WRF模式不同云参数化方案的暴雨预报能力检验及集成试验
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摘要
利用WRFV3. 6的8种微物理方案和6种积云参数化方案对湖北及其周边地区夏季12次暴雨过程进行回报,分析各种方案对暴雨预报的影响。结果显示,各种方案均能较好地预报出降水过程,但其降水强度和范围存在一定差异。当积云参数化方案为KF方案时,对Lin、WSM6、Thompson、Morrison 2-mom、CAM5. 1、WDM5、WDM6、NSSL 2-mom微物理方案做敏感性试验,发现CAM 5. 1方案优于其他7种微物理方案,M orrison 2-mom次之。当微物理方案为CAM 5. 1时,对KF、BM J、GD、SAS、G3D、Tiedtke积云参数化方案做敏感性试验,发现在不同量级降水预报中,6种积云参数化方案各有优劣。综合考虑,GD、SAS、Tiedtke积云参数化方案优于其他3种方案。在此基础上开展多方案集成试验,结果表明集合平均(ensemble mean,EMN)在一定程度上可以减少预报误差,降低单个成员预报的不确定性。
To evaluate the effect of various schemes on rainstorm forecast in summer in Hubei and its surrounding areas,eight microphysical schemes and six cumulus parameterization schemes of WRFV3. 6 are used to forecast 12 rainstorm cases.The results showthat the prediction effects of different schemes are not the same on different scales. For the eight microphysical schemes( Lin,WSM6,Thompson,Morrison 2-mom,CAM5. 1,WDM5,WDM6 and NSSL 2-mom) and KF cumulus parameterization scheme,combined with TS scores,anomaly correlation coefficient( ACC) and root mean square error( RMSE),it can be concluded that CAM5. 1 is better than others,followed by Morrison 2-mom.Under the condition of CAM5. 1,the sensitivity test results of six cumulus parameterization schemes( KF,BMJ,GD,SAS,G3 D and Tiedtke) indicate that the six schemes both have advantages and disadvantages in the precipitation prediction of different magnitudes.GD,SAS and Tiedtke are better than the other through synthetical consideration. On these bases,the ensemble forecasting experiments are carried out by the ensemble mean( EMN).The results showthat the method can reduce the forecast error and the uncertainty of individual member forecasts.
To evaluate the effect of various schemes on rainstorm forecast in summer in Hubei and its surrounding areas,eight microphysical schemes and six cumulus parameterization schemes of WRFV3. 6 are used to forecast 12 rainstorm cases.The results showthat the prediction effects of different schemes are not the same on different scales. For the eight microphysical schemes( Lin,WSM6,Thompson,Morrison 2-mom,CAM5. 1,WDM5,WDM6 and NSSL 2-mom) and KF cumulus parameterization scheme,combined with TS scores,anomaly correlation coefficient( ACC) and root mean square error( RMSE),it can be concluded that CAM5. 1 is better than others,followed by Morrison 2-mom.Under the condition of CAM5. 1,the sensitivity test results of six cumulus parameterization schemes( KF,BMJ,GD,SAS,G3 D and Tiedtke) indicate that the six schemes both have advantages and disadvantages in the precipitation prediction of different magnitudes.GD,SAS and Tiedtke are better than the other through synthetical consideration. On these bases,the ensemble forecasting experiments are carried out by the ensemble mean( EMN).The results showthat the method can reduce the forecast error and the uncertainty of individual member forecasts.
引文
Beljaars A C M,1995.The parametrization of surface fluxes in large-scale models under free convection[J].Quart J Roy Meteor Soc,121(522):255-270.
Cartwright T J,Krishnamurti T N,2010.Warm season mesoscale superensemble precipitation forecasts in the Southeastern United States[J].Wea Forecasting,22(4):873-886.
