云南省气候生产潜力的时空变化
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摘要
利用云南省1961—2017年101个国家级气象站年平均气温、年降水量资料,运用Miami模型、Thornthwaite Memorial模型计算了云南省3种气候生产潜力,用Mann-Kendell法进行突变检验,并分析了时空分布特征及未来趋势.结果表明:研究期间,云南平均温度气候生产潜力(Y_t)、降水气候生产潜力(Y_r)和蒸散气候生产潜力(Y_e)值分别为1968、1477、1434 g·m~(-2)·a~(-1),Y_t呈波动上升状态,Y_r/Y_t值显示地区间水热配比差异大,约束性条件也明显不同;气候生产潜力存在突变现象,Y_t在2001年开始明显突变,Y_r没有突变,Y_e在2002—2004年有突变;气候生产潜力及气候倾向性空间分布不均,全省各地年平均Y_t、Y_r和Y_e分别在1030～2465、927～2341和832～1995 g·m~(-2)·a~(-1),3种气候生产潜力均为滇西北和滇东北最低,滇西南和滇南最高,大部分地区Y_t、Y_r和Y_e的气候倾向率分别为增长、减小和增长趋势;8种模拟未来气候变化的方案(仅气温增加1℃、仅降水增加10%、仅气温降低1℃、仅降水减少10%、气温增加1℃且降水减少10%、气温增加1℃且降水增加10%、气温降低1℃且降水增加10%、气温降低1℃且降水减少10%)将导致研究区Y_e分别变化6～45、13～77.2、15～67、-87～-17、-74～46、58～96、-54～57、-101～-59 g·m~(-2)·a~(-1).整体上,如果未来气候趋于"暖湿"化,将有利于研究区农作物增产,如果趋于"冷干"化,将不利于农作物生产.
We used the mean annual temperature and mean annual precipitation data during 1961 and 2017 of 101 national meteorological stations in Yunnan Province to calculate three climate-induced potential productivity in Yunnan Province by Miami model and the Thornthwaite Memorial model. The abrupt test was carried out by Mann-Kendell method. The spatial and temporal distribution characteristics and future trends of the three climate-induced potential productivities were analyzed. Results showed that the average values of the temperature potential productivity(Y_t), precipitation potential productivity(Y_r) and evapotranspiration potential productivity(Y_e) during the study period was 1968, 1477 and 1434 g·m~(-2)·a~(-1), respectively. The value of Y_t was rising in Yunnan Province. For the value of Y_r/Y_t, there was a large difference in water-heat ratio among regions, as well as the binding conditions. There was an abrupt change in climate-induced potential productivity, with Y_t began to abrupt change significantly in 2001. There was no abrupt change in Y_r, but Y_e had abrupt change in 2002-2004. The spatial distribution of climate production potential and climate tendency were uneven. The annual average value of Y_t, Y_r and Y_e was 1030-2465, 927-2341 and 832-1995 g·m~(-2)·a~(-1), respectively. The climate-induced potential productivity was the lowest in the northwestern and northeastern Yunnan and the highest in the southwestern and southern Yunnan. Most of the climatic propensity rates of Y_t, Y_r and Y_e showed increase, decrease and increase trends respectively. Eight schemes simulating future climate change(i.e., temperature increased by 1 ℃, precipitation increased by 10%, temperature decreased by 1 ℃, precipitation decreased by 10%, temperature increased by 1 ℃ and precipitation decreased by 10%, temperature increased by 1 ℃ and precipitation increased by 10%, the temperature decrease by 1 ℃ and the precipitation increased by 10%, the temperature decrease by 1 ℃ and precipitation decreased by 10%) would lead to Y_e changes of 6-45, 13-77.2, 15-67,-87 to-17,-74-46, 58-96,-54-57,-101 to-59 g·m~(-2)·a~(-1), respectively. On the whole, if the climate tends to be "warm and wet" in the future, it will be beneficial for crop production. However, if it tends to be "cold and dry", it will be unfavorable to crop production in the study area.
