使用GRACE数据的地震高风险区可视化标识方法
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摘要
利用GRACE时变重力场数据,根据强震发生之前的重力变化异常规律,结合GIS强大的空间分析和地理信息可视化,确定了一种多危险级别的地震高风险区标识方法。其主要包括提取重力变化零等值线、提取重力变化高梯度区、识别高发震率的断层、不同危险级别的地震高风险区标识等4个步骤。并使用2015年全球震级6.0以上的地震对标识结果进行检验,发现使用5年时间尺度的重力变化异常数据,生成地震高风险标识图,来预测最接近重力变化时间的地震发生情况,预测的准确率最高。
According to GRACE time-variable gravity field data,the regulation of gravity change before earthquakes and GIS spatial analysis and geographic information visualization method,this article first puts forward a model to identify how dangerous a high level of seismic risk area is.It includes the following four steps:Extraction of the zero gravity change contour lines;Extraction of gravity-change gradient area;Identification of high risk faults;Identification of different risk levels of high earthquake risk area.Then the abnormal gravity data of a 5-year time scale is used to test this model and the identification map of high earthquake risk area is generated to predict the earthquake one year later after the gravity variation.The test shows that this model has a high prediction accuracy.
According to GRACE time-variable gravity field data,the regulation of gravity change before earthquakes and GIS spatial analysis and geographic information visualization method,this article first puts forward a model to identify how dangerous a high level of seismic risk area is.It includes the following four steps:Extraction of the zero gravity change contour lines;Extraction of gravity-change gradient area;Identification of high risk faults;Identification of different risk levels of high earthquake risk area.Then the abnormal gravity data of a 5-year time scale is used to test this model and the identification map of high earthquake risk area is generated to predict the earthquake one year later after the gravity variation.The test shows that this model has a high prediction accuracy.
引文
[1]贺巍,朱国豪,谭刚.地震预测方法概述[J].国际地震动态,2015,34(6):34-41
[2]张国庆,付广裕,周新.利用GRACE卫星数据提取苏门答腊地震同震和震后重力变化[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2015,35(2):303-308
[3]Cambiotti G,Bordoni A,Sabadini R,et al.GRACEGravity Data Help Constraining Seismic Models of the2004Sumatran Earthquake[J].Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth,2011,116(B10),doi.org/10.1029/2010JB007848
[4]Tanaka Y,Heki K.GRACE Seismology:Review and Perspective of Satellite Gravimetry for Earthquake Sciences[J].Journal of the Seismological Society of Japan,2017,69:69-85
[5]Zhan F B,Cai Z L,Zhu,Y,et al.A Geospatial Analytical System for Mapping Global Medium-Term Earthquake Probabilities[C].Proceedings of the 2012International Conference on Systems and Informatics(ICSAI 2012),Yantai,China,2012
[6]苏琴,杨永林,郑兵,等.4·20芦山7.0级地震预测思路及过程回顾[J].地震地质,2014,36(4):1 077-1 093
[7]许才军,龚正.GRACE时变重力数据的后处理方法研究进展[J].武汉大学学报·信息科学版,2016,41(4):503-510
[8]莫辉华,刘建栋,余斌彬,等.基于最小二乘配置和Matlab的重力异常研究[J].测绘地理信息,2015,40(1):25-28
[9]刘磊,姚宜斌,孔建.尼泊尔地震震前电离层异常变化特征[J].测绘地理信息,2016,41(4):13-17
[10]屠泓为,陆广海,孙洪斌.用R值评分法研究青海省1990~2006年以来的地震预报效能[J].高原地震,2007,19(3):13-16
[11]马宏生,刘杰,吴昊,等.基于R值评分的年度地震预报能力评价[J].地震,2004,24(2):31-37
[2]张国庆,付广裕,周新.利用GRACE卫星数据提取苏门答腊地震同震和震后重力变化[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2015,35(2):303-308
[3]Cambiotti G,Bordoni A,Sabadini R,et al.GRACEGravity Data Help Constraining Seismic Models of the2004Sumatran Earthquake[J].Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth,2011,116(B10),doi.org/10.1029/2010JB007848
[4]Tanaka Y,Heki K.GRACE Seismology:Review and Perspective of Satellite Gravimetry for Earthquake Sciences[J].Journal of the Seismological Society of Japan,2017,69:69-85
[5]Zhan F B,Cai Z L,Zhu,Y,et al.A Geospatial Analytical System for Mapping Global Medium-Term Earthquake Probabilities[C].Proceedings of the 2012International Conference on Systems and Informatics(ICSAI 2012),Yantai,China,2012
[6]苏琴,杨永林,郑兵,等.4·20芦山7.0级地震预测思路及过程回顾[J].地震地质,2014,36(4):1 077-1 093
[7]许才军,龚正.GRACE时变重力数据的后处理方法研究进展[J].武汉大学学报·信息科学版,2016,41(4):503-510
[8]莫辉华,刘建栋,余斌彬,等.基于最小二乘配置和Matlab的重力异常研究[J].测绘地理信息,2015,40(1):25-28
[9]刘磊,姚宜斌,孔建.尼泊尔地震震前电离层异常变化特征[J].测绘地理信息,2016,41(4):13-17
[10]屠泓为,陆广海,孙洪斌.用R值评分法研究青海省1990~2006年以来的地震预报效能[J].高原地震,2007,19(3):13-16
[11]马宏生,刘杰,吴昊,等.基于R值评分的年度地震预报能力评价[J].地震,2004,24(2):31-37