陈超辉,王铁,谭言科,等,2009a.多模式短期集合降水概率预报试验[J].大气科学学报,32(2):206-214.Chen C H,Wang T,Tan Y K,et al.,2009a.Experiments of multimodel short-range ensemble precipitation probability forecasts[J].Trans Atmos Sci,32(2):206-214.(in Chinese).
陈超辉,王铁,谭言科,等,2009b.2003年江淮汛期多模式短期集合预报方法研究[J].热带气象学报,25(4):449-457.Chen C H,Wang T,Tan Y K,et al.,2009b.Research of multi-model short-range ensemble forecasting techniques in forecasting rainy season over changjiang-huaihe basin in2003[J].J Trop Meteor,25(4):449-457.(in Chinese).
陈超辉,李崇银,谭言科,等,2010.基于交叉验证的多模式超级集合预报方法研究[J].气象学报,68(4):464-476.Chen C H,Li C Y,Tan Y K,et al.,2010.Research of the multi-model super-ensemble prediction based on crossvalidation[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,68(4):464-476.(in Chinese).
Chen F,Dudhia J,2001.Coupling an advanced land surface hydrology model with the Penn State NCAR MM5 modeling system.Part I:model implementation and sensitivity[J].Mon Wea Rev,129(4):569-585.
陈炯,郑永光,邓莲堂,等,2003.WRF模式中不同边界层参数化方案对2003年7月江淮暴雨的数值模拟及其比较[C]//中国气象学会.2003年年会论文集.北京:221-224.Chen J,Zhen Y G,Deng L T,et al.,2003.Numerical study and comparison analysis of rainstorm in July 2003 over Yangtze-Huaihe River Basin via different boundary layer physics parameterization schemes in WRF model[C]//China Meteorological Society.The2003 annual meeting of China Meteorology.Beijing:221-224.(in Chinese).
陈茂钦,徐海明,刘蕾,等,2012.WRF3.1微物理参数化方案对两例暴雨的集合预报试验及可预报性分析[J].气象科学,32(3):237-245.Chen MQ,Xu H M,Liu L,et al.,2012.Ensemble simulation and predictability analysis on rainstorms via WRFV3.1 with different microphysical parameterization schemes[J].J Meteor Sci,32(3):237-245.(in Chinese).
崔慧慧,智协飞,2013.基于TIGGE资料的地面气温延伸期多模式集成预报[J].大气科学学报,36(2):165-173.Cui H H,Zhi X F,2013.Multimodel ensemble forecasts of surface air temperature in the extended range using the TIGGE dataset[J].Trans Atmos Sci,36(2):165-173.(in Chinese).
杜钧,陈静,2010.单一值预报向概率预报转变的基础:谈谈集合预报及其带来的变革[J].气象,36(11):1-11.Du J,Chen J,2010.The basis of transition from single-value forecast to probability forecast:a discussion on ensemble forecast and its change[J].Meteorological,36(11):1-11.(in Chinese).
Dudhia J,1989.Numerical study of convection observed during the winter monsoon experiment using a mesoscale two-dimensional model[J].J Atmos Sci,46(46):3077-3107.
Grell G A,Dévényi D,2002.A generalized approach to parameterizing convection combining ensemble and data assimilation techniques[J].Geophys Res Lett,29(6):587-590.
Han J,Pan H L,2011.Revision of convection and vertical diffusion schemes in the NCEP global forecast system[J].Wea Forecasting,26(4):520-533.
He C F,Zhi X F,You Q L,et al.,2015.Multi-model ensemble forecasts of tropical cyclones in 2010 and 2011 based on the Kalman Filter method[J].Meteorology&Atmospheric Physics,127(4):467-479.
Hong S Y,2006.The WRF single-moment 6-class microphysics scheme(WSM6)[J].Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,42:129-151.
Hong S Y,Noh Y,Dudhia J,2006.A newvertical diffusion package with an explicit treatment of entrainment processes[J].Mon Wea Rev,134(9):2318-2341.