We used the mean annual temperature and mean annual precipitation data during 1961 and 2017 of 101 national meteorological stations in Yunnan Province to calculate three climate-induced potential productivity in Yunnan Province by Miami model and the Thornthwaite Memorial model. The abrupt test was carried out by Mann-Kendell method. The spatial and temporal distribution characteristics and future trends of the three climate-induced potential productivities were analyzed. Results showed that the average values of the temperature potential productivity(Y_t), precipitation potential productivity(Y_r) and evapotranspiration potential productivity(Y_e) during the study period was 1968, 1477 and 1434 g·m~(-2)·a~(-1), respectively. The value of Y_t was rising in Yunnan Province. For the value of Y_r/Y_t, there was a large difference in water-heat ratio among regions, as well as the binding conditions. There was an abrupt change in climate-induced potential productivity, with Y_t began to abrupt change significantly in 2001. There was no abrupt change in Y_r, but Y_e had abrupt change in 2002-2004. The spatial distribution of climate production potential and climate tendency were uneven. The annual average value of Y_t, Y_r and Y_e was 1030-2465, 927-2341 and 832-1995 g·m~(-2)·a~(-1), respectively. The climate-induced potential productivity was the lowest in the northwestern and northeastern Yunnan and the highest in the southwestern and southern Yunnan. Most of the climatic propensity rates of Y_t, Y_r and Y_e showed increase, decrease and increase trends respectively. Eight schemes simulating future climate change(i.e., temperature increased by 1 ℃, precipitation increased by 10%, temperature decreased by 1 ℃, precipitation decreased by 10%, temperature increased by 1 ℃ and precipitation decreased by 10%, temperature increased by 1 ℃ and precipitation increased by 10%, the temperature decrease by 1 ℃ and the precipitation increased by 10%, the temperature decrease by 1 ℃ and precipitation decreased by 10%) would lead to Y_e changes of 6-45, 13-77.2, 15-67,-87 to-17,-74-46, 58-96,-54-57,-101 to-59 g·m~(-2)·a~(-1), respectively. On the whole, if the climate tends to be "warm and wet" in the future, it will be beneficial for crop production. However, if it tends to be "cold and dry", it will be unfavorable to crop production in the study area.
引文
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[19] Zhao A (赵安),Zhao X-M (赵小敏).Analysis on the modeling and application of calculation of potential net biomass and potential yield through FAO-AEZ metho-dology.Acta Agriculturae Universitatis Jiangxiensis (江西农业大学学报),1998,20(4):120-125 (in Chinese)
[20] Hou G-L (侯光良),You S-C (游松才).To calculate China’s plant-climate productive potentialities by “Chikuzo Model”.Journal of Natural Resources (自然资源学报),1990,5(1):60-65 (in Chinese)
[21] Huang Z-Y (黄中艳),Zhu Y (朱勇).Research on staple agro-climate changes for recent 54 years in Yunnan.Meteorological Monthly (气象),2009,35(2):112-118 (in Chinese)
[22] Cheng J-G (程建刚),Wang X-F (王学锋),Long H (龙红).The influence of weather changes on key industries in Yunan.Journal of Yunnan Normal University (Humanities and Social Sciences)(云南师范大学学报:哲学社会科学版),2010,42(3):1-20 (in Chinese)
[23] Editoral Committee for the Climate Change Forecast and Impact Assessment Report for Yunnan in the Next 10-30 Years (《云南未来10～30年气候变化预估及其影响评估报告》编写委员会).Climate Change Forecast and Impact Assessment Report for Yunnan in the Next 10-30 years.Beijing:Meteorological Press,2014 (in Chinese)
