基于MOS的内蒙古风电场风机风速预报方法研究
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摘要
采用基于T639数值预报产品的MOS预报,建立了内蒙古风电场风机风速预报模型,并与EC集合预报、本地MM5及上级WRF风机风速预报产品进行了对比,结果表明:平均绝对误差、平均相对误差、均方根误差均表现为EC集合预报(集合平均)效果最好,MOS方法次之,均优于本地MM5和WRF指导。由于集合预报、MOS方法预报时效较长,因而具有显著的业务应用价值。MOS方法制作风机风速预报的优点在于:以形势场作为预报因子,发挥了形势预报更为准确的优势,同时能够有效消除模式的系统误差。
Based on the T639 numerical weather prediction production, a wind speed forecast method based on the MOS technique on the wind farm in Inner Mongolia had been developed. And a comparition among the results of the MOS, the EC ensemble forecast, the local MM5 forecast and the superior WRF forecast production had been conducted. The result shown the EC ensemble forecast production gained the best effect and the MOS method took the second place. Both of them were better than the local MM5 and the superior WRF production. Considering the long period of validity the EC ensemble forecast and MOS production performed the great operation value. The merit of MOS was the using of prognosis factors exerted its advantage of the precise and removed the systematic error of numerical weather prediction.
Based on the T639 numerical weather prediction production, a wind speed forecast method based on the MOS technique on the wind farm in Inner Mongolia had been developed. And a comparition among the results of the MOS, the EC ensemble forecast, the local MM5 forecast and the superior WRF forecast production had been conducted. The result shown the EC ensemble forecast production gained the best effect and the MOS method took the second place. Both of them were better than the local MM5 and the superior WRF production. Considering the long period of validity the EC ensemble forecast and MOS production performed the great operation value. The merit of MOS was the using of prognosis factors exerted its advantage of the precise and removed the systematic error of numerical weather prediction.
引文
[1]郭春燕.1963—2012年内蒙古自治区风速的时空变化特征分析[J].内蒙古气象,2015(4):18-23.
[2]王佳,韩见弘,杨彩云.内蒙古商都化德风区风速气候变化特征分析[J].北方环境,2013(8):115-116.
[3]石岚,徐丽娜,郝玉珠.基于风速高相关分区的风电场风速预报订正[J].应用气象学报,2016,27(4):506-512.
[4]徐丽娜,石岚,冯凯宁.BJ-RUC预报系统在内蒙古10m风速预报中的效果检验[J].干旱区资源与环境,2015,29(1):149-153.
[5]石岚,徐丽娜,郝玉珠,等.BJ-RUC在内蒙古某风电场的风速预报检验分析[J].干旱区地理,2015,38(3):510-516.
[2]王佳,韩见弘,杨彩云.内蒙古商都化德风区风速气候变化特征分析[J].北方环境,2013(8):115-116.
[3]石岚,徐丽娜,郝玉珠.基于风速高相关分区的风电场风速预报订正[J].应用气象学报,2016,27(4):506-512.
[4]徐丽娜,石岚,冯凯宁.BJ-RUC预报系统在内蒙古10m风速预报中的效果检验[J].干旱区资源与环境,2015,29(1):149-153.
[5]石岚,徐丽娜,郝玉珠,等.BJ-RUC在内蒙古某风电场的风速预报检验分析[J].干旱区地理,2015,38(3):510-516.