黄海波,陈春艳,朱雯娜,2011.WRF模式不同云微物理参数化方案及水平分辨率对降水预报效果的影响[J].气象科技,39(5):529-536.Huang H B,Chen C Y,Zhu W N,2011.Impacts of different cloud microphysical processes and horizontal resolutions of WRF model on precipitation forecast effect[J].Meteorological Science and Technology,39(5):529-536.(in Chinese).
Janjic Z I,1994.The Step-mountain eta coordinate model:further developments of the convection,viscous sublayer,and turbulence closure schemes[J].Mon Wea Rev,122(5):927-945.
Kain J S,Fritsch J M,1993.The representation of cumulus convection in numerical models[J].Meteor Soc,24:165-170.
Krishnamurti T N,Mishra A K,Chakraborty A,et al.,2009.Improving global model precipitation forecasts over India using downscaling and the FSUsuperensemble.Part I:1-5-day forecasts[J].Mon Wea Rev,137:2736-2757.
李响,2012.WRF模式中积云对流参数化方案对西北太平洋台风路径与强度模拟的影响[J].中国科学:地球科学,42(12):1966-1978.Li X,2012.Sensitivity of WRF simulated typhoon track and intensity over the Northwest Pacific Ocean to cumulus schemes[J].Science China:Earth Sciences,42(12):1966-1978.(in Chinese).
廖镜彪,王雪梅,夏北成,等,2012.WRF模式中微物理和积云参数化方案的对比试验[J].热带气象学报,28(4):461-470.Liao J B,Wang XM,Xia B C,et al.,2012.The effects of different physics and cumulus parameterization schemes in WRF on heavy rainfall simulation in PRD[J].JTrop Meteor,28(4):461-470.(in Chinese).
Lim K S S,Hong S Y,2010.Development of an effective double-moment cloud microphysics scheme with prognostic cloud condensation nuclei(CCN)for weather and climate models[J].Mon Wea Rev,138:1587-1612.
Lin Y L,1983.Bulk parameterization of the snowfield in a cloud model[J].J Appl Meteor,22(6):1065-1092.
Mansell E R,Ziegler C L,Bruning E C,2010.Simulated electrification of a small thunderstorm with two-moment bulk microphysics[J].J Atmos Sci,67(1):171-194.
Mlawer E J,Taubman S J,Brown P D,et al.,1997.Radiative transfer for inhomogeneous atmospheres:RRTM,a validated correlated-k model for the longwave[J].J Geophys Res Atmos,102(14):16663-16682.
Morrison H,Thompson G,Tatarskii V,2009.Impact of cloud microphysics on the development of trailing stratiform precipitation in a simulated squall line:comparison of one-and two-moment schemes[J].Mon Wea Rev,137(3):991-1007.
单云鹏,银燕,肖辉,2014.双参微物理方案对一次强降水过程的数值试验[J].气象科学,34(1):1-9.Shan Y P,Yin Y,Xiao H,2014.Asensitivity experiment of forecasting precipitation with double-moment microphysics schemes in WRF model[J].J Meteor Sci,34(1):1-9.(in Chinese).
Thompson G,Field P,Rasmussen R M,et al.,2008.Explicit forecasts of winter precipitation using an improved bulk microphysics scheme.Part II:implementation of a newsnowparameterization[J].Mon Wea Rev,136(12):5095-5115.
屠妮妮,何光碧,张利红,2011.WRF模式中不同积云对流参数化方案对比试验[J].高原山地气象研究,31(2):18-25.Tu N N,He G B,Zhang L H,2011.Simulation test on the effects of various cumulus parameterization schemes in WRF model[J].Plateau and Mountain Meteorology,31(2):18-25.(in Chinese).
王佳,梅钦,陈钰文,2017.WRF模式不同微物理方案水凝物的预报能力检验与集成试验[J].气象,43(5):552-559.Wang J,Mei Q,Chen Y W,2017.Performance verification and ensemble experiments of hydrometeors forecasting by different microphysical schemes in WRF model[J].Meteor Mon,43(5):552-559.(in Chinese).