[24] Hu X-Q (胡雪琼),Xu M-Y (徐梦莹),He Y-Q (何雨芩),et al.Effects of future climate change on clima-tic suitability of flue-cured tobacco plantation in Yunnan,China.Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology (应用生态学报),2016,27(4):1241-1247 (in Chinese)
[25] Li M (李蒙),Zhu Y (朱勇),Zhou J-Q (周建琴),et al.Human-grain relationship and its future change in Yunnan based on climatic potential producti-vity.Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology (中国农业气象),2019,40(2):96-104 (in Chinese)
[26] Li M (李蒙),Zhu Y (朱勇),Huang W (黄玮).Influence of climate change on climate potential productivity in Yunnan.Chinese Journal of Agrometeoro-logy (中国农业气象),2010,31(3):442-446 (in Chinese)
[27] Wei F-Y (魏凤英).Modern Diagnosis and Prediction of Climate Statistics.2nd Ed.Beijing:Meteorological Press,2007 (in Chinese)
[28] He Y-L (何云玲),Lu Z-H (鲁枝海).Climate change trends and characteristics of Kunming in recent 60 years.Scientia Geographica Sinica (地理科学),2012,32(9):1119-1124 (in Chinese)
[29] Liu L-J (刘苈今),Zhang W-C (张万诚) ,Chen Y (陈艳),et al.An analysis of homogeneity and changing trend of precipitation in the past fifty years in Yunnan.Journal of Yunnan University (Natural Science) (云南大学学报:自然科学版),2016,38(6):888-896 (in Chinese)
[2] Zhang W-M (张文木).Climate change and China’s national security in 21st century.Pacific Journal (太平洋学报),2016,24(12):51-63 (in Chinese)
[3] Zhai J-Q (翟建青),Zhan M-J (占明锦),Su B-D (苏布达),et al.The interpretation of freshwater resources in the fifth assessment report of IPCC.Climate Change Research (气候变化研究进展),2014,10(4):240-245 (in Chinese)
[4] Zhao J-F (赵俊芳),Kong X-N (孔祥娜),Jiang Y-Q (姜月清),et al.Impact assessment of climate change on climatic potential productivity in global major agricultural regions based on high spatial and temporal resolution data.Ecology and Environmental Sciences (生态环境学报),2019,28(1):1-6 (in Chinese)
[5] Zhong Z-Q (钟章奇),Wang Z (王铮),Xia H-B (夏海斌),et al.Temporal and spatial variation of the potential agricultural productivity of China under global climate change.Journal of Natural Resources (自然资源学报),2015,30(12):2018-2032 (in Chinese)
[6] Lu Y-Y (卢燕宇),Wang S (王胜),Tian H (田红),et al.Spatial and temporal variation of climatic potential productivity and its population capacity of food supply in Anhui Province.Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin (长江流域资源与环境),2017,26(3):428-435 (in Chinese)
[7] Xing L-Q (邢兰芹),Yao Z-Z (姚众众).Characteristic change of climatic potential productivity in Jiangsu Province from 1971 to 2010.Bulletion of Soil and Water Conservation (水土保持通报),2018,38(1):252-255 (in Chinese)
[8] Liao X-P (廖雪萍),Liu Y-J (刘一江),Li Y-X (李耀先),et al.Change of winter agricultural climatic potential productivity of Guangxi under future climate scenario.Southwest China Journal of Agricultural Sciences (西南农业学报),2017,30(2):438-443 (in Chinese)
[9] Du G-M (杜国明),Ma J-P (马敬盼),Zhang L-Y (张露洋),et al.Spatiotemporal characteristics of grain potential productivity change under the background of climate change over the past 50 years in the Sanjiang Plain.Research of Soil and Water Conservation (水土保持研究),2018,25(2):361-366 (in Chinese)
[10] Zhang S (张爽),Li Q (李强),Ji L (吉莉),et al.Climate change and its impact on potential productivity:In western Chongqing during 1970-2014.Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin (中国农学通报),2018,34(12):112-117 (in Chinese)
[11] Zhao J-F (赵俊芳),Guo J-P (郭建平),Wu D-R (邬定荣),et al.Climatic potential productivity of winter wheat and summer maize in Huanghuaihai Plain in 2011-2050.Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology (应用生态学报),2011,22(12):3189-3195 (in Chinese)
