大范围强降水的对流降水分析[J].广东气象, 2013,35(1):14-18.
[17]邓文君,王蓉,李茜希,等.1208号台风“韦森特”南海近海强度突增特征诊断分析[J].海洋预报, 2013,30(5):44-50.
[18]王蓉,姚小娟,肖瑜璋,等.1208号台风“韦森特”特征分析[J].海洋预报, 2013,30(6):13-20.
[19]李霞,何如意,段朝霞,等.台风“韦森特”路径突变和近海加强的成因分析[J].热带气象学报, 2014,30(3):533-541.
[20]安成,袁金南,蒙伟光,等.登陆的0915号热带气旋“巨爵”降水分布及其中尺度机构的分析[J].热带气象学报,2013,29(5):727-736.
[21]张东,蔡安安,林良勋.强热带风暴“碧利斯”致洪暴雨的特征及成因[J].广东气象, 2007,29(1):22-24.