Zhang C,Wang Y,Hamilton K,2011.Improved representation of boundary layer clouds over the southeast pacific in ARW-WRF using a modified Tiedtke cumulus parameterization scheme[J].Mon Wea Rev,139(11):3489-3513.
张大林,1998.各种非绝热物理过程在中尺度模式中的作用[J].大气科学,22(4):548-561.Zhang D L,1998.Roles of various nonadiabatic physical processes in mesoscale models[J].Chin J Atmos Sci,22(4):166-179.(in Chinese).
张涵斌,智协飞,王亚男,等,2015.基于TIGGE资料的西太平洋热带气旋多模式集成预报方法比较[J].气象,41(9):1058-1067.Zhang H B,Zhi X F,Wang Y N,et al.,2015.Comparison of multimodel ensemble methods for western pacific tropical cyclone forecast based on TIGGE data[J].Meteor Mon,41(9):1058-1067.(in Chinese).
智协飞,孙晶,周文友,2015.2009年夏季西太平洋台风的集合预报和多模式集成预报试验[J].大气科学学报,38(5):633-640.Zhi X F,Sun J,Zhou W Y,2015.Ensemble and multimodel ensemble forecasts of western Pacific typhoons during summer 2009[J].Trans Atmos Sci,38(5):633-640.(in Chinese).
智协飞,周红梅,王姝苏,等,2017.CMIP5多模式对东亚地区地面气温年际变率的回报研究[J].大气科学学报,40(4):529-540.Zhi X F,Zhou H M,Wang S S,et al.,2017.Prediction of interannual variability of East Asian surface air temperature based on CMIP5 data[J].Trans Atmos Sci,40(4):529-540.(in Chinese).
Cartwright T J,Krishnamurti T N,2010.Warm season mesoscale superensemble precipitation forecasts in the Southeastern United States[J].Wea Forecasting,22(4):873-886.
陈超辉,王铁,谭言科,等,2009a.多模式短期集合降水概率预报试验[J].大气科学学报,32(2):206-214.Chen C H,Wang T,Tan Y K,et al.,2009a.Experiments of multimodel short-range ensemble precipitation probability forecasts[J].Trans Atmos Sci,32(2):206-214.(in Chinese).
陈超辉,王铁,谭言科,等,2009b.2003年江淮汛期多模式短期集合预报方法研究[J].热带气象学报,25(4):449-457.Chen C H,Wang T,Tan Y K,et al.,2009b.Research of multi-model short-range ensemble forecasting techniques in forecasting rainy season over changjiang-huaihe basin in2003[J].J Trop Meteor,25(4):449-457.(in Chinese).
陈超辉,李崇银,谭言科,等,2010.基于交叉验证的多模式超级集合预报方法研究[J].气象学报,68(4):464-476.Chen C H,Li C Y,Tan Y K,et al.,2010.Research of the multi-model super-ensemble prediction based on crossvalidation[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,68(4):464-476.(in Chinese).
Chen F,Dudhia J,2001.Coupling an advanced land surface hydrology model with the Penn State NCAR MM5 modeling system.Part I:model implementation and sensitivity[J].Mon Wea Rev,129(4):569-585.
陈炯,郑永光,邓莲堂,等,2003.WRF模式中不同边界层参数化方案对2003年7月江淮暴雨的数值模拟及其比较[C]//中国气象学会.2003年年会论文集.北京:221-224.Chen J,Zhen Y G,Deng L T,et al.,2003.Numerical study and comparison analysis of rainstorm in July 2003 over Yangtze-Huaihe River Basin via different boundary layer physics parameterization schemes in WRF model[C]//China Meteorological Society.The2003 annual meeting of China Meteorology.Beijing:221-224.(in Chinese).
