季节时间序列分析在新疆地区涂阳结核疫情预测预警中的应用
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摘要
目的探讨季节时间序列模型(seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average,SARIMA)在新疆涂阳肺结核疫情预测预警中的应用。方法收集新疆2005年1月-2015年6月涂阳肺结核月发病数建立时间序列分析模型,对2015年7-12月的月发病数进行预测并与实际发病数进行比较评价。结果新疆涂阳肺结核月发病数具有明显季节性,在3月和11月存在发病高峰,SARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1)12模型参数的回归系数假设检验结果 P<0. 001,与实际月发病数拟合效果良好,平均绝对百分比误差MAPE=7. 985%。结论 SARIMA模型能较好的拟合新疆涂阳肺结核疫情在时间上的变异趋势,用其进行预测效果良好,能够为肺结核疫情的预警防治提供参考。
Objective To explore the application of seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average( SARIMA) model in the prediction and early warning of epidemics of smear-positive tuberculosis in Xinjiang. Methods The monthly incidence of smear-positive tuberculosis in Xinjiang from January 2005 to June 2015 was collected to establish a time series analysis model. The monthly incidence from July to December in 2015 was predicted and compared with the actual incidence in the same period. Results The monthly incidence of smear-positive tuberculosis in Xinjiang showed obvious seasonal variations,and the incidence peaked in March and November. Hypothesis test result showed that the regression coefficient of the SARIMA( 0,1,1)( 0,1,1)12 model parameters was P<0.001,and the model had a good fitting effect for actual monthly incidence. The mean absolute percentage error( MAPE) was 7.985%. Conclusions The SARIMA model demonstrates goodness-of-fit in forecasting the changing trend of epidemics of smear-positive tuberculosis in Xinjiang,which provides references for early warning and prevention of tuberculosis epidemics.
Objective To explore the application of seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average( SARIMA) model in the prediction and early warning of epidemics of smear-positive tuberculosis in Xinjiang. Methods The monthly incidence of smear-positive tuberculosis in Xinjiang from January 2005 to June 2015 was collected to establish a time series analysis model. The monthly incidence from July to December in 2015 was predicted and compared with the actual incidence in the same period. Results The monthly incidence of smear-positive tuberculosis in Xinjiang showed obvious seasonal variations,and the incidence peaked in March and November. Hypothesis test result showed that the regression coefficient of the SARIMA( 0,1,1)( 0,1,1)12 model parameters was P<0.001,and the model had a good fitting effect for actual monthly incidence. The mean absolute percentage error( MAPE) was 7.985%. Conclusions The SARIMA model demonstrates goodness-of-fit in forecasting the changing trend of epidemics of smear-positive tuberculosis in Xinjiang,which provides references for early warning and prevention of tuberculosis epidemics.
引文
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[6]刘涛,王显军,姜宝法,等. SARIMA模型预测山东省手足口病发病趋势[J].中国卫生统计,2013,30(5):697-700.
[7]贺湘焱,丽扎·江阿别克,饶友婷,等. 2011-2015年新疆肺结核流行特征及空间聚集性分析[J].实用预防医学,2018,25(1):14-18.
[8]高华强. 2008-2012年绍兴市肺结核的流行病学特征分析[J].现代预防医学,2014,41(17):3082-3084.
[9]白丽琼.是危机,还是机遇?—湖南省桃江县发生学校结核病聚集性疫情的思考[J].实用预防医学,2018,25(1):1-2,61.
[10]杨津明,李月华,邰新蓉,等. 2010-2014年新疆维吾尔自治区学生肺结核疫情分析[J].结核病与肺部健康杂志,2015,4(3):184-188.
[2]陈伟,夏愔愔,李涛,等. 2015年全球及中国结核病疫情形势分析[J].结核病与肺部健康杂志,2016,5(1):32-36.
[3]林玫,崔哲哲,林定文,等.广西壮族自治区2010-2015年传染性肺结核时空特征分析[J].中华流行病学杂志,2017,38(9):1206-1211.
[4]Cao S,Feng W,Tam W,et al. A hybrid seasonal prediction model for tuberculosis incidence in China[J]. Bmc Med Inform Decis Mak,2013,13(1):1-7.
[5]唐咸艳,周颖,李峤,等.不同统计方法在手足口病季节性分析中的比较研究[J].中国卫生统计,2015,32(3):410-413.
[6]刘涛,王显军,姜宝法,等. SARIMA模型预测山东省手足口病发病趋势[J].中国卫生统计,2013,30(5):697-700.
[7]贺湘焱,丽扎·江阿别克,饶友婷,等. 2011-2015年新疆肺结核流行特征及空间聚集性分析[J].实用预防医学,2018,25(1):14-18.
[8]高华强. 2008-2012年绍兴市肺结核的流行病学特征分析[J].现代预防医学,2014,41(17):3082-3084.
[9]白丽琼.是危机,还是机遇?—湖南省桃江县发生学校结核病聚集性疫情的思考[J].实用预防医学,2018,25(1):1-2,61.
[10]杨津明,李月华,邰新蓉,等. 2010-2014年新疆维吾尔自治区学生肺结核疫情分析[J].结核病与肺部健康杂志,2015,4(3):184-188.