黄土高原小流域次降雨径流深预报模型
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摘要
为了建立结构简单、计算方便的小流域次降雨径流深预报模型,收集黄土高原丘陵沟壑区第Ⅰ、Ⅱ、Ⅲ、Ⅴ副区和高塬沟壑区57个小流域2 424场次降雨径流资料,用1 700场(70%)降雨径流资料分析影响次降雨径流深的流域特征因素和降雨因素,筛选出影响小流域次降雨径流深的主要因子,并基于以上主要因子建立小流域次降雨径流深预报模型,利用剩余的724场(30%)降雨径流数据进行模型验证。结果表明:流域面积、流域狭长度、次降雨量和平均降雨强度是影响黄土高原小流域次降雨径流深的主要因子;基于这4个因子建立黄土高原不同区域小流域次降雨径流深预报模型,模型效率系数>0.542,模型验证的效率系数>0.410。所建模型结构简单、参数易于获取,具有一定的精度和实用性,对于黄土高原不同区域小流域的综合治理规划,特别是水土保持工程措施的设计具有重要意义。
Situated in northwestern China,the Loess Plateau is covered with loose,fine,uniform,and highly erodible aeolian deposits. The climate varies from semi-arid to sub-humid,with heavy short storms. Because of the erodible soils,steep slopes,heavy storms,low vegetation cover and inappropriate land use,it is one of the most eroded regions in the world. Such serious soil erosion has slowed down socio-economic and environmental development by its direct and indirect influence in this region. Many researchers have realized the seriousness of this issue and started the study of the ways to conserve soil and water,in order to achieve sustainable development of the socio-economic environment by controlling soil erosion and restoring the disturbed ecosystem. They found that rainfall event based runoff in small watersheds was one of the key ways to study soil erosion in the Loess Plateau. However,most of the researchers only focus on subzone Ⅰ. The precipitation and the watershed geometry were divergent at different subzones because of the difference of the climate,soil,shape,and land use. So,it is necessary for the other subzones to develop a rainfall event based runoff prediction model for small watersheds in the Loess Plateau. In this study,we collected precipitation and runoff date from 57 small watersheds andbuilt a database which included 2 424 rainfall events distributed in the subzones Ⅰ,Ⅱ,Ⅲ,Ⅴ and the Plateau subzone,in the Loess Plateau. We simulated the relationship between the runoff depth and the parameters which represent precipitation and watershed geometry,so as to sort out the dominant factors affecting runoff depth in the Loess Plateau. The model was developed based on 1 700( 70%) rainfall events data,and the rest was used for validation. Results showed that the watershed area,the watershed shape,the rainfall amount and the average rainfall intensity were the dominant factors affecting runoff depth in the Loess Plateau. The non-linear regression models were developed based on the four factors for different subzones with the NSE greater than 0. 542. The NSE of validation was greater than 0. 410. The results showed that runoff depth is negatively correlated with the watershed area,but positively correlated with the shape of the watershed,the rainfall amount and the average rainfall intensity. The impacts of the precipitation and the watershed geometry on runoff depth were similar at different subzones,but the strength of the impacts varied at different subzones. The models are accurate for different subzones,have a simple structure,and the parameters were easy to obtain. So,they can be popularized to different regions in the Loess Plateau. Our results are helpful to the comprehensive management of small watershed planning in the Loess Plateau,especially for the design of soil and water conservation measures.
Situated in northwestern China,the Loess Plateau is covered with loose,fine,uniform,and highly erodible aeolian deposits. The climate varies from semi-arid to sub-humid,with heavy short storms. Because of the erodible soils,steep slopes,heavy storms,low vegetation cover and inappropriate land use,it is one of the most eroded regions in the world. Such serious soil erosion has slowed down socio-economic and environmental development by its direct and indirect influence in this region. Many researchers have realized the seriousness of this issue and started the study of the ways to conserve soil and water,in order to achieve sustainable development of the socio-economic environment by controlling soil erosion and restoring the disturbed ecosystem. They found that rainfall event based runoff in small watersheds was one of the key ways to study soil erosion in the Loess Plateau. However,most of the researchers only focus on subzone Ⅰ. The precipitation and the watershed geometry were divergent at different subzones because of the difference of the climate,soil,shape,and land use. So,it is necessary for the other subzones to develop a rainfall event based runoff prediction model for small watersheds in the Loess Plateau. In this study,we collected precipitation and runoff date from 57 small watersheds andbuilt a database which included 2 424 rainfall events distributed in the subzones Ⅰ,Ⅱ,Ⅲ,Ⅴ and the Plateau subzone,in the Loess Plateau. We simulated the relationship between the runoff depth and the parameters which represent precipitation and watershed geometry,so as to sort out the dominant factors affecting runoff depth in the Loess Plateau. The model was developed based on 1 700( 70%) rainfall events data,and the rest was used for validation. Results showed that the watershed area,the watershed shape,the rainfall amount and the average rainfall intensity were the dominant factors affecting runoff depth in the Loess Plateau. The non-linear regression models were developed based on the four factors for different subzones with the NSE greater than 0. 542. The NSE of validation was greater than 0. 410. The results showed that runoff depth is negatively correlated with the watershed area,but positively correlated with the shape of the watershed,the rainfall amount and the average rainfall intensity. The impacts of the precipitation and the watershed geometry on runoff depth were similar at different subzones,but the strength of the impacts varied at different subzones. The models are accurate for different subzones,have a simple structure,and the parameters were easy to obtain. So,they can be popularized to different regions in the Loess Plateau. Our results are helpful to the comprehensive management of small watershed planning in the Loess Plateau,especially for the design of soil and water conservation measures.