陈茂钦,徐海明,刘蕾,等,2012.WRF3.1微物理参数化方案对两例暴雨的集合预报试验及可预报性分析[J].气象科学,32(3):237-245.Chen MQ,Xu H M,Liu L,et al.,2012.Ensemble simulation and predictability analysis on rainstorms via WRFV3.1 with different microphysical parameterization schemes[J].J Meteor Sci,32(3):237-245.(in Chinese).
崔慧慧,智协飞,2013.基于TIGGE资料的地面气温延伸期多模式集成预报[J].大气科学学报,36(2):165-173.Cui H H,Zhi X F,2013.Multimodel ensemble forecasts of surface air temperature in the extended range using the TIGGE dataset[J].Trans Atmos Sci,36(2):165-173.(in Chinese).
杜钧,陈静,2010.单一值预报向概率预报转变的基础:谈谈集合预报及其带来的变革[J].气象,36(11):1-11.Du J,Chen J,2010.The basis of transition from single-value forecast to probability forecast:a discussion on ensemble forecast and its change[J].Meteorological,36(11):1-11.(in Chinese).
Dudhia J,1989.Numerical study of convection observed during the winter monsoon experiment using a mesoscale two-dimensional model[J].J Atmos Sci,46(46):3077-3107.
Grell G A,Dévényi D,2002.A generalized approach to parameterizing convection combining ensemble and data assimilation techniques[J].Geophys Res Lett,29(6):587-590.
Han J,Pan H L,2011.Revision of convection and vertical diffusion schemes in the NCEP global forecast system[J].Wea Forecasting,26(4):520-533.
He C F,Zhi X F,You Q L,et al.,2015.Multi-model ensemble forecasts of tropical cyclones in 2010 and 2011 based on the Kalman Filter method[J].Meteorology&Atmospheric Physics,127(4):467-479.
Hong S Y,2006.The WRF single-moment 6-class microphysics scheme(WSM6)[J].Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,42:129-151.
Hong S Y,Noh Y,Dudhia J,2006.A newvertical diffusion package with an explicit treatment of entrainment processes[J].Mon Wea Rev,134(9):2318-2341.
黄海波,陈春艳,朱雯娜,2011.WRF模式不同云微物理参数化方案及水平分辨率对降水预报效果的影响[J].气象科技,39(5):529-536.Huang H B,Chen C Y,Zhu W N,2011.Impacts of different cloud microphysical processes and horizontal resolutions of WRF model on precipitation forecast effect[J].Meteorological Science and Technology,39(5):529-536.(in Chinese).
Janjic Z I,1994.The Step-mountain eta coordinate model:further developments of the convection,viscous sublayer,and turbulence closure schemes[J].Mon Wea Rev,122(5):927-945.
Kain J S,Fritsch J M,1993.The representation of cumulus convection in numerical models[J].Meteor Soc,24:165-170.
Krishnamurti T N,Mishra A K,Chakraborty A,et al.,2009.Improving global model precipitation forecasts over India using downscaling and the FSUsuperensemble.Part I:1-5-day forecasts[J].Mon Wea Rev,137:2736-2757.
李响,2012.WRF模式中积云对流参数化方案对西北太平洋台风路径与强度模拟的影响[J].中国科学:地球科学,42(12):1966-1978.Li X,2012.Sensitivity of WRF simulated typhoon track and intensity over the Northwest Pacific Ocean to cumulus schemes[J].Science China:Earth Sciences,42(12):1966-1978.(in Chinese).
廖镜彪,王雪梅,夏北成,等,2012.WRF模式中微物理和积云参数化方案的对比试验[J].热带气象学报,28(4):461-470.Liao J B,Wang XM,Xia B C,et al.,2012.The effects of different physics and cumulus parameterization schemes in WRF on heavy rainfall simulation in PRD[J].JTrop Meteor,28(4):461-470.(in Chinese).
Lim K S S,Hong S Y,2010.Development of an effective double-moment cloud microphysics scheme with prognostic cloud condensation nuclei(CCN)for weather and climate models[J].Mon Wea Rev,138:1587-1612.
