基于马尔可夫链的北京市546年来的旱涝演变特征
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摘要
基于北京546年的旱涝资料,通过Mann-Kendall检验、滑动t检验等方法,分析得到不同旱涝变化趋势,并使用马尔可夫链研究了整体和每个趋势各状态间的转移概率以及重现期。研究表明北京地区旱涝灾害具有明显的趋势性,整体呈现"涝-旱-涝-旱"波动,局部有旱涝急转的现象。1470-1579年整体偏涝,转向偏涝年份的概率最高(31.3%);1580-1768年整体偏旱,转向正常年份的概率最高(34.3%),且容易发生多年连旱;1769-1898年整体偏涝,转向正常年份的概率最高(41.5%),且旱涝灾害发生概率基本相同;1899-1961年由涝转旱,转向偏旱年份的概率最高(35.1%);1962-2015年整体偏旱,转向偏旱概率最高(29.7%),且容易发生多年连旱。对546年旱涝整体分析,旱涝转移趋向于正常,但整体处于一个偏旱的状态。
Based on the data of droughts and floods over the last 546 years in Beijing,we obtained different trends of floods and droughts using Mann-Kendall test and moving t-test,and we used Markov chain to study the transfer probability and recurrence of different states in each trend.The study showed that the drought and flood disasters in Beijing manifested obvious tendencies.The overall trend was " flood-drought-flood-drought" fluctuation,with rapid shifts between drought and flood at some times.During 1470-1579,Beijing was prone to flood and had the highest probability of transferring to a partial flood year(31.3%).During 1580-1768,Beijing was prone to drought and had the highest probability of transferring to a normal year(34.3%);it was also very likely to have continuous droughts.During 1769-1898,Beijing was prone to flood and had the highest probability of transferring a normal year(41.5%);the occurrence probabilities of drought and flood disasters were basically the same.During 1899-1961,Beijing transferred from flood to drought and had the highest probability of transferring to a partial drought year(35.1%).During 1962-2015,Beijing was prone to drought,and had the highest probability of transferring to a partial drought year(29.7%);it was also very likely to have continuous droughts.The overall analysis of 546 years of droughts and floods showed that the transfer of droughts and floods tended to be normal,but the overall situation was partial drought.
Based on the data of droughts and floods over the last 546 years in Beijing,we obtained different trends of floods and droughts using Mann-Kendall test and moving t-test,and we used Markov chain to study the transfer probability and recurrence of different states in each trend.The study showed that the drought and flood disasters in Beijing manifested obvious tendencies.The overall trend was " flood-drought-flood-drought" fluctuation,with rapid shifts between drought and flood at some times.During 1470-1579,Beijing was prone to flood and had the highest probability of transferring to a partial flood year(31.3%).During 1580-1768,Beijing was prone to drought and had the highest probability of transferring to a normal year(34.3%);it was also very likely to have continuous droughts.During 1769-1898,Beijing was prone to flood and had the highest probability of transferring a normal year(41.5%);the occurrence probabilities of drought and flood disasters were basically the same.During 1899-1961,Beijing transferred from flood to drought and had the highest probability of transferring to a partial drought year(35.1%).During 1962-2015,Beijing was prone to drought,and had the highest probability of transferring to a partial drought year(29.7%);it was also very likely to have continuous droughts.The overall analysis of 546 years of droughts and floods showed that the transfer of droughts and floods tended to be normal,but the overall situation was partial drought.