[12] Liu J (刘江),Pan Y-H (潘宇弘),Wang P-H (王平华),et al.Spatial and temporal characteristics of climatic potential productivity of maize in Liaoning Pro-vince from 1966 to 2015.Chinese Journal of Ecology (生态学杂志),2018,37(11):3396-3406 (in Chinese)
[13] Ma R (马锐),Jiang M (江敏),Xue C-Y (薛昌颖),et al.Response of rice to future climate change based on adaptive adjustment in southern Henan Pro-vince.Chinese Journal of Rice Science (中国水稻学报),2016,30(4):417-430 (in Chinese)
[14] Chu Z (初征),Guo J-P (郭建平).Impacts of adaptive measures to climate changes on climatic potential productivity of maize in northeast China.Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology (应用生态学报),2018,29(6):1885-1892 (in Chinese)
[15] Mao L-X (毛留喜),Zhao J-F (赵俊芳),Xu L-L (徐玲玲),et al.Climatic suitability of spring maize planted in the “sickle bend” area of China and regulation suggestion.Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology (应用生态学报),2016,27(12):3935-3943 (in Chinese)
[16] Chen G-N (陈国南).Preliminary study on calculation of primary production of ecosystem in China with application of Miami model.Journal of Natural Resources (自然资源学报),1987,2(3):270-278 (in Chinese)
[17] Lieth H.Primary production:Terrestrial ecosystems.Human Ecology,1973,1:303-332
[18] Leith H.Modeling the primary productivity of the world // Leith H,ed.Primary Productivity of the Biosphere.Berlin:Springer,1975:237-263
[19] Zhao A (赵安),Zhao X-M (赵小敏).Analysis on the modeling and application of calculation of potential net biomass and potential yield through FAO-AEZ metho-dology.Acta Agriculturae Universitatis Jiangxiensis (江西农业大学学报),1998,20(4):120-125 (in Chinese)
[20] Hou G-L (侯光良),You S-C (游松才).To calculate China’s plant-climate productive potentialities by “Chikuzo Model”.Journal of Natural Resources (自然资源学报),1990,5(1):60-65 (in Chinese)
[21] Huang Z-Y (黄中艳),Zhu Y (朱勇).Research on staple agro-climate changes for recent 54 years in Yunnan.Meteorological Monthly (气象),2009,35(2):112-118 (in Chinese)
[22] Cheng J-G (程建刚),Wang X-F (王学锋),Long H (龙红).The influence of weather changes on key industries in Yunan.Journal of Yunnan Normal University (Humanities and Social Sciences)(云南师范大学学报:哲学社会科学版),2010,42(3):1-20 (in Chinese)
[23] Editoral Committee for the Climate Change Forecast and Impact Assessment Report for Yunnan in the Next 10-30 Years (《云南未来10～30年气候变化预估及其影响评估报告》编写委员会).Climate Change Forecast and Impact Assessment Report for Yunnan in the Next 10-30 years.Beijing:Meteorological Press,2014 (in Chinese)
[24] Hu X-Q (胡雪琼),Xu M-Y (徐梦莹),He Y-Q (何雨芩),et al.Effects of future climate change on clima-tic suitability of flue-cured tobacco plantation in Yunnan,China.Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology (应用生态学报),2016,27(4):1241-1247 (in Chinese)
[25] Li M (李蒙),Zhu Y (朱勇),Zhou J-Q (周建琴),et al.Human-grain relationship and its future change in Yunnan based on climatic potential producti-vity.Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology (中国农业气象),2019,40(2):96-104 (in Chinese)
[26] Li M (李蒙),Zhu Y (朱勇),Huang W (黄玮).Influence of climate change on climate potential productivity in Yunnan.Chinese Journal of Agrometeoro-logy (中国农业气象),2010,31(3):442-446 (in Chinese)
[27] Wei F-Y (魏凤英).Modern Diagnosis and Prediction of Climate Statistics.2nd Ed.Beijing:Meteorological Press,2007 (in Chinese)
[28] He Y-L (何云玲),Lu Z-H (鲁枝海).Climate change trends and characteristics of Kunming in recent 60 years.Scientia Geographica Sinica (地理科学),2012,32(9):1119-1124 (in Chinese)
[29] Liu L-J (刘苈今),Zhang W-C (张万诚) ,Chen Y (陈艳),et al.An analysis of homogeneity and changing trend of precipitation in the past fifty years in Yunnan.Journal of Yunnan University (Natural Science) (云南大学学报:自然科学版),2016,38(6):888-896 (in Chinese)