Lin Y L,1983.Bulk parameterization of the snowfield in a cloud model[J].J Appl Meteor,22(6):1065-1092.
Mansell E R,Ziegler C L,Bruning E C,2010.Simulated electrification of a small thunderstorm with two-moment bulk microphysics[J].J Atmos Sci,67(1):171-194.
Mlawer E J,Taubman S J,Brown P D,et al.,1997.Radiative transfer for inhomogeneous atmospheres:RRTM,a validated correlated-k model for the longwave[J].J Geophys Res Atmos,102(14):16663-16682.
Morrison H,Thompson G,Tatarskii V,2009.Impact of cloud microphysics on the development of trailing stratiform precipitation in a simulated squall line:comparison of one-and two-moment schemes[J].Mon Wea Rev,137(3):991-1007.
单云鹏,银燕,肖辉,2014.双参微物理方案对一次强降水过程的数值试验[J].气象科学,34(1):1-9.Shan Y P,Yin Y,Xiao H,2014.Asensitivity experiment of forecasting precipitation with double-moment microphysics schemes in WRF model[J].J Meteor Sci,34(1):1-9.(in Chinese).
Thompson G,Field P,Rasmussen R M,et al.,2008.Explicit forecasts of winter precipitation using an improved bulk microphysics scheme.Part II:implementation of a newsnowparameterization[J].Mon Wea Rev,136(12):5095-5115.
屠妮妮,何光碧,张利红,2011.WRF模式中不同积云对流参数化方案对比试验[J].高原山地气象研究,31(2):18-25.Tu N N,He G B,Zhang L H,2011.Simulation test on the effects of various cumulus parameterization schemes in WRF model[J].Plateau and Mountain Meteorology,31(2):18-25.(in Chinese).
王佳,梅钦,陈钰文,2017.WRF模式不同微物理方案水凝物的预报能力检验与集成试验[J].气象,43(5):552-559.Wang J,Mei Q,Chen Y W,2017.Performance verification and ensemble experiments of hydrometeors forecasting by different microphysical schemes in WRF model[J].Meteor Mon,43(5):552-559.(in Chinese).
Zhang C,Wang Y,Hamilton K,2011.Improved representation of boundary layer clouds over the southeast pacific in ARW-WRF using a modified Tiedtke cumulus parameterization scheme[J].Mon Wea Rev,139(11):3489-3513.
张大林,1998.各种非绝热物理过程在中尺度模式中的作用[J].大气科学,22(4):548-561.Zhang D L,1998.Roles of various nonadiabatic physical processes in mesoscale models[J].Chin J Atmos Sci,22(4):166-179.(in Chinese).
张涵斌,智协飞,王亚男,等,2015.基于TIGGE资料的西太平洋热带气旋多模式集成预报方法比较[J].气象,41(9):1058-1067.Zhang H B,Zhi X F,Wang Y N,et al.,2015.Comparison of multimodel ensemble methods for western pacific tropical cyclone forecast based on TIGGE data[J].Meteor Mon,41(9):1058-1067.(in Chinese).
智协飞,孙晶,周文友,2015.2009年夏季西太平洋台风的集合预报和多模式集成预报试验[J].大气科学学报,38(5):633-640.Zhi X F,Sun J,Zhou W Y,2015.Ensemble and multimodel ensemble forecasts of western Pacific typhoons during summer 2009[J].Trans Atmos Sci,38(5):633-640.(in Chinese).
智协飞,周红梅,王姝苏,等,2017.CMIP5多模式对东亚地区地面气温年际变率的回报研究[J].大气科学学报,40(4):529-540.Zhi X F,Zhou H M,Wang S S,et al.,2017.Prediction of interannual variability of East Asian surface air temperature based on CMIP5 data[J].Trans Atmos Sci,40(4):529-540.(in Chinese).