1960–2016年中国北方寒潮事件时空变化分析（英文）
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摘要
Among the most devastating extreme weather events, cold surge(CS) events frequently impact northern China. It has been reported that extreme weather events will increase in the global warming context. However, the direct evidence of this hypothesis is limited. Here, we investigated the changes in frequency, number, duration, and temperature of CS events in northern China using the daily minimum temperature dataset of 331 stations from 1960 to 2016. The results indicate that the annual CS events in terms of frequency and number decreased, and the duration shortened as the starting date was later and the ending date earlier. Meanwhile, the annual CS temperature increased. In addition, spatial trends in the CS events in terms of frequency, number, and duration decreased while the CS temperature increased in most regions of northern China. We interpreted these variations as a response to global warming. However, the extreme CS events in terms of frequency, number and the earliest starting date and the latest ending date showed little change though the extreme CS temperature increased, implying climate warming had not limited extreme CS events. The adverse effect of CS events on agriculture and human health remain concerning.
Among the most devastating extreme weather events, cold surge(CS) events frequently impact northern China. It has been reported that extreme weather events will increase in the global warming context. However, the direct evidence of this hypothesis is limited. Here, we investigated the changes in frequency, number, duration, and temperature of CS events in northern China using the daily minimum temperature dataset of 331 stations from 1960 to 2016. The results indicate that the annual CS events in terms of frequency and number decreased, and the duration shortened as the starting date was later and the ending date earlier. Meanwhile, the annual CS temperature increased. In addition, spatial trends in the CS events in terms of frequency, number, and duration decreased while the CS temperature increased in most regions of northern China. We interpreted these variations as a response to global warming. However, the extreme CS events in terms of frequency, number and the earliest starting date and the latest ending date showed little change though the extreme CS temperature increased, implying climate warming had not limited extreme CS events. The adverse effect of CS events on agriculture and human health remain concerning.
Among the most devastating extreme weather events, cold surge(CS) events frequently impact northern China. It has been reported that extreme weather events will increase in the global warming context. However, the direct evidence of this hypothesis is limited. Here, we investigated the changes in frequency, number, duration, and temperature of CS events in northern China using the daily minimum temperature dataset of 331 stations from 1960 to 2016. The results indicate that the annual CS events in terms of frequency and number decreased, and the duration shortened as the starting date was later and the ending date earlier. Meanwhile, the annual CS temperature increased. In addition, spatial trends in the CS events in terms of frequency, number, and duration decreased while the CS temperature increased in most regions of northern China. We interpreted these variations as a response to global warming. However, the extreme CS events in terms of frequency, number and the earliest starting date and the latest ending date showed little change though the extreme CS temperature increased, implying climate warming had not limited extreme CS events. The adverse effect of CS events on agriculture and human health remain concerning.
引文
Aguilar E,Barry A A,Brunet M et al.,2009.Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in western Central Africa,Guinea Conakry,and Zimbabwe,1955-2006.Journal of Geophysical Research,114(D2):356-360.
Anagnostopoulou C,Tolika K,Lazoglou G et al.,2017.The exceptionally cold January of 2017 over the Balkan Peninsula:A climatological and synoptic analysis.Atmosphere,8(12):252.doi:10.3390/atmos8120252.
Braga A L F,Zanobetti A,Schwartz J,2002.The effect of weather on respiratory and cardiovascular deaths in 12US cities.Environmental Health Perspectives,110(9):859-863.
Chen Y L,Chen N,Ma J R et al.,2010.Variety of Ningxia cold waves in the last 48 years and its possible reasons.Journal of Natural Resources,25(6):939-951.(in Chinese)
Cohen J,Screen J A,Furtado J C et al.,2014.Recent Arctic amplification and extreme mid-latitude weather.Nature Geoscience,7(9):627-637.
Ding T,Qian W H,Yan Z W,2009.Characteristics and changes of cold surge events over China during1960-2007.Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters,2(6):339-344.
Dong S,Huang W N,Li X et al.,2017.Study on temporal and spatial characteristics of cold waves in Shandong Province of China.Natural Hazards,88(1):191-219.