引文
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[16]张德二,李小泉,梁有叶.《中国近五百年旱涝分布图集》的再续补(1993~2000年)[J].应用气象学报,2003,14(3):379-384.(ZHANG D E,LI X Q,LIANG Y Y.Continuation(1992-2000)of the yearly charts of dryness/wetness in China for the last 500years period[J].Journal of Applied Meteorological Science,2003,14(3):379-384.(in Chinese))
[17]陈睿智,桑燕芳,王中根,等.1956-2010年甬江流域降水变化特性分析[J].地理科学进展,2012,31(9):1149-1156.(CHEN R Z,SANG Y F,WANG Z G,et al.Variability of precipitation in the Yongjiang River Basin during 1956-2010[J].Progress in Geography,2012,31(9):1149-1156.(in Chinese))
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[20]符淙斌,王强.气候突变的定义和检测方法[J].大气科学,1992,16(4):482-493.(FU C B,WANG Q.The definition and detection of the abrupt climatic change[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,1992,16(4):482-493.(in Chinese))
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[2]方宏阳,杨志勇,栾清华,等.基于SPI的京津冀地区旱涝时空变化特征分析[J].水利水电技术,2013,44(10):13-16.(FANG HY,YANG Z Y,LUAN Q H,et al.SPI based analysis on characteristics of drought-flood spatial-temporal variation of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region[J].Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering,2013,44(10):13-16.(in Chinese))DOI:10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2013.10.002.
[3]王文鑫,胡先学.过去500年海河流域旱涝变化规律[J].南水北调与水利科技,2017,15(4):34-38.(WANG W X,HU XX.The variation of drought and flood in Haihe river basin over the past 500years[J].South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science&Technology,2017,15(4):34-38.(in Chinese))DOI:10.13476/j.cnki.nsbdqk.2017.04.006.
[4]卢路,刘家宏,秦大庸.海河流域1469-2008年旱涝变化趋势及演变特征分析[J].水电能源科学,2011,29(9):8-11.(LUL,LIU J H,QIN D Y.Analysis of drought/waterlogging variation tendency and evolution features in Haihe River Basin during 1469~2008years[J].Water Resources and Power,2011,29(9):8-11.(in Chinese))
[5]翟家齐,赵勇,裴源生.北京地区干旱长期演变规律及未来趋势预测[J].水电能源科学,2012,30(3):1-4.(ZHAI J Q,ZHAOY,PEI Y S.Long-term drought evolution laws and its trend predication in Beijing Region[J].Water Resources and Power,2012,30(3):1-4.(in Chinese))
[6]陈颖,赵景波.北京地区明代、清代干旱灾害与气候事件研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2011,25(9):176-182.(CHEN Y,ZHAO J B.The draught disasters and climate events in Beijing in Ming and Qing Dynasty[J].Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2011,25(9):176-182.(in Chinese))
[7]李艳萍,陈昌春,张余庆,等.基于EEMD的明代北京地区干旱灾害特征分析[J].中国沙漠,2014,34(3):835-840.(LI Y P,CHEN C C,ZHANG Y Q,et al.The characteristics of drought disasters in Beijing during the Ming Dynasty(1368-1644)based on ensemble empirical mode decomposition method[J].Journal of Desert Research,2014,34(3):835-840.(in Chinese))DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2013.00383.
[8]曹永强,张亮亮,朱明明.辽西北地区干旱时空变化特征分析[J].南水北调与水利科技,2017,15(1):49-54.(CAO Y Q,ZHANG L L,ZHU M M.Spatial and temporal variation characteristics of drought in northwestern Liaoning Province[J].South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science&Technology,2017,15(1):49-54.(in Chinese))DOI:10.13476/j.cnki.nsbdqk.2017.01.009.
[9]刘钰,谭军利,李王成,等.银川市气候变化趋势及其与城市发展的关系[J].南水北调与水利科技,2015,13(5):837-841.(LIU Y,TAN J L,LI W C,et al.Relationship between climate change and urban development in Yinchuan City[J].South-toNorth Water Transfers and Water Science&Technology,2015,13(5):837-841.(in Chinese))DOI:10.13476/j.cnki.nsbdqk.2015.05.005.
[10]汪曼琳,万新宇,钟平安,等.长江上游降水特征及时空演变规律[J].南水北调与水利科技,2016,14(4):65-71.(WANG ML,WAN X Y,ZHONG P A,et al.Characteristics of precipitation in upper reaches of the Yangtze River and its temporal and spatial evolution[J].South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science&Technology,2016,14(4):65-71.(in Chinese))DOI:10.13476/j.cnki.nsbdqk.2016.04.011.
