全球模式对华北区域性强降水中期预报能力检验
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摘要
选取2010—2016年夏季华北70个典型强降水个例,根据环流形势场,将其分为低涡型、西来槽型和切变线型。然后,利用降水空间检验法(MODE方法),通过对比质心距离、轴角以及纵横比等要素,讨论了几种常规业务模式对华北地区夏季强降水的中期预报能力。结果表明:ECMWF模式和T639模式对低涡型强降水预报能力较差;当实况强降水落区范围较大时,ECMWF模式和T639模式中期预报的雨带为狭长型并呈东北—西南向,预报与实况较为一致,但两种模式预报的降水落区均较实况偏西、偏南;这两种模式对较小面积降水,其预报的降水范围较实况偏大,而对较大面积降水,预报较实况明显偏小。
Seventy(70) typical heavy rainfall cases in North China during the summers from 2010 to 2016 were selected and divided into three categories, i.e. the vortex type, the west trough type and shear line type according to the atmospheric circulation. Then we verified the middle range forecasting abilities of several operational models to the regional heavy rainfall in summer in North China by using the MODE method and the contrast of the difference of centroidal distance, axis angel and aspect ratios, etc. The results show that ECMWF and T639 models cannot well forecast the vortex-typed regional heavy rainfall. When the area of heavy rainfall is large, the rain belt predicted by ECMWF and T639 models show a long-narrow shape in the northeast to southwest direction, which is consistent with observations. However, the location of heavy rainfall predicted by ECMWF and T639 models deviate to the south and to the west with respect to observations. The heavy rainfall area predicted by ECMWF and T639 models is bigger than observations for small area of rainfall cases, but far smaller for widespread rainfall cases.
Seventy(70) typical heavy rainfall cases in North China during the summers from 2010 to 2016 were selected and divided into three categories, i.e. the vortex type, the west trough type and shear line type according to the atmospheric circulation. Then we verified the middle range forecasting abilities of several operational models to the regional heavy rainfall in summer in North China by using the MODE method and the contrast of the difference of centroidal distance, axis angel and aspect ratios, etc. The results show that ECMWF and T639 models cannot well forecast the vortex-typed regional heavy rainfall. When the area of heavy rainfall is large, the rain belt predicted by ECMWF and T639 models show a long-narrow shape in the northeast to southwest direction, which is consistent with observations. However, the location of heavy rainfall predicted by ECMWF and T639 models deviate to the south and to the west with respect to observations. The heavy rainfall area predicted by ECMWF and T639 models is bigger than observations for small area of rainfall cases, but far smaller for widespread rainfall cases.
引文
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[2]熊秋芬.GRAPES_Meso模式的降水格点检验和站点检验分析[J].气象,2011,37(2):185-193
[3]张建海,诸晓明.数值预报产品和客观预报方法预报能力检验[J].气象,2006,32(2):58-63
[4]王雨.2004年主汛期各数值预报模式定量降水预报评估[J].应用气象学报,2006,17(3):316-324
[5]王亚男,智协飞.多模式降水集合预报的统计降尺度研究[J].暴雨灾害,2012,31(1):1-7
[6]牛若芸.2008年12月至2009年2月T639与ECMWF及日本模式中期预报性能检验[J].气象,2009,35(5):112-119
[7]Jolliffe I T,Stephenson D B.Forecast Verification:A Practitioner's Guidein Atmospheric Science[M].Sigapre:Wiley,2003:240
[8]Davis C A,Brown B G,Bullock R G.Object-based verification of precipitation forecasts(Ⅰ):Methodology and application to mesoscale rain areas[J].Mon Wea Rev,2006a,134(7):1 772-1 784
[9]尤凤春,王国荣,郭锐,等.MODE方法在降水预报检验中的应用分析[J].气象,2011,37(12):1498-1503
[10]刘凑华,牛若芸.基于目标的降水检验方法及应用[J].气象,2013,39(6):681-690
[11]徐双柱,张兵,谌伟.GRAPES模式对长江流域天气预报的检验分析[J].气象,2007,33(11):65-71
[12]周慧,崔应杰,胡江凯,等.T639模式对2008年长江流域重大灾害性降水天气过程预报性能的检验分析[J].气象,2010,36(9):60-67
[13]张文龙,崔晓鹏.近50 a华北暴雨研究主要进展[J].暴雨灾害,2012,31(4):384-391
[14]陈敏,郑祚芳,王迎春,等.2006年汛期北京地区中尺度数值业务降水预报检验[J].暴雨灾害,2007,26(2):109-117
[15]管成功,陈起英,佟华,等.T639L60全球中期预报系统预报试验和性能评估[J].气象,2008,34(6):11-16