“一带一路”政策对新疆经济发展的影响研究
|
摘要
在历史变迁发展的过程中,新疆始终是丝绸之路的必经之地,处在"丝绸之路经济带"的核心区域,"一带一路"政策的提出势必会对新疆的经济发展产生一定的影响,对"一带一路"政策的研究将会对新疆的经济发展起到很好的指导作用.本文对影响新疆经济发展的主要指标进行分析,通过层次分析法选取新疆维吾尔自治区2003-2015年全社会固定资产投资总额和城镇居民人均可支配收入作为经济实力比较的统计依据,建立灰色模型的方法探究"一带一路"政策对新疆经济发展的影响.所建模型平均相对误差控制在7.63%以内,拟合效果较好,结果表明:新疆是"一带一路"政策的受惠区,在该政策提出前后新疆的经济发展趋势呈现出明显的差别,并且在"一带一路"政策的推动下,新疆的经济发展有较大幅度的增长.
In the course of historical changes and development, Xinjiang has always been a must for the Silk Road and is located in the core region of the "Silk Road economic belt".The proposal of the "Belt and Road" policy will certainly have a certain impact on the economic development of Xinjiang, and the study on the "Belt and Road" policy will play a good guiding role in the economic development of Xinjiang. This paper analyzes the main indexes that affect the economic development of Xinjiang, through the analytic hierarchy processto select the Xinjiang uygur autonomous region in 2003-2015 whole social fixed assets investment and urban per capita disposable income as economic strength comparing statistical basis, establish a grey model GM(1,1) to explore the "One Belt And One Road"policy impact on the economic development of Xinjiang. The model average relative error control within 7.63%, the fitting effect is good. The results showed that Xinjiang is the beneficiary area of the "One Belt And One Road" policy. The economic development trend of Xinjiang showed a significant difference before and after the policy was proposed, and under the impetus of the "One Belt And One Road" policy, the economic development of Xinjiang showed a significant increase
In the course of historical changes and development, Xinjiang has always been a must for the Silk Road and is located in the core region of the "Silk Road economic belt".The proposal of the "Belt and Road" policy will certainly have a certain impact on the economic development of Xinjiang, and the study on the "Belt and Road" policy will play a good guiding role in the economic development of Xinjiang. This paper analyzes the main indexes that affect the economic development of Xinjiang, through the analytic hierarchy processto select the Xinjiang uygur autonomous region in 2003-2015 whole social fixed assets investment and urban per capita disposable income as economic strength comparing statistical basis, establish a grey model GM(1,1) to explore the "One Belt And One Road"policy impact on the economic development of Xinjiang. The model average relative error control within 7.63%, the fitting effect is good. The results showed that Xinjiang is the beneficiary area of the "One Belt And One Road" policy. The economic development trend of Xinjiang showed a significant difference before and after the policy was proposed, and under the impetus of the "One Belt And One Road" policy, the economic development of Xinjiang showed a significant increase
引文
[1]秦放鸣,孙庆刚.新疆在“丝绸之路经济带”建设中的定位和选择[J].新疆大学学报(哲学·人文社会科学版),2013, 41(06):14-17.
[2]赵龙.“一带一路”战略下新疆定位与区域金融中心建设的再思考[J].金融发展评论,2016(09):107-115.
[3]王小云,蓝少华.档案信息质量评价之指标权重分析及运用——基于层次分析法[J].档案学通讯,2010(01):41-45.
[4]邓雪,李家铭,曾浩健,陈俊羊,赵俊峰.层次分析法权重计算方法分析及其应用研究[J].数学的实践与认识,2012, 42(07):93-100.
[5]漆莉莉.国内生产总值预测模型与经济分析[J].当代财经,2005,(10):126-128.
[6]朱叶.基于组合模型的南疆区域经济发展趋势研究[D].塔里木大学,2013.
[7]宋秀英.基于MATLAB的灰色预测GM(1,1)模型在经济分析中的应用[J].数学学习与研究,2011(11):93-95.
[8]周德强,冯建中.改进的GM(1,1)模型及其应用[J].统计与决策,2010(23):168-170.
[9]陈友余.中国经济增长影响因素分析及其预测[J].统计与决策,2013(03):133-136.
[10]郭微,徐庆,徐晓磊.“一带一路”区域物流供需预测分析——以福建和新疆为例[J].特区经济,2016(03):23-25.
[11]毛李帆,江岳春,龙瑞华,李妮,黄慧,黄珊.基于偏最小二乘回归分析的中长期电力负荷预测[J].电网技术,2008(19):71-77.
[12]程小红.回归分析在经济预测中的应用[J].铜陵财经专科学校学报,2000(04):32-35.
[13]梁秀娟.基于偏最小二乘回归分析的城市经济分析[D].华中科技大学,2008.
[14]李向阳.信息化对农业经济增长影响的回归分析[J].统计与决策,2014(04):147-150.
[2]赵龙.“一带一路”战略下新疆定位与区域金融中心建设的再思考[J].金融发展评论,2016(09):107-115.
[3]王小云,蓝少华.档案信息质量评价之指标权重分析及运用——基于层次分析法[J].档案学通讯,2010(01):41-45.
[4]邓雪,李家铭,曾浩健,陈俊羊,赵俊峰.层次分析法权重计算方法分析及其应用研究[J].数学的实践与认识,2012, 42(07):93-100.
[5]漆莉莉.国内生产总值预测模型与经济分析[J].当代财经,2005,(10):126-128.
[6]朱叶.基于组合模型的南疆区域经济发展趋势研究[D].塔里木大学,2013.
[7]宋秀英.基于MATLAB的灰色预测GM(1,1)模型在经济分析中的应用[J].数学学习与研究,2011(11):93-95.
[8]周德强,冯建中.改进的GM(1,1)模型及其应用[J].统计与决策,2010(23):168-170.
[9]陈友余.中国经济增长影响因素分析及其预测[J].统计与决策,2013(03):133-136.
[10]郭微,徐庆,徐晓磊.“一带一路”区域物流供需预测分析——以福建和新疆为例[J].特区经济,2016(03):23-25.
[11]毛李帆,江岳春,龙瑞华,李妮,黄慧,黄珊.基于偏最小二乘回归分析的中长期电力负荷预测[J].电网技术,2008(19):71-77.
[12]程小红.回归分析在经济预测中的应用[J].铜陵财经专科学校学报,2000(04):32-35.
[13]梁秀娟.基于偏最小二乘回归分析的城市经济分析[D].华中科技大学,2008.
[14]李向阳.信息化对农业经济增长影响的回归分析[J].统计与决策,2014(04):147-150.