Gonzalez-Hidalgo J C,Pe?a-Angulo D,Brunetti M et al.,2016.Recent trend in temperature evolution in Spanish mainland(1951-2010):From warming to hiatus.International Journal of Climatology,36(6):2405-2416.
Gronlund C J,Zanobetti A,Wellenius G A et al.,2016.Vulnerability to renal,heat and respiratory hospitalizations during extreme heat among US elderly.Climatic Change,136(3):631-645.
Ha K J,Yun K S,2012.Climate change effects on tropical night days in Seoul,Korea.Theoretical and Applied Climatology,109(1/2):191-203.
Honda M,Inoue J,Yamane S,2009.Influence of low Arctic sea-ice minima on anomalously cold Eurasian winters.Geophysical Research Letters,36(8):262-275.
Hu Z Y,Zhang C,Hu S Q et al.,2014.Temperature changes in Central Asia from 1979 to 2011 based on multiple datasets.Journal of Climate,27(3):1143-1167.
Inoue J,Masatake E H,Koutarou T,2012.The role of Barents Sea ice in the wintertime cyclone track and emergence of a warm-Arctic cold-Siberian anomaly.Journal of Climate,25(7):2561-2568.
Jiang D,Xiao W H,Wang J H et al.,2018.Evaluation of the effects of one cold wave on heating energy consumption in different regions of northern China.Energy,142:331-338.
Johnson N C,Xie S P,Kosaka Y et al.,2018.Increasing occurrence of cold and warm extremes during the recent global warming slowdown.Nature Communications,9(1):1724.doi:10.1038/s41467-018-04040-y.
Leng G Y,Tang Q H,Rayburg S,2015.Climate change impacts on meteorological,agricultural and hydrological droughts in China.Global and Planetary Change,126:23-34.
Lewis S C,King A D,Perkins-Kirkpatrick S E,2017.Defining a new normal for extremes in a warming world.Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,98(6):1139-1151.
Lhotka O,KyselyJ,2015.Characterizing joint effects of spatial extent,temperature magnitude and duration of heat waves and cold spells over Central Europe.International Journal of Climatology,35(7):1232-1244.
Li Z,Cao L J,Zhu Y N et al.,2016.Comparison of two homogenized datasets of daily maximum/mean/minimum temperature in China during 1960-2013.Journal of Meteorological Research,30(1):53-66.
Liu X F,Zhu X F,Pan Ya Z et al.,2015.Spatiotemporal changes of cold surges in Inner Mongolia between 1960and 2012.Journal of Geographical Sciences,25(3):259-273.
Luo D H,Yao Y,Dai A G et al.,2017a.Increased quasi stationarity and persistence of winter ural blocking and eurasian extreme cold events in response to Arctic warming.Part II:A theoretical explanation.Journal of Climate,30(10):3569-3587.
Luo J,Dai J M,Yang H et al.,2017b.Climatic characteristics of cold wave in Xinjiang during the period of1971-2014.Arid Zone Research,34(2):309-315.(in Chinese)
Meng X J,Wu Z F,Du H B et al.,2013.Spatio-temporal characteristics of cold wave over northeast China during1961-2010.Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,27(1):142-147.(in Chinese)
Ministry of Agriculture of the People’s Republic of China(MAC),1988-2017.Agricultural Statistics of China.Beijing:Chinese Agricultural Press.
Qian W H,Zhang W W,2007.Changes in cold wave events and warm winter in China during the last 46 years.Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,31(6):1266-1278.(in Chinese)
Sánchez-Benítez A,García-Herrera R,Barriopedro D et al.,2018.June 2017:The Earliest European summer mega-heatwave of reanalysis period.Geophysical Research Letters,45(4):1955-1962.
Schoetter R,Cattiaux J,Douville H,2015.Changes of western European heat wave characteristics projected by the CMIP5 ensemble.Climate Dynamics,45(5/6):1601-1616.
Screen J A,Deser C,Sun L T,2015.Reduced risk of North American cold extremes due to continued Arctic sea ice loss.Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,96(9):1489-1503.
Servino R N,Gomes L E D O,Bernardino A F,2018.Extreme weather impacts on tropical mangrove forests in the eastern Brazil marine ecoregion.Science of the Total Environment,628/629:233-240.
