安徽省工业行业碳排放的脱钩效应及驱动类型
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摘要
依据1999年～2014年安徽省37个工业行业能源消耗及经济发展的相关数据,利用脱钩弹性指数对工业行业碳排放及经济发展的脱钩关系进行测度,并构建碳排放脱钩驱动力模型对各行业驱动类型进行分类,结果显示:安徽省大部分工业行业碳排放量呈现逐期增长态势,但个别行业亦存在波动变化现象,且工业碳排放呈现向少数行业集中的趋势.研究时段内,多数行业呈由扩张性复钩→增长连结→弱脱钩→强脱钩的逐渐过渡趋势,说明工业行业经济增长对能源碳排放的依赖程度在不断降低;能源利用效率变动是抑制碳排放的主要因素,且抑制作用不断加大,而行业内部碳减排技术和能源结构调整的减排效应变化不明显.因此,安徽省在今后一段时期内的低碳减排战略应是在进一步深化节能技术、促进产业结构升级的基础上,重点加快行业碳减排技术的研发及能源结构的调整.
Based on the data of energy consumption and economic development in Anhui province's 37 industrial sectors during 1999 ～ 2011,this paper estimates decoupling coefficient of carbon emission and economic growth using decoupling theory,and then constructs a decoupling analysis model by which driving type of carbon emission is divided. The results show that carbon emissions of most of industrial sectors showed a gradual increase,but carbon emissions of few sectors had a wave phenomena of rise and decline,and industrial carbon emission had certain trend with converging on few sectors; from 1999 to 2012,the decoupling types of carbon dioxide emission with economic growth has showed changes of the expansive recovering→ growing concatenating→the weak decoupling→strong decoupling,which explained dependence on energy continued to reduce in industrial development; changes of energy efficiency has been primarily due to cutting emissions as a whole,and the inhibitory action has been getting heavier,while the energy structural effect has not yet emerged in Anhui province. As a result,the measures for using low carbon and cutting emissions are improving energy-saving technologies and a structure to upgrade,promoting development of technologies on carbon abatement and restructuring energy structure.
Based on the data of energy consumption and economic development in Anhui province's 37 industrial sectors during 1999 ～ 2011,this paper estimates decoupling coefficient of carbon emission and economic growth using decoupling theory,and then constructs a decoupling analysis model by which driving type of carbon emission is divided. The results show that carbon emissions of most of industrial sectors showed a gradual increase,but carbon emissions of few sectors had a wave phenomena of rise and decline,and industrial carbon emission had certain trend with converging on few sectors; from 1999 to 2012,the decoupling types of carbon dioxide emission with economic growth has showed changes of the expansive recovering→ growing concatenating→the weak decoupling→strong decoupling,which explained dependence on energy continued to reduce in industrial development; changes of energy efficiency has been primarily due to cutting emissions as a whole,and the inhibitory action has been getting heavier,while the energy structural effect has not yet emerged in Anhui province. As a result,the measures for using low carbon and cutting emissions are improving energy-saving technologies and a structure to upgrade,promoting development of technologies on carbon abatement and restructuring energy structure.
引文
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[14]涂红星,肖序,许松涛.基于LMDI的中国工业行业碳排放脱钩分析[J].中南大学学报(社会科学版),2014,20(4):31~36.
[2] Galeotti M,Lanza A,Pauli F. Reassessing the environmental kuznets curve for CO2emissions:a robustness exercise[J]. Ecological Economics,2006,57(1):152~163.
[3] Martinez Z I,Bengochea M A. Pooled mean group estimation for an environmental kuznets curve for CO2[J]. Economic Letters,2004,82(1):121~126.
[4] Fried B,Getzner M. Determinants of CO2emissions in a small open economy[J]. Ecological Economics,2003,45(1):133~148.
[5] OECD. Indicators to measure decoupling of environmental pressures from economic growth[R]. Paris:OECD,2002.
[6]宋伟,陈百明,陈曦炜.常熟市耕地占用与经济增长的脱钩(decoupling)评价[J].自然资源学报,2009,24(9):1532~1540.
[7] Tapio P. Towards a theory of decoupling degrees of decoupling in the EU and the case of road traffic in Finland between 1970 and 2001[J].Transport Policy,2005,12(2):137~151.
[8]孙睿. Tapio脱钩指数测算方法的改进及其应用[J].技术经济与管理研究,2014,(8):7~11.
[9]钟太洋,黄贤金,韩立,等.资源环境领域脱钩分析研究进展[J].自然资源学报,2010,25(8):1400~1412.
[10]李忠民,宋凯,孙耀华.碳排放与经济增长脱钩指标的实证测度[J].统计与决策,2011,338(14):86~88.
[11]彭佳雯,黄贤金,钟太洋.中国经济增长与能源碳排放的脱钩研究[J].资源科学,2011,33(4):626~633.
[12]庄贵阳.气候变化挑战与中国经济低碳发展[J].国际经济评论,2007,(5):50~52.
[13]吴英姿,都红雯,闻岳春.中国工业碳排放与经济增长的关系研究——基于STIRPAT模型[J].华东经济管理,2014,28(1):47~50.
[14]涂红星,肖序,许松涛.基于LMDI的中国工业行业碳排放脱钩分析[J].中南大学学报(社会科学版),2014,20(4):31~36.