引文
[1]龚时旸,蒋德麒.黄河中游黄土丘陵沟壑区沟道小流域的水土流失及治理[J].中国科学,1978,8(6):672-678
[2]蔡强国,刘纪根,刘前进.岔巴沟流域次暴雨产沙统计模型[J].地理研究,2004,23(4):433-439
[3]江忠善,宋文经.黄河中游黄土丘陵沟壑区小流域产沙量计算[C]∥第一次河流泥沙国际学术讨论会论文集.北京:光华出版社,1980:63-72
[4]田永宏,郭玉梅.黄丘一区一次降雨条件下的产流产沙计算[J].中国水土保持,1997(2):14-18
[5]曹文洪,张启舜.黄土地区一次暴雨产沙数学模型的研究[J].泥沙研究,1993,(1):1-13
[6]蔡强国,陆兆熊,王贵平.黄土丘陵沟壑区典型小流域侵蚀产沙过程模型[J].地理学报,1996,51(2):108-117
[7]毕华兴,朱金兆.晋西黄土区小流域场暴雨径流泥沙模型研究[J].北京林业大学学报,1998,20(6):14-19
[8]牟金泽,熊贵枢.陕北小流域产沙量预报及水土保持措施拦沙计算[C]∥第一次河流泥沙国际学术讨论会文集.北京:光华出版社,1980:73-82
[9]周玲微,雷廷武,武阳.岔巴沟流域次暴雨产流无量纲模型[J].农业工程学报,2010,26(11):54-60
[10]王占礼,黄新会,牛振华.国内主要流域侵蚀产沙模型评述[J].水土保持研究,2004,11(4):28-33
[11]李占斌.黄土地区小流域次暴雨侵蚀产沙研究[J].西安理工大学学报,1996,12(3):177-183
[12]王佩兰,郝建忠,熊运阜.黄土地区小流域降雨径流模型探讨[J].水土保持学报,1988,2(2):40-48
[13]刘昌明,洪宝鑫,曾明煊,等.黄土高原暴雨径流预报关系初步实验研究[J].科学通报,1965,2(2):158-161
[14]尹国康,陈钦峦.黄土高原小流域特性指标与产沙统计模式[J].地理学报,1989,44(1):32-44
[15]王孟楼,张仁.陕北岔巴沟流域次暴雨产沙模型的研究[J].水土保持学报,1990,4(1):11-18
[16]唐克丽.黄土高原地区土壤侵蚀区域特征及其治理途径[M].北京:中国科学技术出版社,1991:2-20
[17]李天杰,郑应顺,王云.土壤地理学[M].北京:高等教育出版社,1983:260-264
[18]卢金发.黄河中游流域地貌形态对流域产沙量的影响[J].地理研究,2002,21(2):171-178
[19]黄秉维.编制黄河中游流域土壤侵蚀分区图的经验教训[J].科学通报,1955,1(12):15-21
[2]蔡强国,刘纪根,刘前进.岔巴沟流域次暴雨产沙统计模型[J].地理研究,2004,23(4):433-439
[3]江忠善,宋文经.黄河中游黄土丘陵沟壑区小流域产沙量计算[C]∥第一次河流泥沙国际学术讨论会论文集.北京:光华出版社,1980:63-72
[4]田永宏,郭玉梅.黄丘一区一次降雨条件下的产流产沙计算[J].中国水土保持,1997(2):14-18
[5]曹文洪,张启舜.黄土地区一次暴雨产沙数学模型的研究[J].泥沙研究,1993,(1):1-13
[6]蔡强国,陆兆熊,王贵平.黄土丘陵沟壑区典型小流域侵蚀产沙过程模型[J].地理学报,1996,51(2):108-117
[7]毕华兴,朱金兆.晋西黄土区小流域场暴雨径流泥沙模型研究[J].北京林业大学学报,1998,20(6):14-19
[8]牟金泽,熊贵枢.陕北小流域产沙量预报及水土保持措施拦沙计算[C]∥第一次河流泥沙国际学术讨论会文集.北京:光华出版社,1980:73-82
[9]周玲微,雷廷武,武阳.岔巴沟流域次暴雨产流无量纲模型[J].农业工程学报,2010,26(11):54-60
[10]王占礼,黄新会,牛振华.国内主要流域侵蚀产沙模型评述[J].水土保持研究,2004,11(4):28-33
[11]李占斌.黄土地区小流域次暴雨侵蚀产沙研究[J].西安理工大学学报,1996,12(3):177-183
[12]王佩兰,郝建忠,熊运阜.黄土地区小流域降雨径流模型探讨[J].水土保持学报,1988,2(2):40-48
[13]刘昌明,洪宝鑫,曾明煊,等.黄土高原暴雨径流预报关系初步实验研究[J].科学通报,1965,2(2):158-161
[14]尹国康,陈钦峦.黄土高原小流域特性指标与产沙统计模式[J].地理学报,1989,44(1):32-44
[15]王孟楼,张仁.陕北岔巴沟流域次暴雨产沙模型的研究[J].水土保持学报,1990,4(1):11-18
[16]唐克丽.黄土高原地区土壤侵蚀区域特征及其治理途径[M].北京:中国科学技术出版社,1991:2-20
[17]李天杰,郑应顺,王云.土壤地理学[M].北京:高等教育出版社,1983:260-264
[18]卢金发.黄河中游流域地貌形态对流域产沙量的影响[J].地理研究,2002,21(2):171-178
[19]黄秉维.编制黄河中游流域土壤侵蚀分区图的经验教训[J].科学通报,1955,1(12):15-21