[11]傅丽昕.近57年来和丰县气温和降水量的趋势性及突变特征[J].南水北调与水利科技,2014,12(4):38-41.(FU L X.Tendency and mutation analysis of annual temperature and precipitation of Hefeng County in recent 57years[J].Southto-North Water Transfers and Water Science&Technology,2014,12(4):38-41.(in Chinese))DOI:10.13476/j.cnki.nsbdqk.2014.04.009.
[12]颜时延,平建华,吴泽宁,等.汾河水库控制流域径流突变及其驱动因素[J].南水北调与水利科技,2017,15(6):48-53.(YAN S Y,PING J H,WU Z N,et al.Analysis on abrupt change of runoff in the watershed controlled by Fenhe Reservoir and its driving forces[J].South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science&Technology,2017,15(6):48-53.(in Chinese))DOI:10.13476/j.cnki.nsbdqk.2017.06.007.
[13]李凤娟,刘吉平.近百年长春市旱涝的马尔科夫链分析[J].吉林农业大学学报,2005,27(6):594-598.(LI F J,LIU J P.Markov Chain analysis of drought and flood in Changchun City in about one hundred years[J].Journal of Jilin Agricultural University,2005,27(6):594-598.(in Chinese))
[14]中央气象局气象科学研究院.中国近五百年旱涝分布图集[M].北京:地图出版社,1981.(Chinese Academy of Meteorological Science.Yearly Charts of Dryness/Wetness in China for the Last 500-year Period[M].Beijing:Sinomap Press,1981(in Chinese))
[15]张德二,刘传志.《中国近五百年旱涝分布图集》续补(1980-1992年)[J].气象,1993,19(11):41-45.(ZHANG D E,LIUC Z.Continuation(1980-1992)of the yearly charts of dryness/wetness in China for the last 500years period[J].Meteorological Monthly,1993,19(11):41-45.(in Chinese))
[16]张德二,李小泉,梁有叶.《中国近五百年旱涝分布图集》的再续补(1993~2000年)[J].应用气象学报,2003,14(3):379-384.(ZHANG D E,LI X Q,LIANG Y Y.Continuation(1992-2000)of the yearly charts of dryness/wetness in China for the last 500years period[J].Journal of Applied Meteorological Science,2003,14(3):379-384.(in Chinese))
[17]陈睿智,桑燕芳,王中根,等.1956-2010年甬江流域降水变化特性分析[J].地理科学进展,2012,31(9):1149-1156.(CHEN R Z,SANG Y F,WANG Z G,et al.Variability of precipitation in the Yongjiang River Basin during 1956-2010[J].Progress in Geography,2012,31(9):1149-1156.(in Chinese))
[18]曹永强,刘佳佳,王学凤,等.黄淮海流域旱涝周期、突变点和趋势分析研究[J].干旱区地理,2016,39(2):275-284.(CAOY Q,LIU J J,WANG X F,et al.Drought-and-flood period,mutation point and trend analysis in Huang-Huai-Hai River Basin[J].Arid Land Geography,2016,39(2):1149-1156.(in Chinese))DOI:10.13826/j.cnki.cn65-1103/x.2016.02.006
[19]王米雪,延军平,李双双.1960-2013年中国东南沿海地区旱涝时空变化特征及其趋势分析[J].资源科学,2014,36(11):2307-2315.(WANG M X,YAN J P,LI S S.Spatial-temporal variation and the tendency of droughts and floods on the Southeast Coast of China over 54years[J].Resources Science,2014,36(11):2307-2315.(in Chinese))
[20]符淙斌,王强.气候突变的定义和检测方法[J].大气科学,1992,16(4):482-493.(FU C B,WANG Q.The definition and detection of the abrupt climatic change[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,1992,16(4):482-493.(in Chinese))
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