Tao Y W,Dai K,Dong Q et al.,2017.Extreme analysis and ensemble prediction verification on cold wave process in January 2016.Meteorological Monthly,43(10):1176-1185.(in Chinese)
Trenberth K E,2011.Changes in precipitation with climate change.Climate Research,47(1):123-138.
Wang B L,Zhang M J,Wei J L et al.,2013.Changes in extreme precipitation over Northeast China,1960-2011.Quaternary International,298(17):177-186.
Wang C Z,Zhang Z,Zhou M G et al.,2017.Analyzing the spatial differences of the relationships between low temperature and health risk in China.Journal of Geo-information Science,19(3):336-345.(in Chinese)
Wang Z Y,Ding Y H,2006.Climate change of the cold wave frequency of China in the last 53 years and the possible reasons.Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,30(6):1068-1076.(in Chinese)
Wei J H,Lin Z H,2009.The leading mode of wintertime cold wave frequency in northern China during the last42 years and its association with Arctic Oscillation.Atmospheric Oceanic Science Letters,2(3):130-134.
Yao Y,Luo D H,Dai A G et al.,2017.Increased quasi stationarity and persistence of winter Ural Blocking and Eurasian extreme cold events in response to Arctic warming(Part I):Insights from observational analyses.Journal of Climate,30(10):3549-3568.
Yin J J,Overpeck J T,Peyser C et al.,2018.Big jump of record warm global mean surface temperature in2014-2016 related to unusually large oceanic heat releases.Geophysical Research Letters,45(2):1069-1078.
Anagnostopoulou C,Tolika K,Lazoglou G et al.,2017.The exceptionally cold January of 2017 over the Balkan Peninsula:A climatological and synoptic analysis.Atmosphere,8(12):252.doi:10.3390/atmos8120252.
Braga A L F,Zanobetti A,Schwartz J,2002.The effect of weather on respiratory and cardiovascular deaths in 12US cities.Environmental Health Perspectives,110(9):859-863.
Chen Y L,Chen N,Ma J R et al.,2010.Variety of Ningxia cold waves in the last 48 years and its possible reasons.Journal of Natural Resources,25(6):939-951.(in Chinese)
Cohen J,Screen J A,Furtado J C et al.,2014.Recent Arctic amplification and extreme mid-latitude weather.Nature Geoscience,7(9):627-637.
Ding T,Qian W H,Yan Z W,2009.Characteristics and changes of cold surge events over China during1960-2007.Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters,2(6):339-344.
Dong S,Huang W N,Li X et al.,2017.Study on temporal and spatial characteristics of cold waves in Shandong Province of China.Natural Hazards,88(1):191-219.
Gonzalez-Hidalgo J C,Pe?a-Angulo D,Brunetti M et al.,2016.Recent trend in temperature evolution in Spanish mainland(1951-2010):From warming to hiatus.International Journal of Climatology,36(6):2405-2416.
Gronlund C J,Zanobetti A,Wellenius G A et al.,2016.Vulnerability to renal,heat and respiratory hospitalizations during extreme heat among US elderly.Climatic Change,136(3):631-645.
Ha K J,Yun K S,2012.Climate change effects on tropical night days in Seoul,Korea.Theoretical and Applied Climatology,109(1/2):191-203.
Honda M,Inoue J,Yamane S,2009.Influence of low Arctic sea-ice minima on anomalously cold Eurasian winters.Geophysical Research Letters,36(8):262-275.
Hu Z Y,Zhang C,Hu S Q et al.,2014.Temperature changes in Central Asia from 1979 to 2011 based on multiple datasets.Journal of Climate,27(3):1143-1167.
Inoue J,Masatake E H,Koutarou T,2012.The role of Barents Sea ice in the wintertime cyclone track and emergence of a warm-Arctic cold-Siberian anomaly.Journal of Climate,25(7):2561-2568.
Jiang D,Xiao W H,Wang J H et al.,2018.Evaluation of the effects of one cold wave on heating energy consumption in different regions of northern China.Energy,142:331-338.
Johnson N C,Xie S P,Kosaka Y et al.,2018.Increasing occurrence of cold and warm extremes during the recent global warming slowdown.Nature Communications,9(1):1724.doi:10.1038/s41467-018-04040-y.
Leng G Y,Tang Q H,Rayburg S,2015.Climate change impacts on meteorological,agricultural and hydrological droughts in China.Global and Planetary Change,126:23-34.
Lewis S C,King A D,Perkins-Kirkpatrick S E,2017.Defining a new normal for extremes in a warming world.Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,98(6):1139-1151.
Lhotka O,KyselyJ,2015.Characterizing joint effects of spatial extent,temperature magnitude and duration of heat waves and cold spells over Central Europe.International Journal of Climatology,35(7):1232-1244.
Li Z,Cao L J,Zhu Y N et al.,2016.Comparison of two homogenized datasets of daily maximum/mean/minimum temperature in China during 1960-2013.Journal of Meteorological Research,30(1):53-66.
Liu X F,Zhu X F,Pan Ya Z et al.,2015.Spatiotemporal changes of cold surges in Inner Mongolia between 1960and 2012.Journal of Geographical Sciences,25(3):259-273.
Luo D H,Yao Y,Dai A G et al.,2017a.Increased quasi stationarity and persistence of winter ural blocking and eurasian extreme cold events in response to Arctic warming.Part II:A theoretical explanation.Journal of Climate,30(10):3569-3587.
Luo J,Dai J M,Yang H et al.,2017b.Climatic characteristics of cold wave in Xinjiang during the period of1971-2014.Arid Zone Research,34(2):309-315.(in Chinese)
Meng X J,Wu Z F,Du H B et al.,2013.Spatio-temporal characteristics of cold wave over northeast China during1961-2010.Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,27(1):142-147.(in Chinese)
Ministry of Agriculture of the People’s Republic of China(MAC),1988-2017.Agricultural Statistics of China.Beijing:Chinese Agricultural Press.
Qian W H,Zhang W W,2007.Changes in cold wave events and warm winter in China during the last 46 years.Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,31(6):1266-1278.(in Chinese)
Sánchez-Benítez A,García-Herrera R,Barriopedro D et al.,2018.June 2017:The Earliest European summer mega-heatwave of reanalysis period.Geophysical Research Letters,45(4):1955-1962.
Schoetter R,Cattiaux J,Douville H,2015.Changes of western European heat wave characteristics projected by the CMIP5 ensemble.Climate Dynamics,45(5/6):1601-1616.
Screen J A,Deser C,Sun L T,2015.Reduced risk of North American cold extremes due to continued Arctic sea ice loss.Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,96(9):1489-1503.
Servino R N,Gomes L E D O,Bernardino A F,2018.Extreme weather impacts on tropical mangrove forests in the eastern Brazil marine ecoregion.Science of the Total Environment,628/629:233-240.
Tao Y W,Dai K,Dong Q et al.,2017.Extreme analysis and ensemble prediction verification on cold wave process in January 2016.Meteorological Monthly,43(10):1176-1185.(in Chinese)
Trenberth K E,2011.Changes in precipitation with climate change.Climate Research,47(1):123-138.
Wang B L,Zhang M J,Wei J L et al.,2013.Changes in extreme precipitation over Northeast China,1960-2011.Quaternary International,298(17):177-186.
Wang C Z,Zhang Z,Zhou M G et al.,2017.Analyzing the spatial differences of the relationships between low temperature and health risk in China.Journal of Geo-information Science,19(3):336-345.(in Chinese)
Wang Z Y,Ding Y H,2006.Climate change of the cold wave frequency of China in the last 53 years and the possible reasons.Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,30(6):1068-1076.(in Chinese)
Wei J H,Lin Z H,2009.The leading mode of wintertime cold wave frequency in northern China during the last42 years and its association with Arctic Oscillation.Atmospheric Oceanic Science Letters,2(3):130-134.
Yao Y,Luo D H,Dai A G et al.,2017.Increased quasi stationarity and persistence of winter Ural Blocking and Eurasian extreme cold events in response to Arctic warming(Part I):Insights from observational analyses.Journal of Climate,30(10):3549-3568.
Yin J J,Overpeck J T,Peyser C et al.,2018.Big jump of record warm global mean surface temperature in2014-2016 related to unusually large oceanic heat releases.Geophysical Research Letters,45(2):1069-1078.